Will we soon be better than the Nats?

[Frobby]

Locally, the Nats have been cleaning our clock in recent years.   To the extent fans have wanted to choose between them, the Nats have been the better franchise for quite a while.   Even in the window when the O’s were good, the Nats were as good or better.   So, we’ve been losing ground for a decade.   

But is the tide beginning to turn?   The Nats were 26-34 last year, 22-29 this year.    Not as bad as the Orioles, but not good.   They’ve got the 5th oldest set of hitters in the majors, and the oldest set of pitchers.   Their top pitcher, Max Scherzer, is 36 and will be a free agent at the end of the season. 

Perhaps more importantly, their farm system is barren.   Fangraphs has a system for putting a dollar value on prospects in the system.   The Orioles, at $230.5 mm, are in the top 10-11 in the league.  The Nats, at $75 mm, are dead last.    And look at their affiliates:

AAA Rochester 7-18

AA Harrisburg 7-17

A+ Wilmington 13-12

A Fredericksburg 5-20

So, when they fall, they could fall hard.    Meanwhile, three of the O’s farm teams have the best record in AA, High A and Low A.   Norfolk at 9-15 isn’t too hot, but still better than Rochester.

I’m thinking that when the O’s return to being a good team, with a lot of exciting young players, the Nats are going to be just starting a rebuild    It will be nice to have the shoe on the other foot.

 

 

[LTO's]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Locally, the Nats have been cleaning our clock in recent years.   To the extent fans have wanted to choose between them, the Nats have been the better franchise for quite a while.   Even in the window when the O’s were good, the Nats were as good or better.   So, we’ve been losing ground for a decade.   

But is the tide beginning to turn?   The Nats were 26-34 last year, 22-29 this year.    Not as bad as the Orioles, but not good.   They’ve got the 5th oldest set of hitters in the majors, and the oldest set of pitchers.   Their top pitcher, Max Scherzer, is 36 and will be a free agent at the end of the season. 

Perhaps more importantly, their farm system is barren.   Fangraphs has a system for putting a dollar value on prospects in the system.   The Orioles, at $230.5 mm, are in the top 10-11 in the league.  The Nats, at $75 mm, are dead last.    And look at their affiliates:

AAA Rochester 7-18

AA Harrisburg 7-17

A+ Wilmington 13-12

A Fredericksburg 5-20

So, when they fall, they could fall hard.    Meanwhile, three of the O’s farm teams have the best record in AA, High A and Low A.   Norfolk at 9-15 isn’t too hot, but still better than Rochester.

I’m thinking that when the O’s return to being a good team, with a lot of exciting young players, the Nats are going to be just starting a rebuild    It will be nice to have the shoe on the other foot.

 

 

All good points but you left out what may be one of the most damaging aspects of their current situation. They are going to be paying Stephen Strasburg 35 mil a year until 2027. I will be very intrigued to see what they do with Scherzer near the deadline. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Also, Delmarva absolutely kicked the crap out of Fredericksburg during their series, with I think a 119 run differential.

[spiritof66]

I sure have no idea, just an observation.

The Nats have a large advantage over the Orioles in that they play in a division where the teams' revenues are fairly well balanced (other than Miami's). It remains to be seen whether Steve Cohen, the Mets' multi-billionaire owner, will change that situation by spending, on payroll and otherwise, in a way that undoes the teams' rough equilibrium in resources. But even if that happens, competing for wins and division titles in the NL East is likely to remain a more attainable goal than competing in the AL East.

[George Zuverink]

Define “soon.” A fly’s lifetime soon? Geologic soon? CoC’s patience soon?

[eddie83]

10 minutes ago, LTO's said:

All good points but you left out what may be one of the most damaging aspects of their current situation. They are going to be paying Stephen Strasburg 35 mil a year until 2027. I will be very intrigued to see what they do with Scherzer near the deadline. 

I see Strasburg left his start early last night. 

I said about a year ago I thought the Nats reminded me a little of the 83 Orioles. They have some strong core players like Soto and Turner but are an aging team with a poor farm system. 
 

Their spending on the right guys like Scherzer and Corbin - at least for 2019- extended their window and got them over the top. I would sign up for an 8 year window and a WS ring all day long.  The 2019 team was very top heavy. Terrible bullpen but had 4 good starters, some elite. Their lineup got a big year out of Kendrick. Losing Rendon hurt. Robles may have already peaked. It will be a challenge for Rizzo to keep winning. Turner is a FA after 2022. They should be scoring more than 3.9 RPG but their rotation is no longer as dominant. 

