Who’s next to go?

[NCRaven]

When I read the title "Who's Next to Go?", my thoughts went to trade candidates.  So in that vein, the Mets are desperate for outfielders.  Anthony Santander is a good outfielder.  I'd be heavily scouting the Mets system right now.  Santander, Stewart and McKenna could all be available, but with far different levels of return.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

You have no ammo because you are so blind to the situation of this team right now.

You just don’t get it.  I’m not sure what needs to happen for you to understand where this team is and what they are doing but right now, it’s pretty clear you have no idea.

Sisco Is one of the countless players who did not successfully make the transition from AAA to the big leagues. His defense was never very good, and nobody ever denied it. The hope was that his offense would be good enough to compensate, and it has not been. That’s just all there is to it. You want to continue giving him playing time on the grounds that sustained playing time would fix his problems on offense.

Fair enough, we disagree on that. He has had plenty of playing time and his trends are downward.

You are willing to live with his defense. He’s one of the slowest runners in the game, and that won’t improve with time, his framing hasn’t improved, and he doesn’t seem to be able to apply tags or catch reliably. I am unclear whether those things would improve with time but they haven’t.

He's not part of the future. Even if his hitting improved, it would have to improve by a huge amount, and he has given no indication that that will happen, and his defense is what it is.

Even if “we are not trying to win,” There is no reason not to promote guys who could be an improvement over the players we currently have. Sisco can go before Severino or the other way around, I don’t care, but they both need to go. 
Sisco is bad and has given no indication he will ever not be bad. Perhaps you want to give him a longer leash, and that is your choice, but you do so out of faith and not because of evidence.

I am definitely a man of faith, but not in Sisco.

[Sports Guy]

Sisco had a 113 wRC+ last year and it was 97 the year before.  It’s just flat out wrong to say his offense hasn’t been good enough.  
 

He has 63 PA spread over 20 games this year.  Making judgements on his offense for that sample size is wrong.  
 

And his defense, at least his throwing, has improved.

Oh and btw, Severino isn’t good either and has no future.  At least it Sisco can hit like he has in the past and get on base, he has a chance to be something.

I don’t particularly like his chances but again, the team is terrible and you don’t have alternatives, so why not.  

[NCRaven]

I am not a fan of Severino, at all.  I would definitely play Sisco against righties every chance that they get.

[SteveA]

Thirteen hours and four pages already.   Definitely a topic of interest to us fans, as we watch this team play nightly.

But interestingly, it's probably NOT what Elias and company thinking about.   We are reacting to bad baseball and naturally want to see better.

But I doubt our team braintrust is thinking in those terms.   They have development plans for all the guys in the minors and are probably thinking in terms of when the time is right to bring those guys up, including any and all factors such as service time, whether they feel they have gotten the needed instruction or shown what they have to show in the minors, etc.

Sure, some severe cases of underperformance will force a change -- Matt Harvey might be the next in that category.   But in general, they aren't sitting there saying "the MLB team sucks at Position X, who can we bring up?".   They made a decision that they had seen enough of Ruiz and let him walk.   It may happen with Harvey.   Guys with options like Sisco may go down.   But for the most part, they have their own plan and timetable for all the important guys in the minors, and the performance of the guys at the big league level are not going to have TOO great an effect on those timetables.   

While we say things like "I've seen enough of [Player X], time to make a change", they simply don't care that much.   They are probably more interested in what is happening in Bowie than in Baltimore.   When we start saying "bring anyone up, let's make Mason McCoy our full time 3rd baseman and put Mickey Jannis on the pitching staff", they are concentrating on the far more important player development going on below.

So yeah, some guys will play themselves off the team.   But it won't be as many as most of us hope.   Because it's just not that important to the future of the team whether Rio Ruiz or Stevie Wilkerson is playing second base in June 2021, or how many more starts Harvey gets, or how much longer we use Valdez as our closer.   We can spend hours discussing those things, and we will, but they are secondary concerns to our front office.

What we do know is that in general, they have slow played bringing guys to the majors.   So we will probably be disappointed in how long it takes Rutschman, Baumann, Bradish, Vavra, and company to get here.   They WILL get here, but it will take longer than we think.   And guys sucking at the major league level will probably not accelerate the timetable very much.

It's an ugly truth that we are going to have to accept and live with.

