Connolly: Trade Deadline thoughts

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m still waiting for the “abundantly clear” posts that you aren’t using the rankings as an authority here.

I'm still waiting for you to understand what 100% authority means.

I guess we are at in impasse. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm still waiting for you to understand what 100% authority means.

I guess we are at in impasse. 

I know what it means…and I feel that’s what you are doing.  Show me posts that tell me that’s not true.  I looked and don’t see them.

All I see is you justifying your position using rankings.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I know what it means…and I feel that’s what you are doing.  Show me posts that tell me that’s not true.  I looked and don’t see them.

All I see is you justifying your position using rankings.  

I guess I was right when I suggested you couldn't read.

Quote

I'm not saying the #30 guy can't end up being the better player

Yes I know scouting and grading these kids is pretty close to impossible

Both guys were ranked from 30-40 (for whatever that is worth).

 

Now if you want, I can try and come up with synonyms for any of the harder words.

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not really.  You aren't going to see a situation in which the #5 guy isn't considered a significantly more valuable prospect than the #30 guy.  You might have a class in which #5 and others are a better deal than #1 but the O's aren't in either situation right now.

Most of the top players were already committed this year. We got Hernandez and Basallo since they got squeezed out by their previously committed organizations. We were fortunate to get those players with Kobe’s knowledge and relationships down there. This year should be better. I think the next year should be the one we have bigger expectations. The new facility might be ready by then. The name of the organization will have some traction and some of the players being recruited will have a track record to look at. 

Now that there is depth, I would expect them to spend their money on more talented and expensive guys as they become available. 

Faulting the organization for spending is a narrow argument without mentioning the massive amounts of capital spent on facilities and infrastructure. What problem is actually solved by spending recklessly? If you can accomplish what you are able and do so while spending a small amount less than others, is that not smart management? 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Most of the top players were already committed this year. We got Hernandez and Basallo since they got squeezed out by their previously committed organizations. We were fortunate to get those players with Kobe’s knowledge and relationships down there. This year should be better. I think the next year should be the one we have bigger expectations. The new facility might be ready by then. The name of the organization will have some traction and some of the players being recruited will have a track record to look at. 

Now that there is depth, I would expect them to spend their money on more talented and expensive guys as they become available. 

Faulting the organization for spending is a narrow argument without mentioning the massive amounts of capital spent on facilities and infrastructure. What problem is actually solved by spending recklessly? If you can accomplish what you are able and do so while spending a small amount less than others, is that not smart management? 

The new facility is supposed to be ready.

Nothing you say changes what I said.  That while progress was made the O's were still toward the back of the pack. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I guess I was right when I suggested you couldn't read.

Now if you want, I can try and come up with synonyms for any of the harder words.

Lol

First of all, one of those comments was made before I got involved and considering you mentioned that you exerted conditions because you figured I would mention the rankings being bs, I didn’t take that comment into consideration (nor did I really even read it because it wasn’t in the exchange between you and me)

Secondly, saying the #30 guy could be better doesn’t mean you aren’t arguing from a point that the rankings mean a lot.  They really don’t have anything to do with each other.  
 

And great, you mentioned that scouting and grading them can be tough…and yet you are using the rankings anyway. So, who cares that you state that?

Im going back to what I said,  there are a lot of variables to take into account when discussing any one class and there are definitely classes where I would want to blow my wad on a few guys and other classes where I would happily spend on a lot of guys.  The rankings don’t matter.  

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Faulting the organization for spending is a narrow argument without mentioning the massive amounts of capital spent on facilities and infrastructure. What problem is actually solved by spending recklessly? If you can accomplish what you are able and do so while spending a small amount less than others, is that not smart management? 

A few years ago CoC continually argued that the O's should give the Mesa brothers 6 million. Older brother has a sub .400 OPS in AA and is now considered a non prospect. Little brother surpassed him as a prospect coming into the year but has been terrible in low A with a sub .300 OBP and sub .600 OPS. 

