O's future is based on pitching prospects

[Sports Guy]

12 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, but we're not about to spend on FA pitchers, at least not with this ownership group.   

Maybe we can trade for some.  I dunno, I understand the sentiment in the OP, I also understand why you don't agree with it.  But, IMO, I think G-Rod and Hall have to produce if we want to get anywhere.  

The Astros won the WS in 2017.

The had 5 starters start 22 or more games and Collin McHugh started 12 games.

Of those 6 guys, only Keuchel and McCullers started with the Astros organization.  McCullers was a comp pick and Keuchel was a 7th rounder.  Neither player was obtained because of rebuilding.  In other words, you could have had those players whether you won 50 or 100 games.

The other 4 players were Mike Fiers, Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and the aforementioned McHugh.

Fiers, who had an ERA over 5 in 28 starts, was acquired in the Carlos Gomez trade.(Houston trades Hader in this deal as well)

Morton signed a 2/14 deal in the offseason Prior to their WS title.

Brad Peacock was acquired for Jed Lowrie.

McHugh was a waiver claim. 
 

Other starters they have acquired since 2017:

G Cole: Trade

Verlander: Trade

Miley: Cheap 1 year deal

Greinke: Trade

None of the players traded in these deals have amounted to anything as of yet and all of them could have been had whether you were a rebuilding team or not.

So, while guys like Greinke and Verlander carry a big salary, the Astros got them later on in their contracts, so they didn’t pay out a lot. The team that won the WS had no big dollar FA pitchers.  

They currently have a rotation of a lot of home grown kids that were Intl signings, again that has nothing to do with rebuilding.

The Astros, over the last several years, have acquired pitching in a lot of ways.  Intl signings, trades, small FA signings and through the draft.  In other words, they didn’t rely on just their system to produce talent and, in fact, most of the guys who have excelled for them came from elsewhere.  They didn’t just go down a list of prospects and say, hey we can just promote these guys and win.  We need to do it in all ways because there isn’t just one way to build a team.  You build a team through every avenue available.

Going back to my original comment about the point of this thread…the future of this team is not based on pitching prospects.  The future of this team is based on the organizations  ability to build a good team using every resource they have at their disposal.  That is trades, Intl signings, development, money, etc…if we are going to pin the future hopes on what we have right now, I can tell you it will fail.  While it’s true that we will contend only if what we have now develops, we need more than what we have to put us over the top.  We need to get other players in here.  We need what we have now to form the foundation for the future but we need other bricks to finish the house.

[sportsfan8703]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

We are growing the bats..likely will have to buy the arms, like Houston essentially did.

Not a bad way to go imo.  Developing hitting is easier.

I think is where we are at. Then use the bars as trade currency for pitching. Plus, a lot of these “prospects” in the MLB, and in AAA, project as back end SP or relievers. 
 

You can’t get too down on the group too, when they were projected to struggle according to years of scouting reports saying #4-#5 or relief type. 

[Moose Milligan]

59 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Astros won the WS in 2017.

The had 5 starters start 22 or more games and Collin McHugh started 12 games.

Of those 6 guys, only Keuchel and McCullers started with the Astros organization.  McCullers was a comp pick and Keuchel was a 7th rounder.  Neither player was obtained because of rebuilding.  In other words, you could have had those players whether you won 50 or 100 games.

The only 4 players were Mike Fiers, Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and the aforementioned McHugh.

Fiers, who had an ERA over 5 in 28 starts, was acquired in the Carlos Gomez trade.(Houston trades Hader in this deal as well)

Morton signed a 2/14 deal in the offseason Prior to their WS title.

Brad Peacock was acquired for Jed Lowrie.

McHugh was a waiver claim. 
 

Other starters they have acquired since 2017:

G Cole: Trade

Verlander: Trade

Miley: Cheap 1 year deal

Greinke: Trade

None of the players traded in these deals have amounted to anything as of yet and all of them could have been had whether you were a rebuilding team or not.

So, while guys like Greinke and Verlander carry a big salary, the Astros got them later on in their contracts, so they didn’t pay out a lot. The team that won the WS had no big dollar FA pitchers.  

They currently have a rotation of a lot of home grown kids that were Intl signings, again that has nothing to do with rebuilding.

The Astros, over the last several years, have acquired pitching in a lot of ways.  Intl signings, trades, small FA signings and through the draft.  In other words, they didn’t rely on just their system to produce talent and, in fact, most of the guys who have excelled for them came from elsewhere.  They didn’t just go down a list of prospects and say, hey we can just promote these guys and win.  We need to do it in all ways because there isn’t just one way to build a team.  You build a team through every avenue available.

