When should the O’s call up Rutschman?

[Ruzious]

7 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

Can I just point out that Rutschman has caught all of 280 innings in the minors and is a career .258 hitter. Yes, he does walk a lot, and that's not a small thing, but he's yet to really put together any dominant hitting streaks. At 22, Mountcastle hit 35 doubles and 25 HR's at AAA. Let's see AR do something similar.

Rutschman is hitting better than Mountcastle did that year.  He has a .941 OPS vs Mountcastle's .871.  

[Gentile4]

12 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Rutschman is hitting better than Mountcastle did that year.  He has a .941 OPS vs Mountcastle's .871.  

That's true, but Mountcastle was 22 in AAA while AR is 23 in AA. Like I said, walks are not a small thing, especially for a team whose OBA is bad, but I'd like to see Adley really get into a groove hitting before we throw him to the wolves.

[Sports Guy]

33 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

Can I just point out that Rutschman has caught all of 280 innings in the minors and is a career .258 hitter. Yes, he does walk a lot, and that's not a small thing, but he's yet to really put together any dominant hitting streaks. At 22, Mountcastle hit 35 doubles and 25 HR's at AAA. Let's see AR do something similar.

You can point it out but it doesn’t really mean anything either.

[Gentile4]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You can point it out but it doesn’t really mean anything either.

Of course it does. It means he's caught the equivalent of 31 professional games and has yet to display the dominant hitting you'd like to see out of the overall #1 pick. 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

Of course it does. It means he's caught the equivalent of 31 professional games and has yet to display the dominant hitting you'd like to see out of the overall #1 pick. 

He’s hitting extremely well at the AA level now.  He was an advanced bat, one of the best college prospect seen in a decade.

He doesn’t need much time.  If he had a 750 OPS or something maybe you would have a point but he doesn’t.  
 

Andrew Vaughn was taken in the same draft, has less experience and is on the WS and has been since OD. He has a wRC+ of 103 and is on pace to be a 2-2.5 WAR player and that’s if he doesn’t continue to improve.  

[Moose Milligan]

4 hours ago, Gentile4 said:

Of course it does. It means he's caught the equivalent of 31 professional games and has yet to display the dominant hitting you'd like to see out of the overall #1 pick. 

His OPS is .923.  

What does someone need to OPS to be dominant?

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

So would you be OK with it if it was done to you, for the betterment of the company you work for?

I’m not losing a lot of sleep over it.   He’s got $8.8 mm in the bank.    He won’t go homeless.   

More to the point, it’s not totally clear to me that he’s ready for the major leagues or that sending him there is the best way to further his development.    I want him up this year if he’s ready and it’s the right thing for his development, not because I’m worried about him being exploited but because I think it would be best for the team.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not losing a lot of sleep over it.   He’s got $8.8 mm in the bank.    He won’t go homeless.   

More to the point, it’s not totally clear to me that he’s ready for the major leagues or that sending him there is the best way to further his development.    I want him up this year if he’s ready and it’s the right thing for his development, not because I’m worried about him being exploited but because I think it would be best for the team.   
 

You didn't answer.

Say Adley wasn't a bonus baby, would that make a difference?  Should it?  

I don't think he's rich so it's OK is a good stance.

[Ruzious]

6 hours ago, Gentile4 said:

That's true, but Mountcastle was 22 in AAA while AR is 23 in AA. Like I said, walks are not a small thing, especially for a team whose OBA is bad, but I'd like to see Adley really get into a groove hitting before we throw him to the wolves.

The bolded part is the problem.  He's arguably the top prospect in baseball, and he's 23 in AA.  

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, Gentile4 said:

Of course it does. It means he's caught the equivalent of 31 professional games and has yet to display the dominant hitting you'd like to see out of the overall #1 pick. 