[Jammer7]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The new facility is supposed to be ready.

Nothing you say changes what I said.  That while progress was made the O's were still toward the back of the pack. 

Not looking to change what you said. It is just a very narrow argument. Of course I have no delusions that I will ever change what you believe. It has been the same tune for a year now, despite whatever counter points we provide. I’m not here to argue with you. That would be a waste of time. I am simply providing some breadth for the rest of us. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, LTO's said:

A few years ago CoC continually argued that the O's should give the Mesa brothers 6 million. Older brother has a sub .400 OPS in AA and is now considered a non prospect. Little brother surpassed him as a prospect coming into the year but has been terrible in low A with a sub .300 OBP and sub .600 OPS. 

Not really.

I think what I argued was that the O's would be better off spending that allotment on what prospects were left on the market than leaving it unspent.   Sandy Gaston was also in play at the time.

I still think I would rather the O's throw the money at a kid that ends up busting than have ownership pocket it.

[Jammer7]

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

A few years ago CoC continually argued that the O's should give the Mesa brothers 6 million. Older brother has a sub .400 OPS in AA and is now considered a non prospect. Little brother surpassed him as a prospect coming into the year but has been terrible in low A with a sub .300 OBP and sub .600 OPS. 

In fairness, I think we all just wanted to see a commitment to acquiring good International Talent. Turns out, not investing in those guys was a good move, though we’ll never know what they could have been in our system. I think most fans who understand the situation believe that Elias and Kobe are doing a great job thus far. Of course, if you agree with that, then that may be too much credit to give ownership for some. Rolls  

[Jammer7]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not really.

I think what I argued was that the O's would be better off spending that allotment on what prospects were left on the market than leaving it unspent.   Sandy Gaston was also in play at the time.

I still think I would rather the O's throw the money at a kid that ends up busting than have ownership pocket it.

Money is money, my friend. And Kobe was not hired yet. They knew the task the had at hand. And they spent a lot of money upgrading everything from the ground up to support a successful transition. Technology and improvements to facilities, along with added coaches at each level and more physical trainers and other support roles, they have made a miraculous improvement. One that is sustainable and will support the generations to come. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Money is money, my friend. And Kobe was not hired yet. They knew the task the had at hand. And they spent a lot of money upgrading everything from the ground up to support a successful transition. Technology and improvements to facilities, along with added coaches at each level and more physical trainers and other support roles, they have made a miraculous improvement. One that is sustainable and will support the generations to come. 

I'm not at all sold it is "miraculous". 

To me the tough part was getting ownership to sign on. 

Maybe I just don't know enough but I'm not sure that other folks couldn't be as good a job as the O's are. 

Once again I agree progress has been made.  No one could argue that point.

But miraculous?  I guess I'm a tough grader.

[Jammer7]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not at all sold it is "miraculous". 

To me the tough part was getting ownership to sign on. 

Maybe I just don't know enough but I'm not sure that other folks couldn't be as good a job as the O's are. 

Once again I agree progress has been made.  No one could argue that point.

But miraculous?  I guess I'm a tough grader.

Fair enough. Ownership has certainly earned our distrust. 100% on board with you there. But within the time that Mike Elias has been here, and keeping in mind the small market and COVID, I think he has done an excellent job in every facet. I think he is also about as genuine a guy as there is in the industry. He is human, and he’ll make mistakes, sure. Candid when he can be, but cautious when he should be. I am not sure I could have asked for a better situation that was within any reasonable expectation for any Orioles fan.

The people he has hired continue to impress me. Holding on to Brad Ciolek was a great move. Mike Snyder is doing a great job as well. Makes me wonder if we’ll be able to hold onto them for long. Kobe, Matt Blood, Eve Rosenbaum, the list goes on and on. 

Changing the direction of the steam rolling ball of crap he inherited was never going to be an easy job. But I think they have done a “miraculous” job because I wanted this to happen…I just did not expect that it actually would. We have been screaming for a GM like this since Pat Gillick left. We got exactly what we wanted. 