[eddie83]

12 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I sure have no idea, just an observation.

The Nats have a large advantage over the Orioles in that they play in a division where the teams' revenues are fairly well balanced (other than Miami's). It remains to be seen whether Steve Cohen, the Mets' multi-billionaire owner, will change that situation by spending, on payroll and otherwise, in a way that undoes the teams' rough equilibrium in resources. But even if that happens, competing for wins and division titles in the NL East is likely to remain a more attainable goal than competing in the AL East.

All true but if you don’t have an influx of young talent time doesn’t stand still. Pitchers with Gausman being an example can peak later here and there. In general, position players production is dominated by youth. Can’t buy that. 

[Sports Guy]

Very possible...Just a matter how much ownership holds us back or not.  If the Nats make some trades that work out well for them and they immediately spend money and Soto is an MVP candidate, they could be back quickly.

 

[fansince1988]

13 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I sure have no idea, just an observation.

The Nats have a large advantage over the Orioles in that they play in a division where the teams' revenues are fairly well balanced (other than Miami's). It remains to be seen whether Steve Cohen, the Mets' multi-billionaire owner, will change that situation by spending, on payroll and otherwise, in a way that undoes the teams' rough equilibrium in resources. But even if that happens, competing for wins and division titles in the NL East is likely to remain a more attainable goal than competing in the AL East.

Agreed, I'd trade divisions with them if we could. The Nats are also willing to spend big money in the free agent market too, which makes in easier to compete. 

[eddie83]

Some people forget the Nats drafted high for a long time. How they got Zimmmerman (4) Strasburg (1), Harper (1) and Rendon (6). Obviously their team was more than just those players. Also drafted J Zimmerman. Soto and Robles were huge in 19 offsetting Harper leaving. 
 

Look at their drafts since about 2012. Giolito was dealt for Adam Eaton. Luzardo for Doolittle. The top 4 players in Franchise history outside of Max and eventually Soto were those high picks. Not a coincidence.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Some people forget the Nats drafted high for a long time. How they got Zimmmerman (4) Strasburg (1), Harper (1) and Rendon (6). Obviously their team was more than just those players. Also drafted J Zimmerman. Soto and Robles were huge in 19 offsetting Harper leaving. 
 

Look at their drafts since about 2012. Giolito was dealt for Adam Eaton. Luzardo for Doolittle. The top 4 players in Franchise history outside of Max and eventually Soto were those high picks. Not a coincidence.

You have to give them some credit on Zimmerman and Rendon.   Pretty sure every team would have chosen Strasburg and Harper.    But it’s nice when top picks more or less live up to expectations.  

[Redskins Rick]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Very possible...Just a matter how much ownership holds us back or not.  If the Nats make some trades that work out well for them and they immediately spend money and Soto is an MVP candidate, they could be back quickly.

 

They have also not spent money wisely, so money isnt always the best fix.

I dont see them coming back all that quickly, but we shall see.

[Moose Milligan]

IMO, hard to tell.  I'd give anything to be in their division.  That division is almost never as good as advertised.  The Mets, for all they did this offseason, continue to bumble along and the Phillies haven't been able to spend their way into contention, either.

I think it's very conceivable that we could potentially field a better team, pure talent wise in a few years but they finish higher strictly due to their division.  And I hate making excuses for the league/division a team plays in but it really can't be ignored here.

[Can_of_corn]

23 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Some people forget the Nats drafted high for a long time. How they got Zimmmerman (4) Strasburg (1), Harper (1) and Rendon (6). Obviously their team was more than just those players. Also drafted J Zimmerman. Soto and Robles were huge in 19 offsetting Harper leaving. 
 

Look at their drafts since about 2012. Giolito was dealt for Adam Eaton. Luzardo for Doolittle. The top 4 players in Franchise history outside of Max and eventually Soto were those high picks. Not a coincidence.

I don't think anyone forgets that.  It was a pretty big deal when they picked Strasburg and Harper in back to back drafts.

[eddie83]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think anyone forgets that.  It was a pretty big deal when they picked Strasburg and Harper in back to back drafts.

The media tends to ignore that once teams spend for awhile. The how it started part gets ignored.