[eddie83]

54 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Not with Severino or Sisco behind the plate...

Entertainment. 

[Camden_yardbird]

Fotlr those who want to get rid of Harvey, who do you want to take his place?  Have you given consideration that the pitcher replacing him might be worse, putting more strain on the bullpen?  Does that player have an innings limit this year?  Do you realize that despite having ERA above 6.00 Harvey has an xERA and xFIP below 5.00?  Are you going to jettison every pitcher who has three bad outings in a row?  Are you aware than Harvey's worst outing against Tampa Bay that Ed Hickok was behind the plate (universally one of the worst umpires in the league) and according game score cards only called 78% of strike correctly...

You have to get innings somewhere.  If Harvey is a 4.80 to 5.00 ERA pitcher he can be a valuable commodity.

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Camden_yardbird said:

Fotlr those who want to get rid of Harvey, who do you want to take his place?  Have you given consideration that the pitcher replacing him might be worse, putting more strain on the bullpen?  Does that player have an innings limit this year?  Do you realize that despite having ERA above 6.00 Harvey has an xERA and xFIP below 5.00?  Are you going to jettison every pitcher who has three bad outings in a row?  Are you aware than Harvey's worst outing against Tampa Bay that Ed Hickok was behind the plate (universally one of the worst umpires in the league) and according game score cards only called 78% of strike correctly...

You have to get innings somewhere.  If Harvey is a 4.80 to 5.00 ERA pitcher he can be a valuable commodity.

 

Replacing Harvey is no biggie if he continues to pitch poorly.  And he can go to the pen and provide some innings there.

Harvey hasn’t been good for years...so, this isn’t exactly some snap judgment by people.

[Philip]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sisco had a 113 wRC+ last year and it was 97 the year before.  It’s just flat out wrong to say his offense hasn’t been good enough.  
 

He has 63 PA spread over 20 games this year.  Making judgements on his offense for that sample size is wrong.  
 

And his defense, at least his throwing, has improved.

Oh and btw, Severino isn’t good either and has no future.  At least it Sisco can hit like he has in the past and get on base, he has a chance to be something.

I don’t particularly like his chances but again, the team is terrible and you don’t have alternatives, so why not.  

Why not? Because we DO have alternatives.

I’m not debating whether Sisco is better than Severino:each is bad.

Sisco had a 60 WRC in 2018, in 184 PAs. In ‘19 in about the same PAs he had a 97. Be still my heart. In 2020, yeah he had a 113, in only 121 PAs( SSS? Asking for a friend) but he also had a .321 BABIP which indicates he was lucky. In 2021, he’s had 63 ABs, which is definitely a SSS and no doubt. His K rate is down from ~33% to 22% but SSS. His walk rate is also way down, but SSS. Everything about 2021 is SSS, so you have to look at his career, and his career is dreadful. And that’s only his offense. His BABIP is low this season, so maybe he’s a bit unlucky. but His career fWAR is negative -.04. You don’t think Wynns can do better then that?

Tell me what your target for Sisco would be? What do you reasonably expect from him that would make you content to keep him on the team? I don’t mind no bat if the defense is outstanding( Mark Belanger says hi) and I can live with no glove if the Bat is terrific.

But Sisco is NEITHER.

What do you expect to see from Sisco? What are you waiting to see? And when will you stop waiting?

I expect to see someone else. I stopped waiting a while ago.

It is obvious that we disagree, and that is fine, you are still my Baltimore brother, but stop yammering about how I have no reason for wanting to get rid of him now. There’s plenty of reason. And that applies to several other guys as well.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sisco had a 113 wRC+ last year and it was 97 the year before.  It’s just flat out wrong to say his offense hasn’t been good enough.  
 

He has 63 PA spread over 20 games this year.  Making judgements on his offense for that sample size is wrong.  
 

And his defense, at least his throwing, has improved.

Oh and btw, Severino isn’t good either and has no future.  At least it Sisco can hit like he has in the past and get on base, he has a chance to be something.

I don’t particularly like his chances but again, the team is terrible and you don’t have alternatives, so why not.  