What kind of dominant hitting do you expect out of the #1 overall pick?  Here's some examples of MLB performances:

Shawn Abner, .591 OPS (.740 AAA, .739 AA)
Dave Roberts .644 (.772 AAA)
Danny Goodwin, .674 (.918 AAA, .962 AA)
Tim Beckham, .714 (.688 AAA, .728 AA)
Jeff Burroughs, .795 (.893 AAA)
Rick Monday, .804 (.870 minors, .874 AA)
Phi Nevin, .814 (.759 AAA, .958 AA)
Ron Blomberg, .832 (.865 AAA, .875 AA)
Pat Burrell, .834 (.833 AAA, 1.049 AA)
Bob Horner, .839 (skipped minors)
Adrian Gonzalez, .843 (.832 AAA, .767 AA)
Tim Foli, .593 (.688 AAA, 5-for-20, .568 AA)
Shawon Dunston, .712 (.656 AAA, .777 AA)
BJ Surhoff .745 (.743 AAA, 3-for-12 in AA)

There are, of course, also 4-5 HOFers on the list, but also a number of others I didn't list who barely played or played poorly in the majors. Harold Baines had a .734 in AA and a .856 in AAA.  Joe Mauer .853 in AA, 29 AB in AAA. Some of the high school guys are harder to comp since they were in the minors when Rutschman was in college...  Josh Hamilton has a career minor league OPS of .819.

I've said this many times, but the #1 overall pick is expected to be a HOFer, but the median value of a #1 overall is about 15 WAR, or roughly the career of Matt Wieters or Ben McDonald.  You expect dominance, but usually get a good MLBer.  There have been many more #1s who gave their teams no value at all than there have been deserving HOFers.

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

His OPS is .923.  

What does someone need to OPS to be dominant?

The expectation for a #1 overall is about a 1.200 in 100 PAs in the minors then he's called up and has Chipper Jones' career.  The reality is usually Pat Burrell or Jeff King.  Or Shawn Abner or Steve Chilcott.

[DrungoHazewood]

It is true that Rutschman is old for a top prospect to be in AA.  But most top prospects didn't have a season where there were no minor league games.

[sevastras]

Rutschman is a better option right now than Severino, Wynns or Chance, however I would rather not start the service time right now.  I would like it if he continues like he currently is, AAA after the AS break and then called up next year after the time to gain an extra year of service.  I would call up Cumberland, trade Severino, move Rutschman to AAA and Maverick Handley to AA all on the same day by the trade deadline.  Handley is about as good as it gets defensively, gets on base at almost a .350 clip, steals bases, smart, and I am hoping at AA where he gets pitchers with more control that he will raise his average a bit.  

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, sevastras said:

Rutschman is a better option right now than Severino, Wynns or Chance, however I would rather not start the service time right now.  I would like it if he continues like he currently is, AAA after the AS break and then called up next year after the time to gain an extra year of service.  I would call up Cumberland, trade Severino, move Rutschman to AAA and Maverick Handley to AA all on the same day by the trade deadline.  Handley is about as good as it gets defensively, gets on base at almost a .350 clip, steals bases, smart, and I am hoping at AA where he gets pitchers with more control that he will raise his average a bit.  

Why Cumberland?

I can see bringing up a pure glove guy but I don't see the point in promoting Cumberland unless you are just hoping for lightning to strike.

[sevastras]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why Cumberland?

I can see bringing up a pure glove guy but I don't see the point in promoting Cumberland unless you are just hoping for lightning to strike.

I am not sure what you mean when you ask about hoping for lightning to strike.  He is almost 26, hits decent for a catcher while getting on base at around a .400 clip and doesnt hurt you defensively.  I think it is time to see what we have with him and give him MLB reps.  He is better behind the plate than Severino(not hard) and probably as good offensively as well.  Severino was always much younger in the minors, but never had the numbers Cumberland has had.  There has to be a point in which these guys get reps to see what the Os have.  If you dont give him reps now, he will never get regular playing time in Baltimore when Adley comes up. 

If you would like to expand on the lightning to strike comment, maybe I could expand on my thoughts more directly to answer unless I have it covered above.