Lowther down, Anderson up

[Surhoffan17]

13 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

It really is weird how they are yo-yoing him around like he's a org guy just eating various innings instead of focusing on his development as a starter. Makes me wonder if the org doesn't see him as an actual starting pitching prospect.

Sadly, I think that's it (org. not viewing him as a viable prospect).  I always liked his stats, but haven't seen anything impressive from him in the little I've seen of him this year.  I wonder if his future could be as a situation reliever?  Doesn't throw hard, so maybe not.  

[Aristotelian]

It is just hard to see Lowther long term as a starter in view of the pecking order. He's just got so many guys ahead of him he is likely to be fighting it out for that 5th starter/swingman spot. We've got Means at least for the next couple years, Rodriguez and Hall in line for first shot at #2 and #3. Bradish and Bauman also have #2/#3 ceiling. Zimmerman looks like a solid #4. That's 6 guys that are solidly ahead of Lowther. Then he's got competition in the next tier with Akin, Kremer, A. Wells, T. Wells, Smith, Rom, plus other guys deeper in the system like Knight who will be moving up the rankings. Seems like his value is going to be as a 5th SP/swingman type so might as well get used to pitching in a variety of contexts. 

[Tony-OH]

25 minutes ago, Surhoffan17 said:

Sadly, I think that's it (org. not viewing him as a viable prospect).  I always liked his stats, but haven't seen anything impressive from him in the little I've seen of him this year.  I wonder if his future could be as a situation reliever?  Doesn't throw hard, so maybe not.  

It's hard to judge him on his major league stats because he's been taken completely out of his routine this year. The Orioles decision to yo-yo him around and rarely if ever having on any kind of consistent schedule really makes it tough for him to get his stuff to play.  i can tell you his stuff was much better in AA in 2019 then what I've seen, but there's several reason as to why.

Is it the major league ball? Could be be tough to say so far. Kremer is definitely a guy who has not looked good very often above AA as well and his breaking ball definitely has less bite than what I saw from him in Bowie.

Is it the strange schedule? Could be because you have to imagine that he's used to starting every five days. He used to the routine before a start and he's able to warm up longer to see what's working that day and what's not. 

Is it he's just not very good? Doubt it. All of his pitches besides his changeup have above MLB average movement according to his statcast numbers. this tells me he just needs consistent work to make his pitches work. Now would a better changeup help him, absolutely, but he never had a great changeup in the minors either though it has improved.

I still think Lowther is one of the better starting pitching prospect in the organization and I'd like to see him plopped into the starting rotation either in the major league or AAA rotation in the second half of the year and let him work it out as a starter. 

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

It is just hard to see Lowther long term as a starter in view of the pecking order. He's just got so many guys ahead of him he is likely to be fighting it out for that 5th starter/swingman spot. We've got Means at least for the next couple years, Rodriguez and Hall in line for first shot at #2 and #3. Bradish and Bauman also have #2/#3 ceiling. Zimmerman looks like a solid #4. That's 6 guys that are solidly ahead of Lowther. Then he's got competition in the next tier with Akin, Kremer, A. Wells, T. Wells, Smith, Rom, plus other guys deeper in the system like Knight who will be moving up the rankings. Seems like his value is going to be as a 5th SP/swingman type so might as well get used to pitching in a variety of contexts. 

Let's do the comparison of Zimmermann, who you said is firmly ahead of him, and Lowther based off their Statcast numbers. We have to remember that we have a small sample size with Lowther and Lowther has also not been given the same starting opportunities very five days as Zimmemann has mostly had this year. But let's take a look..

 

Fastball               MPH      Spin   ext  WHIF%   Putaway   XBA   XSLG   XWOBA  vmov inch   % vs avg   Hmov inch     %vs avg
Lowther               91.6      2205   7.0    19.3%     10.5%      .350   .796    .431           16.8              -7%            12.2              83%
Zimmerman         91.5      2336   6.2    13.9%     7.5%        .386  .730    .498           16.5              -7%             6.2              -5 %

Both have below average fastballs but with a MLB average extension being 6.5 ft, the fact that Lowther has a 7.0 ext release allows it to appear faster. Zimmermann's has more spin but it doesn't appear to affect his vertical movement but Lowther has significantly better arm side run (horizontal movement)

I've got to run but I will try and add their other pitches as well, but Lowther gets the nod for the fastball.

 

[Sports Guy]

I don’t see how the Orioles could make a definitive determination on Lowther without seeing him more at the top levels.

And btw, even if they have made that determination, they are still handling him poorly.  Just because they don’t like him doesn’t mean another team won’t and you crushing his value by handling him so poorly.  
 

There is no legit excuse for them to be doing what they are doing.  It’s just stupidity at its finest.  

[SteveA]

I am trying to remember -- wasn't he a very late addition to Bowie camp roster last year?   Did he have an injury or Covid or something that prevented from being there from the beginning?

So you have a nearly lost season in 2020, followed by a full half season of bouncing around, sitting, barely getting any innings, and not being able to pitch on a regular schedule.  