Going back to my original comment about the point of this thread…the future of this team is not based on pitching prospects.  The future of this team is based on the organizations  ability to build a good team using every resource they have at their disposal.  That is trades, Intl signings, development, money, etc…if we are going to pin the future hopes on what we have right now, I can tell you it will fail.  While it’s true that we will contend only if what we have now develops, we need more than what we have to put us over the top.  We need to get other players in here.  We need what we have now to form the foundation for the future but we need other bricks to finish the house.

Yeah, but the 2019 Nationals won with Scherzer who was a 7/210 million signing (and he's probably been worth it).

2018, Red Sox WS champs,  Sale signed 5/145 extension.  Yes, he was initially acquired by a trade.  But the Orioles won't spend to sign or extend a pitcher like that.  I can see them trading for a guy for a stretch drive but not to pay out over multiple seasons and not to extend.

Your argument is that the Astros have acquired pitching in a lot of different ways, and I don't disagree with that.  My argument is that the Orioles won't pony up to spend for a guy like Scherzer, Sale, Grienke, Verlander, etc, no matter how acquired.  Not until a new ownership comes in, at least.  

You are correct, you build a team through every avenue available, the Astros did a masterful job of it.  But I think the notion here is that these guys we have in the system (G-Rod, Hall, others) need to produce for us to be successful is borne out of the idea that the Orioles won't pay for top flight pitching, no matter the avenue acquired.  I think a lot of people understand that subconsciously,  thus the idea that we need these guys to work out in order for us to contend.  

Understanding that, I can't really disagree with why people think that way.  You're right, if we're going to pin future hopes on what we have right now, we will fail.  I just don't think the ownership will do what it takes to land us a significant, expensive pitcher like the one's discussed here no matter what the avenue is.  I don't ever see us trading for a Cole, Verlander, Greinke, etc.  

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, but the 2019 Nationals won with Scherzer who was a 7/210 million signing (and he's probably been worth it).

2018, Red Sox WS champs,  Sale signed 5/145 extension.  Yes, he was initially acquired by a trade.  But the Orioles won't spend to sign or extend a pitcher like that.  I can see them trading for a guy for a stretch drive but not to pay out over multiple seasons and not to extend.

Your argument is that the Astros have acquired pitching in a lot of different ways, and I don't disagree with that.  My argument is that the Orioles won't pony up to spend for a guy like Scherzer, Sale, Grienke, Verlander, etc, no matter how acquired.  Not until a new ownership comes in, at least.  

You are correct, you build a team through every avenue available, the Astros did a masterful job of it.  But I think the notion here is that these guys we have in the system (G-Rod, Hall, others) need to produce for us to be successful is borne out of the idea that the Orioles won't pay for top flight pitching, no matter the avenue acquired.  I think a lot of people understand that subconsciously,  thus the idea that we need these guys to work out in order for us to contend.  

Understanding that, I can't really disagree with why people think that way.  You're right, if we're going to pin future hopes on what we have right now, we will fail.  I just don't think the ownership will do what it takes to land us a significant, expensive pitcher like the one's discussed here no matter what the avenue is.  I don't ever see us trading for a Cole, Verlander, Greinke, etc.  

Well, few things here:

1) I tend to agree they won’t be signing pitchers to a 5+ year deal for 30+M a year and I’m glad for that.  I think that’s smart.

2). The Astros won their title with guys who weren’t high priced.  You don’t have to have high priced guys.  Just look at the 2014 Os as another example.

3) I’m not sure if the Os would trade for a higher priced pitcher on a shorter commitment.  I tend to think they would once they are winning.  I think it’s something you can do before winning but I don’t think they will do that but once they are winning and have more fans in the stands and more revenue coming In?  I can’t see them doing it then.

 

The Astros have only had one season with a higher payroll than the 2017 Os and that is this year (probably would have been last year too).  The Orioles payroll in 2016 and 2018 is every bit to the level the Astros have been at and higher than the year the Astros won the WS, when their payroll at the end of the year was 134M (was 124M on OD)

So it’s not like the Astros have been out there spending crazy money and they are now spending more because their younger top talent is further along in arb seasons.  

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The Astros won the WS in 2017.

The had 5 starters start 22 or more games and Collin McHugh started 12 games.

Of those 6 guys, only Keuchel and McCullers started with the Astros organization.  McCullers was a comp pick and Keuchel was a 7th rounder.  Neither player was obtained because of rebuilding.  In other words, you could have had those players whether you won 50 or 100 games.

The other 4 players were Mike Fiers, Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and the aforementioned McHugh.

