Ask me about a prospect. (Early July)

[HowAboutThat]

10 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

I'm gonna take a stab in the dark and say Tony doesn't feel a need to hear from other posters on this board about minor leaguers in this system.

I wasn’t being disrespectful, and I’m sure you are not inferring that I was, I was just thinking about how Luke used to work with Tony on this subject, and now that Luke is gone, Someone else who is informed might be worthwhile assistant, that’s all I was suggesting, because it’s a whole Lotta work to answer all these questions.

 

[Tony-OH]

22 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

What's your take on Jahmai Jones? Any issues with his play that might be keeping him in the minors?

Also would love to hear about Cameron Bishop and what you think his likely role is at the ML level

Jones issue is all about where you play him. He doesn't have the power of a typical corner outfielder so you really want him to play second base, but he just looks stiff over there and though he seems to have the aptitude to work on things and get better, you never really get a feel that he'll be able to play the position effectively consistently. Saying that, if I'm the Orioles, I'm playing him everyday at 2B in hopes he gets better because he's not chasing Mullins out of CF.

Bishop has four pitches and he's improved his command a lot. He's getting a lot of swing and miss in AA, but I'd like to see how his stuff plays with the major league ball in AAA before getting too high on him. He's a Zimmermann type guy for me right now but let's see how it plays.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

21 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Thoughts on Ofelky Peralta.

Saw that you downgraded Johnny Rizer but I've been hopeful about him.

Zach Watson had a very productive college career but hasn't hit in 2 years. Thoughts?

I think Peralta has a chance as a reliever although he's improved his secondaries, particularly his change. I could see him as a two inning guy coming in and throwing smoke out of the pen, but don't have an issue with continuing to stretch him out. He'll need to be protected on the 40-man next year no doubt. 

I'm still trying to get a feel for Watson. He really doesn't do anything great or anything terrible. He just kind of looks like a decent little player with a low ceiling. He has shown a little pop this year and can barrel a ball on occasion, but it still comes with a lot of miss at a level where you'd want him to do a little better out at his age. He's in the 4th outfielder range for me, but he's still interesting to watch.

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, connja said:

Was wondering how long Diaz stays highly rated...not only doesn't stay healthy, he's never really been all that productive with us when he is healthy.

Diaz will drop a bunch this year if he doesn't start producing in AAA. His prospect clock is ticking hard.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

Your thoughts on Darrell Hernaiz?   He’s still a month shy of his 20th birthday.   I’d read he had gotten stronger, but so far he’s mostly hitting singles.  

I keep reminding myself that Hernaiz is the youngest Shorebird and one of the younger players in the league. Defensively I like him and although his arm looks about average at SS, he looks like he has good instincts out there and good internal clock on his throws. Offensively, he's still battling right now and I haven't seen a ton of hard contact from him. He has struck a few that were caught on the warning track that might've gone out once he's a little stronger, but I still like the overall package. 

He seems to have good baseball IQ on top of things, and I would not be surprised to see him have a good second half. 

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Are you hearing anything about Erison Placencia? 

No, haven't heard much about the Complex League and with Sarasota getting record rainfall, most of their games have been wiped out. He's a guy I'm keeping my eye on though through the boxscores.

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

Tony, What are you hearing about Mike Baumann's health?  Is he headed for TJ surgery?

What pitches does Dustin Knight throw? What's his velocity?  Does he have a chance to be a closer in the majors?

I just saw Baumann pitch on July 2nd and he was sitting 93-96 so he looks pretty healthy to me. His problem has been command this is year and I'm not sure why it has taken him so long to find it. Even in his last outing he was pretty good overall, but did have some issues with his secondaries a bit. 

Knight is a 30-year career minor leaguer who was pitching for the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs in 2019 but when you watch him, you have to wonder what he's been eating? 

Knight is interesting for a few reasons, one of which is the fact he does a complete back flip after he gets a save. Yes, I'm not joking, a complete back flip. He pitches mostly backwards off his 78-80 MPH curveball that gets a lot of swing and miss and he's able to get ahead by throwing it for strikes. It rolls a bit too often though AAA hitters tend to miss his hangers. He also has a decent change for lefties that fades and dives away around 80 MPH. Surprisingly, he seems to stay away from his fastball, even though the games I've seen him he's sat 93-95. 

Is he a closer at the major league level? Well, right now, the Orioles don't have one so who's to say he couldn't? I will say this, if Travis Lakins can pitch in the big league with the Orioles, so can Knight. He's certainly better than Valdez and he's a nice little story.