I agree with Sports Guy and everyone else, this is really ridiculous.   Akin, Zimmerman, Kremer are all being treated much better, getting into a regular rotation.   So are guys like Smith, Wells, Bradish, Baumann when healthy, and of course Hall and Rodriguez.

Heck, Conner Wade and Spenser Watkins have been able to work regularly.   Seems like Lowther is practically the only guy in AA or above in our organization who is being jerked around like this.   (If there is anyone else it is a non prospect).

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's do the comparison of Zimmermann, who you said is firmly ahead of him, and Lowther based off their Statcast numbers. We have to remember that we have a small sample size with Lowther and Lowther has also not been given the same starting opportunities very five days as Zimmemann has mostly had this year. But let's take a look..

 

Fair enough, you could bump Zimmerman down. That doesn't really bump Lowther up. Going from minor league starter to MLB swingman didn't hurt TJ McFarland at all and I think that would be a fine outcome for Lowther. 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I am trying to remember -- wasn't he a very late addition to Bowie camp roster last year?   Did he have an injury or Covid or something that prevented from being there from the beginning?

So you have a nearly lost season in 2020, followed by a full half season of bouncing around, sitting, barely getting any innings, and not being able to pitch on a regular schedule.  

I agree with Sports Guy and everyone else, this is really ridiculous.   Akin, Zimmerman, Kremer are all being treated much better, getting into a regular rotation.   So are guys like Smith, Wells, Bradish, Baumann when healthy, and of course Hall and Rodriguez.

Heck, Conner Wade and Spenser Watkins have been able to work regularly.   Seems like Lowther is practically the only guy in AA or above in our organization who is being jerked around like this.   (If there is anyone else it is a non prospect).

He was late to the camp but I thought I remember there being an injury involved…maybe oblique?

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

It is just hard to see Lowther long term as a starter in view of the pecking order. He's just got so many guys ahead of him he is likely to be fighting it out for that 5th starter/swingman spot. We've got Means at least for the next couple years, Rodriguez and Hall in line for first shot at #2 and #3. Bradish and Bauman also have #2/#3 ceiling. Zimmerman looks like a solid #4. That's 6 guys that are solidly ahead of Lowther. Then he's got competition in the next tier with Akin, Kremer, A. Wells, T. Wells, Smith, Rom, plus other guys deeper in the system like Knight who will be moving up the rankings. Seems like his value is going to be as a 5th SP/swingman type so might as well get used to pitching in a variety of contexts. 

I don’t disagree, but it’s bad to give guys like Mike Wright and David Hess constant opportunities when it’s clear they have revealed their limits, and not toss Harvey, and put Lowther in the rotation for a season and let him sink or swim. I don’t know what he can do, but I hope he doesn’t figure it out for some other team because we didn’t let him do so here.

[wildcard]

The O's will have 14 potential starters going into 2022.   That's right 14.    Means, Grayson, DL, Tyler Wells, Bradish, Zimmermann, Baumann, Kremer, Lowther, Akin, Wells, Smith, Blaine Knight, and  Peralta.   Not all of them are going to stay starters.   Elias/Hyde are probably playing them this year knowing that.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

The O's will have 14 potential starters going into 2022.   That's right 14.    Means, Grayson, DL, Tyler Wells, Bradish, Zimmermann, Baumann, Kremer, Lowther, Akin, Wells, Smith, Blaine Knight, and  Peralta.   Not all of them are going to stay starters.   Elias/Hyde are probably playing them this year knowing that.

And other than Tyler Wells, every one of them is being treated like a potential starter except for Lowther.  Its awful management when it doesn't have to be.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And other than Tyler Wells, every one of them is being treated like a potential starter except for Lowther.  Its awful management when it doesn't have to be.

Lowther, Kremer, Akin and A Wells have all been up and down this season.

Do you think Lowther is complaining about being called to the majors? 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, wildcard said:

Lowther, Kremer, Akin and A Wells have all been up and down this season.

Do you think Lowther is complaining about being called to the majors? 

Tough to say.  I am sure he is frustrated by how he is being handled and how he can't establish a rhythm.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Fair enough, you could bump Zimmerman down. That doesn't really bump Lowther up. Going from minor league starter to MLB swingman didn't hurt TJ McFarland at all and I think that would be a fine outcome for Lowther. 

I think you are under valuing Lowther. Lowther is much better than McFarland.

Either way, I think we can agree that it's tough to get a read on him with how he's being used. I'm not going to get down on Lowther until I can see him get 10 starts at the major league level and then look at the statcast numbers, particularly the movement of his pitches.

[Aristotelian]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And other than Tyler Wells, every one of them is being treated like a potential starter except for Lowther.  Its awful management when it doesn't have to be.

Akin has a bunch of relief appearances for the O's. When the other's hit the big leagues I am sure some of them will be used in a variety of contexts. A good pitcher should be able to get guys out, period. Britton made the transition from mediocre starter to elite reliever with no experience besides a few spring training games. David Price's first MLB experience was as a reliever and he went on to do OK. I'm not big on the "starter" vs "reliever" designation anyway. Now teams are doing openers for 2-3 innings. Admittedly, I would rather see Lowther as a full time SP than Matt Harvey but somebody has to be a flexible taxi guy.