Fiers, who had an ERA over 5 in 28 starts, was acquired in the Carlos Gomez trade.(Houston trades Hader in this deal as well)

Morton signed a 2/14 deal in the offseason Prior to their WS title.

Brad Peacock was acquired for Jed Lowrie.

McHugh was a waiver claim. 
 

Other starters they have acquired since 2017:

G Cole: Trade

Verlander: Trade

Miley: Cheap 1 year deal

Greinke: Trade

None of the players traded in these deals have amounted to anything as of yet and all of them could have been had whether you were a rebuilding team or not.

So, while guys like Greinke and Verlander carry a big salary, the Astros got them later on in their contracts, so they didn’t pay out a lot. The team that won the WS had no big dollar FA pitchers.  

They currently have a rotation of a lot of home grown kids that were Intl signings, again that has nothing to do with rebuilding.

The Astros, over the last several years, have acquired pitching in a lot of ways.  Intl signings, trades, small FA signings and through the draft.  In other words, they didn’t rely on just their system to produce talent and, in fact, most of the guys who have excelled for them came from elsewhere.  They didn’t just go down a list of prospects and say, hey we can just promote these guys and win.  We need to do it in all ways because there isn’t just one way to build a team.  You build a team through every avenue available.

Going back to my original comment about the point of this thread…the future of this team is not based on pitching prospects.  The future of this team is based on the organizations  ability to build a good team using every resource they have at their disposal.  That is trades, Intl signings, development, money, etc…if we are going to pin the future hopes on what we have right now, I can tell you it will fail.  While it’s true that we will contend only if what we have now develops, we need more than what we have to put us over the top.  We need to get other players in here.  We need what we have now to form the foundation for the future but we need other bricks to finish the house.

Excellent thoughtful post with facts and stats to back up your opinion. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, but the 2019 Nationals won with Scherzer who was a 7/210 million signing (and he's probably been worth it).

2018, Red Sox WS champs,  Sale signed 5/145 extension.  Yes, he was initially acquired by a trade.  But the Orioles won't spend to sign or extend a pitcher like that.  I can see them trading for a guy for a stretch drive but not to pay out over multiple seasons and not to extend.

Your argument is that the Astros have acquired pitching in a lot of different ways, and I don't disagree with that.  My argument is that the Orioles won't pony up to spend for a guy like Scherzer, Sale, Grienke, Verlander, etc, no matter how acquired.  Not until a new ownership comes in, at least.  

You are correct, you build a team through every avenue available, the Astros did a masterful job of it.  But I think the notion here is that these guys we have in the system (G-Rod, Hall, others) need to produce for us to be successful is borne out of the idea that the Orioles won't pay for top flight pitching, no matter the avenue acquired.  I think a lot of people understand that subconsciously,  thus the idea that we need these guys to work out in order for us to contend.  

Understanding that, I can't really disagree with why people think that way.  You're right, if we're going to pin future hopes on what we have right now, we will fail.  I just don't think the ownership will do what it takes to land us a significant, expensive pitcher like the one's discussed here no matter what the avenue is.  I don't ever see us trading for a Cole, Verlander, Greinke, etc.  

It will certainly be a lot easier to rebuild if the Orioles top prospects actually do well, particularly Rodriguez and Hall because this team needs impact starting pitching badly. I can see you point that the team under current ownership will probably never pony up for a big free agent or trade for a big contract pitcher since they've been reluctant to do so before, but we don't know yet whether they will be willing if Elias presents ownership with a solid core.

Lets's say it's 2023 and Rutschman as at catcher, Mountcastle at 1B, Henderson is at 3B, Westburg is at SS, Mullins in CF, who ever they draft this year is ready (assuming they go for a college guy), Rodriguez and Hall are part of the rotation and all they really need is one more ace pitcher? Maybe they will spend to get that guy, particularly if it's at the end of a long big deal that may only have 2-3 years left?

 

[Philip]

16 hours ago, Explosivo said:

I highly recommend the podcast On the Verge. They cover the potential prospects better than any beat writer paid to cover the Orioles that I can find. I trust their analysis more as well. They have a great deep dive of our top 30 and fringe top 30 prospects as the DSL and GCL are starting up.

I have found that I dislike podcasts unless they are extremely professional, and rarely even then. There’s too much miscellaneous yakking and too little focus on the topic. 
When someone has to write the thoughts tend to be much more focused and miscellaneous blather is minimized.

I’d love to read their stuff, but I don’t especially want to listen to it.

Edited June 23, 2021 by Philip

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

I have found that I dislike podcasts unless they are extremely professional, and rarely even then. There’s too much miscellaneous yakking and too little focus on the topic. 
When someone has to write the thoughts tend to be much more focused and miscellaneous blather is minimized.