I’ve had many arguments with Philip over the last 1-2 years about Sisco, making many of the points you’re making.   But at this point I’m wondering what’s going on with his bat.   Yes, 63 PA over 47 games played by the team is not a lot, but it’s not materially different from the playing time he got in 2019-20 when he hit much better.   But he’s hitting way worse.  Exit velocity down 4 mph.    One barreled ball out of 42 balls he’s put in play.     He’s not hitting the ball hard at all when he makes contact, or in the air.   I’m about at the point where he needs a re-set at Norfolk to see if he can get something going.   I’m not confident at all that having him switch to 70% playing time instead of 30% at the major league level is going to make any difference right now.    

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

Why not? Because we DO have alternatives.

I’m not debating whether Sisco is better than Severino:each is bad.

Sisco had a 60 WRC in 2018, in 184 PAs. In ‘19 in about the same PAs he had a 97. Be still my heart. In 2020, yeah he had a 113, in only 121 PAs( SSS? Asking for a friend) but he also had a .321 BABIP which indicates he was lucky. In 2021, he’s had 63 ABs, which is definitely a SSS and no doubt. His K rate is down from ~33% to 22% but SSS. His walk rate is also way down, but SSS. Everything about 2021 is SSS, so you have to look at his career, and his career is dreadful. And that’s only his offense. His BABIP is low this season, so maybe he’s a bit unlucky. but His career fWAR is negative -.04. You don’t think Wynns can do better then that?

Tell me what your target for Sisco would be? What do you reasonably expect from him that would make you content to keep him on the team? I don’t mind no bat if the defense is outstanding( Mark Belanger says hi) and I can live with no glove if the Bat is terrific.

But Sisco is NEITHER.

What do you expect to see from Sisco? What are you waiting to see? And when will you stop waiting?

I expect to see someone else. I stopped waiting a while ago.

It is obvious that we disagree, and that is fine, you are still my Baltimore brother, but stop yammering about how I have no reason for wanting to get rid of him now. There’s plenty of reason. And that applies to several other guys as well.

No, we don’t have alternatives until Adley is brought up.  Wynns isnt an alternative.  Cumberland?  Maybe but I doubt it.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve had many arguments with Philip over the last 1-2 years about Sisco, making many of the points you’re making.   But at this point I’m wondering what’s going on with his bat.   Yes, 63 PA over 47 games played by the team is not a lot, but it’s not materially different from the playing time he got in 2019-20 when he hit much better.   But he’s hitting way worse.  Exit velocity down 4 mph.    One barreled ball out of 42 balls he’s put in play.     He’s not hitting the ball hard at all when he makes contact, or in the air.   I’m about at the point where he needs a re-set at Norfolk to see if he can get something going.   I’m not confident at all that having him switch to 70% playing time instead of 30% at the major league level is going to make any difference right now.    

Maybe not..but I would try because, wtf?

[Camden_yardbird]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Replacing Harvey is no biggie if he continues to pitch poorly.  And he can go to the pen and provide some innings there.

Harvey hasn’t been good for years...so, this isn’t exactly some snap judgment by people.

You are speaking in "ifs", but there are people who want to replace him now.  You are going to point to past track record and say he will trend down.  I pointed to advanced metrics that show he is likely to trend up.

The point of my post was that a three game sample is not the grounds to overreact.  Lets see what the next three games looks like and evaluate from there.  

The OP says who is next to go...its not Harvey.

[NCRaven]

I'm not sure that Sisco learning to hit AAA pitching again will help much either.  In the long run, it won't matter, but I just think (if it isn't already obvious) that Severino is not good and I still have some hope that Sisco would be an acceptable backup catcher.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Sisco had a 113 wRC+ last year and it was 97 the year before.  It’s just flat out wrong to say his offense hasn’t been good enough.  
 

He has 63 PA spread over 20 games this year.  Making judgements on his offense for that sample size is wrong.  
 

And his defense, at least his throwing, has improved.

Oh and btw, Severino isn’t good either and has no future.  At least it Sisco can hit like he has in the past and get on base, he has a chance to be something.

I don’t particularly like his chances but again, the team is terrible and you don’t have alternatives, so why not.  

I want to know why Sisco isn't getting more playing time. Does Elias not like Sisco and doesn't feel particularly attached to him because he didn't draft him? I've seen enough of Severino to know he isn't an everyday catcher. Sisco might respond better if he's playing 5 days a week. 

Ultimately AR is taking over being the plate, but Sisco's bat has more potential as an MLB hitter and might allow him to play 1B/DH as a role player.