I'm not sure that curveball plays as well at the major league level but he's certainly fooling AAA guys with it. His command can be spotty and the fastball doesn't look like it's got a ton of movement, but the Orioles could do worse than giving him a look in the pen this year if/when the need arises.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

 I’d like to ask about Watkins? It’s possible this is already been covered, but, I’d like to know whether he was in the top 30, and whether he is just a warm body here for a game or two, or has genuine potential?

Watkins is a 28-year old career minor leaguer so no, he was not on the prospect list. From what I saw in his first start, I'm not sure it's going to work too often without pinpoint command. He was mostly a fastball (90 MPH avg), cutter (85 avg) with a below average 12-6 curveball (78 MPH). His cutter was his best pitch in first outing with almost slider like movement. He didn't miss a ton of bats but he also didn't give up a on of hard contact, especially off the cutter.

He certainly earned another start but no, I do not think he's part of the future but rather a guy who can hopefully eat some innings this year. He's certainly a nice little story after almost quitting last year only to find himself in the big leagues. I'm rotting for him and maybe, just maybe that cutter can carry him for awhile.

[MurphDogg]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I just saw Baumann pitch on July 2nd and he was sitting 93-96 so he looks pretty healthy to me. His problem has been command this is year and I'm not sure why it has taken him so long to find it. Even in his last outing he was pretty good overall, but did have some issues with his secondaries a bit.

Baumann was still working his way back when I saw him on May 30th and in that start and the 5 starts since he walked at least a batter an inning in every start but one. Hopefully his July 2nd start will be the start of his turnaround as he only walked one and struck out a season high 6 in a season high 5 innings.

[interloper]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Watkins is a 28-year old career minor leaguer so no, he was not on the prospect list. From what I saw in his first start, I'm not sure it's going to work too often without pinpoint command. He was mostly a fastball (90 MPH avg), cutter (85 avg) with a below average 12-6 curveball (78 MPH). His cutter was his best pitch in first outing with almost slider like movement. He didn't miss a ton of bats but he also didn't give up a on of hard contact, especially off the cutter.

He certainly earned another start but no, I do not think he's part of the future but rather a guy who can hopefully eat some innings this year. He's certainly a nice little story after almost quitting last year only to find himself in the big leagues. I'm rotting for him and maybe, just maybe that cutter can carry him for awhile.

You see a start like that and you have to wonder, why is it so painfully difficult for guys like Kremer or Akin or Lopez to give you even just 5 innings and 2-3 ER most nights? First guy to throw 5 innings in NINE GAMES. And he's just some guy lobbing 85 mph cutters up there. 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

You see a start like that and you have to wonder, why is it so painfully difficult for guys like Kremer or Akin or Lopez to give you even just 5 innings and 2-3 ER most nights? First guy to throw 5 innings in NINE GAMES. And he's just some guy lobbing 85 mph cutters up there. 

It does put their struggles in perspective. Amazing what changing speeds and throwing strikes can do.

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It does put their struggles in perspective. Amazing what changing speeds and throwing strikes can do.

To be fair, Kremer pitched a 6 inning one-hitter in his major league debut.   In fact, he had three straight starts of 5+ innings and one earned run to start his career.   And it’s not like Akin has never had a good game.  But neither has been consistent.  We’ll see about Watkins.   I agree with you that his stuff may not play long-term.   

[Tony-OH]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To be fair, Kremer pitched a 6 inning one-hitter in his major league debut.   In fact, he had three straight starts of 5+ innings and one earned run to start his career.   And it’s not like Akin has never had a good game.  But neither has been consistent.  We’ll see about Watkins.   I agree with you that his stuff may not play long-term.   

I don't think his point was that Watkins is better than either of those two, but that it's sad that two prospects like Kremer and Akin have struggled to get to 5 innings in their MLB career. Watkins threw strikes for the most part and that helped.

[Sports Guy]

Tony, how hard is it to gauge players this year?  We are seeing a lot of guys who are “old” for their leagues playing well.  But every team is dealing with that because of the circumstances of 2020.  Do you find it more challenging to rank these guys until they get to AA?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think his point was that Watkins is better than either of those two, but that it's sad that two prospects like Kremer and Akin have struggled to get to 5 innings in their MLB career. Watkins threw strikes for the most part and that helped.

Watkins threw 59% strikes last night.  Akin has thrown 67% strikes this year and 64% last year.   Kremer threw 61% last year and 59% this year.    So I’d say it’s not really about throwing strikes.   But it may be about where those strikes are thrown.   I feel like Watkins did a nice job staying around the edges of the zone in all four quadrants.    He was able to jam a few guys.