Remember the good ole days of Syd Thrift and the “Wonderlic tests?” Miraculous…

[spiritof66]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Most of the top players were already committed this year. We got Hernandez and Basallo since they got squeezed out by their previously committed organizations. We were fortunate to get those players with Kobe’s knowledge and relationships down there. This year should be better. I think the next year should be the one we have bigger expectations. The new facility might be ready by then. The name of the organization will have some traction and some of the players being recruited will have a track record to look at. 

Now that there is depth, I would expect them to spend their money on more talented and expensive guys as they become available. 

Faulting the organization for spending is a narrow argument without mentioning the massive amounts of capital spent on facilities and infrastructure. What problem is actually solved by spending recklessly? If you can accomplish what you are able and do so while spending a small amount less than others, is that not smart management? 

Two thoughts.

You say that next year "the name of the organization will have some traction" and the Orioles will have a bit of a track record." Maybe so. Those 16-year-old signees, if they succeed, would likely be four to six years away from MLB -- so they might help the Orioles as soon as 2026-28. Maybe one or two would be older and arrive sooner. And I question whether things will change much in a year. I assume, without knowing, two facts: (a) the teenaged superstars who are the highest ranked and paid international guys think their talent will get them to the major leagues regardless of the team they sign with, and (b) these guys and their advisors read the MLB standings. Notwithstanding improved traction or name recognition, I think the Orioles will be near the bottom of most of these guys' wish lists. Again assuming, I would expect the question for them, aside from the dollars, is not the players' and advisors' familiarity with the Orioles, but how a future with the persistently cellar-dwelling Orioles looks compared with other opportunities.

You say the Orioles have spent "massive amounts of capital . . . on facilities and infrastructure." Really? About how much have they spent? I don't doubt that it's a massive amount compared to what I have in the bank or to how much the team is willing to pay a shortstop. But the question is how what the Orioles are spending compares with other teams, and I don't know either. You seem to concede that the Orioles spend "a small amount less than others," but say that's OK because they are, or might be, spending their dollars more efficiently. Where does that come from? Why do you think the Orioles' current or planned international spending is "a small amount" less than what the Dodgers or NYYs or Red Sox or Cardinals or Angels or Mets, or anyone else, is spending? And why do you think that the Orioles are spending smarter than any other team, let alone most or all of them? Which ones do you think are spending recklessly?

When the Orioles hired Elias, I had some hope that he would be a creative, innovative leader whose moves would enable the Orioles to compete better with higher-revenue teams. He may be that, and may be doing great things that aren't visible, at least not to me. But more and more I worry that his plan is simply to replicate what the Astros did. I can only hope that he's better than that.

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Fair enough. Ownership has certainly earned our distrust. 100% on board with you there. But within the time that Mike Elias has been here, and keeping in mind the small market and COVID, I think he has done an excellent job in every facet. I think he is also about as genuine a guy as there is in the industry. He is human, and he’ll make mistakes, sure. Candid when he can be, but cautious when he should be. I am not sure I could have asked for a better situation that was within any reasonable expectation for any Orioles fan.

The people he has hired continue to impress me. Holding on to Brad Ciolek was a great move. Mike Snyder is doing a great job as well. Makes me wonder if we’ll be able to hold onto them for long. Kobe, Matt Blood, Eve Rosenbaum, the list goes on and on. 

Changing the direction of the steam rolling ball of crap he inherited was never going to be an easy job. But I think they have done a “miraculous” job because I wanted this to happen…I just did not expect that it actually would. We have been screaming for a GM like this since Pat Gillick left. We got exactly what we wanted. 

Remember the good ole days of Syd Thrift and the “Wonderlic tests?” Miraculous…

I think Dan would have been closer to this if ownership had allowed it.

As for Syd?  That was 20 years ago.  Every team is going to have miraculous improvement over what they were doing 20 years ago.