Valaika DFA. Mateo replaces him

[7Mo]

52 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

 

Cant argue any of the above.  So far, whatever analytical system Elias is using to acquire talent has not moved the needle at the ML level.  What the Giants have done...what Tampa has done definitely speaks to quality work by their GMs.  The obvious difference between those teams and the Orioles, is that the Orioles continue to say they are not focused on Major League results.  That doesn't excuse the lack of success by Elias...focus or not, it should be just as easy to pick up one cheap SS, 3b or 2B who can play, as opposed to one who can't.  

More importantly however, with so many young pieces near arrival, it seems increasingly likely that we will get a modified vision going into 2022.  Meaning that there will be a focus on Major League success starting next year, even if that focus is still trying to avoid the burden of winning.  Once that happens, the stop gap players that have paraded through will be harder to pass in my opinion.

I remain open to the fact that our talent acquisition has been laser focused on minor league.  And while I know many here have lost patience with the stop gap players, personally, I have accepted them.  But I think that time passes in October and I am looking forward to hearing about and seeing action regarding the vision of the Major League team.

 

____

Edit to add.  Judging Elias today is difficult.  The rebuild isn't going spectacularly well, but it is difficult to say it's a failure.  People are tired of losing and as Tony notes above, many judge through the lens of their own biases.  I am not thrilled, I am not panicked.  I do expect to hear the focus on the Major League team and it's success is upon us.  And I think this time next year we will have a much better set of data to go through.  Just like Elias' first draft....from 2019.

Good post. I hope you are correct that October brings a shift in focus at least to some degree. In no way do I expect us to compete for a $100M free agent but I think it's more than reasonable to ask that $15M to $20M be invested in FA's this winter. 

I'm probably pretty close to one of those "apologist" folks but you can't trade like Tampa without major league assets to trade. The ML roster hasn't had a lot of value to trade to this point. Seems like time to begin ML investments at least to a lesser degree this winter. 

[foxfield]

6 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Good post. I hope you are correct that October brings a shift in focus at least to some degree. In no way do I expect us to compete for a $100M free agent but I think it's more than reasonable to ask that $15M to $20M be invested in FA's this winter. 

I'm probably pretty close to one of those "apologist" folks but you can't trade like Tampa without major league assets to trade. The ML roster hasn't had a lot of value to trade to this point. Seems like time to begin ML investments at least to a lesser degree this winter. 

I am uncomfortable with apologist.  I am generally on board with what Elias is doing.  I believe or acknowledge that ownership complicates the job.  I do not think that should affect Elias.  I think the O's are building talent.  The total rebuild was needed...it's time to begin the climb towards being competitive.  

In general, I believe Elias has been viewed pretty fairly.  I think fans impatience is not the same as irrational thought.  The Orioles have been poorly run for awhile.  Watching this group dismantle in 17 and then bring in Elias to rebuild, while having questions about who is in charge and then a season stopping epidemic have made all of us a bit callous to starting over and building a foundation.  And lets be clear, no one ever watches a foundation go in and says man that's awesome.  They want the finished product and so do we.

But the Orioles will reach a place this October where they have flexibility and opportunity.  There will be very little holding back the Orioles, as they add their attention to the Major League product, that cannot   be addressed. No they are not likely to be shopping in the $100 Million FA market.  But I am eager to see what that focus will bring.  And painfully aware that many fans are simply out of patience for results.

 

 

[Aristotelian]

26 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

None of us had access to his EVs, bat speed, or any other metrics. No one here had the same information the Orioles had when it came to evaluating him so that's a flawed way of evaluating the move. Somehow the Giants saw something and somehow in a short amount a time he became an impact player.

The end results is the only metric to derive the outcome of the move. Elias owned Yaz, he gave him away. Yaz became an impact player. You can continue to make all the excuses for him that you want but at the end of the day, the result is he chose Dwight Smith Jr. over Yaz.

Tremendously unfair. I want a GM with a good process. If there was evidence of a systematic problem I would agree but I am not seeing it. Do you also blame Elias for Kjerstad getting myocarditis? My best guess would be SF did not have anything special on Yaz, they just had a bigger need for OF's. 

If you are going to hold Elias accountable for Yaz, then give him credit for sticking with Mullins when most would have given up a long time ago. Or do only failures count when it comes to results? Maybe we keep Yaz and Mullins never gets his chance. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

None of us had access to his EVs, bat speed, or any other metrics. No one here had the same information the Orioles had when it came to evaluating him so that's a flawed way of evaluating the move. Somehow the Giants saw something and somehow in a short amount a time he became an impact player.

The end results is the only metric to derive the outcome of the move. Elias owned Yaz, he gave him away. Yaz became an impact player. You can continue to make all the excuses for him that you want but at the end of the day, the result is he chose Dwight Smith Jr. over Yaz.

The Yaz family has always been u underestimated, that’s the great story. More relevant, Yaz could have at least been given a 30 day look. What was the harm? His scouts likely said no and there lies a red flag. In the scouting world, you often get it wrong but what was the downside. As you mentioned Smith (who I liked personally but defensively wasn’t going to improve, what was the downside in letting Yaz play?

