Your 2022 FA Wish List

[Ruzious]

Buy someone who's on the verge of being a TOR - hopefully there's someone like that on the FA list.  Always keep an eye out for an opportunity to consolidate assets (OF prospects) to get a great blocked prospect - yes, I'm particularly talking about CJ Abrams - but also similar type situations.  Btw, Abrams' trade value took a fall - he's out for the season with a fractured tibia and a sprained MCL.  Hopefully, he'll have a complete quick recovery.  Once they can start trading again, I'd make him a trade priority, and get the best pitcher they can in free agency.  There's room enough in Baltimore for Abrams, Westburg, and Henderson - when all of them are ready.          

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Look at the Rays recent history and that will guide you down the path of what kind of free agents the Orioles are likely to sign.

I don’t see the Charlie Morton’s of the world signing here.

This is why they need to make trades and draft and develop.  We won’t (and shouldn’t) sign pitchers to mega deals.  Pitchers aren’t signing with us on short term deals to re-establish value in our park and our division.

So, what you are left with is drastically overpaying (see Alex Cobb and giving him the 4th year) or scraping the bottom of the barrel in the FA market and neither of those options is appealing.

So, go make trades.  Maybe once we get good again, we can get the Charlie Morton type guy on a one year deal.  

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do not think giving Harvey a three year deal would be wise.

I assume the 3 year deal in his sentence referred only to Pineda.  A comma in the right place could have made that more clear.

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Look at the Rays recent history and that will guide you down the path of what kind of free agents the Orioles are likely to sign.

Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Collin McHugh, Chris Archer.  A really old guy and guys who used to be good but aren't anymore.

So maybe Ervin Santana, Chase Anderson, and JA Happ?

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do not think giving Harvey a three year deal would be wise.

Wasn’t talk about Harvey. I’d resign Harvey on a 1 year with an option and try to get Pineda on a 3 year deal

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Matt Harvey?  You must mean someone else, someone who doesn't have an ERA over 6.00, right?

Harvey seems to have turned a corner over his last handful of starts. If he continues on that path I’d offer him a contract to return. He obviously needs/needed to learn how to pitch with his now stuff. Maybe we are lucky enough that he’s done that and would return on a 1 year or 1 w/ a option deal. 

[Sports Guy]

3 years for Pineda?  Why?

He will be 33 before next year starts.  His K rate is on the decline and he has had crushed by injuries for most of his career.  Why would you give him 3 years?  

I can see 1 year for him and attach an easily obtainable vesting option, say 170 IP or something like that.  But guaranteeing him 3 years?  That's got disaster written all over it.

[canonfaz]

1 good starting pitcher please. 

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

14 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I'll say nobody. I don't want the O's to spend money until they start trending upward in competitiveness. 

I think the O's are in a place to lock up a young, free-agent position player that will still be productive by the time the O's are competitive. They have to start trying to win sometime.

In this FA class, the only players that I see fitting that qualification though are Correa, Story, Bryant, and Seager. Will they sign any of them - I'm doubtful. But Correa makes a lot of sense.

[Sports Guy]

Why does Correa make sense?  I mean, I get the Elias connection but there has to be more to it  than that.

He turns 27 in Sept, so he is a good age although not a great age for 7-10 year deal.

This is his 7th ML season.  In his career, he has 1 season where he played in 150+ games, that was in his first full ML season.  Since then, the most games he has played in any season is 110.  The good news is that he has been healthy this year and he was healthy in the shortened 2020 season.  Of course, he was terrible offensively in 2020 as well.

When he plays, he is usually a good player.  His offense is above average at the position and his fielding is good enough although is not anything great.  He averages an fWAR of about 5 wins per 162 games he plays.  Problem is, he never plays a full season, so he has averaged only 3.3 WAR per season in the majors.  (that number moves to 3.7 if you take out the SSS of 2020).

If he can be a consistent  4-5 WAR guy when he moves positions in a few years, he would be worth an extension.  But we don't know how he will handle the inevitable position move.

If he keeps up his current pace, he will probably end up having one of, if not his best year, of his career.  He will likely be looking at trying to get a Lindor type contract.  I don't see how that makes sense for anyone.

If we could sign him to a 5 year deal for 150M, I think I would take that chance.  I don't love giving out that deal with the guys we have coming behind him but none of those guys may stick at SS and we don't know exactly when Correa will have to move off of SS.  Maybe we can get by for 3-4 years and just worry about it later.  He is talented enough to do that but you also have to question if that is the best way to spend the money right now.

But I don't see anyway he comes here for that deal.  Some team will be putting 7+ years and 200+ million on the table for him and I don't see how it makes sense to even approach those numbers.

[Sports Guy]

I would be more intrigued by Kris Bryant but again, at what number?  Im not as much concerned about the salary as I am about the years.  Can you get him for 5 years?  I am guessing no.  How much beyond 5 years do you go for a guy turning 30 before the 2022 season starts?

[orioles119]

Yoshii Tsutsugo, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jordan Lyles sounds about right.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Buy someone who's on the verge of being a TOR - hopefully there's someone like that on the FA list. 

Assume that if the Orioles think a free agent pitcher is on the verge of stardom, many other teams share this belief.  How would the Orioles go about signing such a player to come play for a building team in a hitter's park at a cost that fits a small market budget?  I think the answer is that they can't.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If we could sign him to a 5 year deal for 150M, I think I would take that chance.  I don't love giving out that deal with the guys we have coming behind him but none of those guys may stick at SS and we don't know exactly when Correa will have to move off of SS.  Maybe we can get by for 3-4 years and just worry about it later.  He is talented enough to do that but you also have to question if that is the best way to spend the money right now.

But I don't see anyway he comes here for that deal.  Some team will be putting 7+ years and 200+ million on the table for him and I don't see how it makes sense to even approach those numbers.

It is unrealistic to think the Orioles are going to lure top-tier free agent to Baltimore in the near term.  Possibly if they get competitive again and open up some revenue streams with better attendance and maybe media.  But this is a little like the discussions a decade-plus ago about pulling a Jayson Werth, signing an older player to a well above market contract to prove that the O's are winners and willing to spend.  What happened with Werth?  They paid him over $100M for two good seasons out of seven.  The Orioles can't afford $20M for a zero.  Has Chris Davis taught us nothing?

If the O's play in the free agent market at all in the next 2-3 years it will probably be Iglesias, McLouth, Millwood type inexpensive, complimentary players.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It is unrealistic to think the Orioles are going to lure top-tier free agent to Baltimore in the near term.  Possibly if they get competitive again and open up some revenue streams with better attendance and maybe media.  But this is a little like the discussions a decade-plus ago about pulling a Jayson Werth, signing an older player to a well above market contract to prove that the O's are winners and willing to spend.  What happened with Werth?  They paid him over $100M for two good seasons out of seven.  The Orioles can't afford $20M for a zero.  Has Chris Davis taught us nothing?

If the O's play in the free agent market at all in the next 2-3 years it will probably be Iglesias, McLouth, Millwood type inexpensive, complimentary players.

Well, I think they Werth gave them a lot more than his production on the field but I largely agree with you.

I don’t see the team doing this and quite frankly, I don’t think they really should.  I wouldn’t be upset if they did but I also don’t feel it’s a smart use of money.

It is time for them to start making the team better and adding real ML players though.