I’d love to read their stuff, but I don’t perfectly want to listen to it.

They are good guys over there.  I know/have met Bob.  The other 2 work hard on stuff.  I haven’t listened to it since they first started and when they first started, there were some issues here and there.  Obviously it’s not backed by any real money, so the production value is only so high but overall, it’s good info and they are all passionate about things, which is always necessary.

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

It will certainly be a lot easier to rebuild if the Orioles top prospects actually do well, particularly Rodriguez and Hall because this team needs impact starting pitching badly. I can see you point that the team under current ownership will probably never pony up for a big free agent or trade for a big contract pitcher since they've been reluctant to do so before, but we don't know yet whether they will be willing if Elias presents ownership with a solid core.

Lets's say it's 2023 and Rutschman as at catcher, Mountcastle at 1B, Henderson is at 3B, Westburg is at SS, Mullins in CF, who ever they draft this year is ready (assuming they go for a college guy), Rodriguez and Hall are part of the rotation and all they really need is one more ace pitcher? Maybe they will spend to get that guy, particularly if it's at the end of a long big deal that may only have 2-3 years left?

 

I hope they step up and deliver on a FA/trade when they're winning games and competing.  IIRC, but even at the deadline deals in the mid 2010s, it didn't seem like they ever landed a real difference maker.  That said, there wasn't much in the farm system to deal.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I hope they step up and deliver on a FA/trade when they're winning games and competing.  IIRC, but even at the deadline deals in the mid 2010s, it didn't seem like they ever landed a real difference maker.  That said, there wasn't much in the farm system to deal.

Miller was a difference maker

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Miller was a difference maker

True, he was.  But I was really talking about SPs, as I assumed you were since that was the original part of our discussion.  And I think you and I would both agree that SPs was what was missing from those teams.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

True, he was.  But I was really talking about SPs, as I assumed you were since that was the original part of our discussion.  And I think you and I would both agree that SPs was what was missing from those teams.

I mean I guess..the 2014 team was fine.  Could they have used an ace?  Sure.  Was it necessary?  I don’t think so.

Having elite starters don’t guarantee you anything in the playoffs.  Give me good starters and an elite pen instead.

 

[SteveA]

21 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No it’s not.  
 

How many pitching prospects propelled the Astros to a WS win?

45 of the Astros 73 starts this year have been made by guys who were international signings while Elias was there (Urquiddy, Garcia, Valdez, Javier).  

An additional 11 starts were made by Lance McCullers, who was drafted when Elias was there.

One game was started by Tyler Ivey, who was drafted when Elias was there.

To acquire Zach Greinke in 2019, the Astros traded Seth Beers (drafted while Elias was there), JB Bukauskus (drafted while Elias was there), Corbin Martin (drafted while Elias was there), and Josh Rojas (drafted while Elias was there).   Greinke has started 16 games.

So 65 of the 73 Astros starts this year were made by guys who were acquired and developed by the team when Elias was there, or who was acquired in trade with assets who were acquired and devloped by the team when Elias was there.

They have only "bought" 8 starts so far this year -- Jake Odorizzi, who they signed as a free agent in March.

And they are in first place, with the best record in the American League and second best in baseball.

So yeah, they did do a lot of "buying the arms" to get their first WS team.   But now they have the second best record in baseball with a pitching staff that is a product of their system.   And yes, that includes Greinke.   If you trade two guys you drafted in the first round and one you drafted in the 2nd to get a guy -- he is essentially the fruits of your drafting.

I'd say that bodes well for us, but we will; have to wait a few years until our international signees start turning into Javier/Urquiddy/Valdez/Garcia, since we were late to that game.

[Orioles0615]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think is where we are at. Then use the bars as trade currency for pitching. Plus, a lot of these “prospects” in the MLB, and in AAA, project as back end SP or relievers. 
 

You can’t get too down on the group too, when they were projected to struggle according to years of scouting reports saying #4-#5 or relief type. 

Yea its worrying to me that they seem like they are putting all of their eggs in the Hall/Rodriguez. If anyone gets seriously hurt its another year to two years added on to the "rebuild". Even the Hall injury now, I feel like it added another 6 months onto his debut timeline, even though its not serious yet. 

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean I guess..the 2014 team was fine.  Could they have used an ace?  Sure.  Was it necessary?  I don’t think so.

Having elite starters don’t guarantee you anything in the playoffs.  Give me good starters and an elite pen instead.

 

The 2014 O’s beat the Tigers who had Verlander, Scherzer and Price.