[LA2]

Must be a fun and frustrating player to watch: Lots of triples (18, 16, 14 in 2017-19, but none in 113 ML at-bats) and stolen bases (82, 36, 52, 25, 24 in 2015-19 with generally worsening SB%'s, but 6-6 in ML), and sometimes lots of homers and sometimes not (12, 3, 19 in 2017-19).

Lots of Ks and not enough walks.

Lots of Qs as we watch and talks.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Tremendously unfair. I want a GM with a good process. If there was evidence of a systematic problem I would agree but I am not seeing it. Do you also blame Elias for Kjerstad getting myocarditis? My best guess would be SF did not have anything special on Yaz, they just had a bigger need for OF's. 

If you are going to hold Elias accountable for Yaz, then give him credit for sticking with Mullins when most would have given up a long time ago. Or do only failures count when it comes to results? Maybe we keep Yaz and Mullins never gets his chance. 

You are being silly. I've never once given him any grief over the Kjerstad situation. I'm just pointing out facts. He came in, fired everyone from the player development side and scouting, then got rid of Yaz halfway through spring training and brought in a very flawed Smith Jr.  Those are facts, not opinion. If you don't want to give him any blame for losing Yaz or Pop, that is up to you, but in both situation him and his crew (Sig/Blood/Analytics team) had the wrong evaluation.

That doesn't they are terrible or that they won't get some things right, but I'm going to call out there failures along with their successes. So far their failures have been more than their success but I'll wait until this offseason to see if he decides to finally put some effort into the major league team. 

I'm of the opinion that he is losing on purpose to get good draft picks in the early part of this rebuild while trying to evaluate the in house talent as much as possible. 

He's done this year and found that Stewart, Akin, Kremer have struggled, Hays, H. Harvey, and Santander can't stay healthy, Tanner Scott will always be inconsistent, while Means, Mountcastle and Mullins are keepers. 

The rest of his pick ups have been to try and find trade value (Iglesias worked out) or guys to take up space and try to look like they are competing.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Must be a fun and frustrating player to watch: Lots of triples (18, 16, 14 in 2017-19, but none in 113 ML at-bats) and stolen bases (82, 36, 52, 25, 24 in 2015-19 with generally worsening SB%'s, but 6-6 in ML), and sometimes lots of homers and sometimes not (12, 3, 19 in 2017-19). Lots of Ks and not enough walks. Lots of questions as we watch and talks.

Mateo seems like the kind of talented guy that you want initially because of the tools, but ultimately leave a team frustrated with his inconsistencies. 

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are being silly. I've never once given him any grief over the Kjerstad situation. I'm just pointing out facts. He came in, fired everyone from the player development side and scouting, then got rid of Yaz halfway through spring training and brought in a very flawed Smith Jr.  Those are facts, not opinion. If you don't want to give him any blame for losing Yaz or Pop, that is up to you, but in both situation him and his crew (Sig/Blood/Analytics team) had the wrong evaluation.

That doesn't they are terrible or that they won't get some things right, but I'm going to call out there failures along with their successes. So far their failures have been more than their success but I'll wait until this offseason to see if he decides to finally put some effort into the major league team. 

I'm of the opinion that he is losing on purpose to get good draft picks in the early part of this rebuild while trying to evaluate the in house talent as much as possible. 

He's done this year and found that Stewart, Akin, Kremer have struggled, Hays, H. Harvey, and Santander can't stay healthy, Tanner Scott will always be inconsistent, while Means, Mountcastle and Mullins are keepers. 

The rest of his pick ups have been to try and find trade value (Iglesias worked out) or guys to take up space and try to look like they are competing.

 

 

I agree it is a fact that Elias let Yaz go to the Giants. I disagree that that is prima facie evidence that Elias has a bad system for evaluation or there is some system or metric that could have predicted his success.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

I agree it is a fact that Elias let Yaz go to the Giants. I disagree that that is prima facie evidence that Elias has a bad system for evaluation or there is some system or metric that could have predicted his success.

You are using absolutes once again. I never said he had a bad system for evaluations. I said this is a situation that brings that system into question, as well as the failure to protect Pop while protecting Mattson. I don't know for sure how Elias makes all his final decisions on his acquisition or the moving of players out of the system, but I do not think the current system has bear many fruits that will contribute to a winning team in the future.

I also understand what he's probably trying to do in the near term when it comes to getting high draft picks while his farm system catches up and can start delivering solid major league players and hopefully an impact player or two.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are being silly. I've never once given him any grief over the Kjerstad situation. I'm just pointing out facts. He came in, fired everyone from the player development side and scouting, then got rid of Yaz halfway through spring training and brought in a very flawed Smith Jr.  Those are facts, not opinion. If you don't want to give him any blame for losing Yaz or Pop, that is up to you, but in both situation him and his crew (Sig/Blood/Analytics team) had the wrong evaluation.

I don’t put Pop and Yaz in the same category at all.  Absolutely nobody thought Yaz was a serious prospect.  He’d been left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft multiple times and nobody claimed him.    I don’t think all the high tech equipment and analytics in the world would have forecast what Yaz has done, and Elias had very little time to evaluate him.   

Pop is a different story.   IMO, Elias knew that Pop was more talented than the Mattsons of the world, and he was under no delusion that Pop wasn’t healthy.   But I think he just believed that no other team was going to select a guy coming off TJ surgery who barely had pitched in AA and missed almost the whole 2019 season.   Well, he was wrong about that, and paid the price.    It may also be that the O’s aren’t crazy about Pop’s delivery and think it will lead to inconsistency or other injuries, so they were willing to take what they thought was a small risk that he’d be chosen.   Either way, I think Elias has to wear that one.   
 

[LTO's]

The notion that other teams are doing significantly better on the waiver wire than the Orioles just isn’t a reality. Especially strange to see the Rays mentioned. Practically none of their value this year has come from waiver wire pick ups and they let Cole Sulser go for nothing.

[Ripken]

He has to own Pop and Yaz... and I'm no fan of his drafts (I wanted Meyer, Lawlar).  That said, I'm happy with the general direction and he still has time, though it is running out quickly.  When ME got hired, I was looking at 2022 for the Orioles to be a decent team.  With Covid, I'll give him a year.  If things don't look much better by March 2023 I'll be completely done with him.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Ripken said:

He has to own Pop and Yaz... and I'm no fan of his drafts (I wanted Meyer, Lawlar).  That said, I'm happy with the general direction and he still has time, though it is running out quickly.  When ME got hired, I was looking at 2022 for the Orioles to be a decent team.  With Covid, I'll give him a year.  If things don't look much better by March 2023 I'll be completely done with him.  

I don't understand the give him an extra year because of Covid mindset.

The O's were not the only team that had to deal with Covid.

I would think that someone with his skillset would be better prepared to deal with something like Covid than his peers.

 

[wildcard]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t put Pop and Yaz in the same category at all.  Absolutely nobody thought Yaz was a serious prospect.  He’d been left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft multiple times and nobody claimed him.    I don’t think all the high tech equipment and analytics in the world would have forecast what Yaz has done, and Elias had very little time to evaluate him.   

Pop is a different story.   IMO, Elias knew that Pop was more talented than the Mattsons of the world, and he was under no delusion that Pop wasn’t healthy.   But I think he just believed that no other team was going to select a guy coming off TJ surgery who barely had pitched in AA and missed almost the whole 2019 season.   Well, he was wrong about that, and paid the price.    It may also be that the O’s aren’t crazy about Pop’s delivery and think it will lead to inconsistency or other injuries, so they were willing to take what they thought was a small risk that he’d be chosen.   Either way, I think Elias has to wear that one.   
 

Now you are writing in absolutes.  I said the Little Yaz deserved a chance.   Prospect is a relative term.

I think Tony is pointing out that Elias evaluation system is not right a 100% of the time.  Show me one that is.  

Elias is irritating the heck out of me right now by not promoting Rutschman and Grayson to Norfolk.  I would even like to see Stowers  promoted.   Westburg and Mundy deserve promotions.    Am I going to say Elias is wrong for not doing this.  No.  Why?   Because I am not in Elias' head.  I am sure he has his reasons.  He is just not sharing them to my satisfaction.

So I don't always agree with Elias.   But he did pick Sulser off the waiver wire.  He did pick Tyler Wells as a Rule 5 guy.     I am reserving judgement on Matt Harvey and Lopez.   What if Holt has been able to work with them enough to be productive pitchers in the 2nd half.  There is some possibilities there.  A good 2nd half from Matt Harvey and Lopez may put them in the mix.  Matt is learning how to pitch instead of throw.   Lopez is trying to conquer his 5th inning mental

I hope  Means, Grayson and Baumann are in the rotation next spring.  But that is only 3 starters.   Maybe Tyler Wells in a starter and Sulser is a closer.  Maybe not.    The O's probably need at least 8 starters. Maybe more.    problem.  His stuff is already there.

If the O's have Mullins, Mancini, Mountcastle, Rutschman there is the start  of a core.   Hays, Santander, Stowers and Neustrom can have a competition for the corner outfield spots.   Right now Urias looks like as keeper.   Mateo and Martin will be interesting to watch the rest of the season.  3rd base may need a FA acquisitions.

When there  are  many options plus more I have not mentioned Elias is probably doing something right.  But probably not everything works out.  It hardly ever does.

 

 

 

[Ripken]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't understand the give him an extra year because of Covid mindset.

The O's were not the only team that had to deal with Covid.

I would think that someone with his skillset would be better prepared to deal with something like Covid than his peers.

Harder to grow and evaluate prospects without a minor league season.  I would think, anyway.  And the O's were starting with less MLB talent than everyone else so they're relying heavily on growth in the minors.