Lowball history of the Orioles since 2000

[DrungoHazewood]

Drungo... I said AT THE TIME you could have expected Gibbons to continue progressing - meaning back in the Winter of 2003, you could expect Gibbons to continue progressing. I wasn't taking the last three years and this year into account when making the observation. I didn't say anything about 2005, since he hit the 23 HRs and drove in 100 in 2003.

Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG *OPS+  TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP +--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+2001 24 BAL AL  73  225   27   53  10  0  15   36   0  1  17  39  .236  .301  .480  109  108   0   0   0   4   72002 25 BAL AL 136  490   71  121  29  1  28   69   1  3  45  66  .247  .311  .482  109  236   0   4   3   2   9[b] 2003 26 BAL AL 160  625   80  173  39  2  23  100   0  1  49  89  .277  .330  .456  110  285   0   5  11   3  12[/b]2004 27 BAL AL  97  346   36   85  14  1  10   47   1  1  29  64  .246  .303  .379   74  131   1   3   0   1  112005 28 BAL AL 139  488   72  135  33  3  26   79   0  0  28  56  .277  .317  .516  123  252   0   1   3   1  152006 29 BAL AL  90  343   34   95  23  0  13   46   0  0  32  48  .277  .341  .458  106  157   0   1   2   2  122007 30 BAL AL  73  230   25   50  14  0   6   26   0  0  14  46  .217  .266  .357   64   82   0   2   1   2   4+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+7 Seasons      768 2747  345  712 162  7 121  403   2  6 214 408  .259  .315  .455  103 1251   1  16  20  15  70+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+162 Game Avg        579   73  150  34  1  26   85   0  1  45  86  .259  .315  .455  103  264   0   3   4   3  15Career High    160  625   80  173  39  3  28  100   1  3  49  89  .277  .341  .516  123  285   1   5  11   4  15

Ok, that's fair, that's probably true. Through 2003 he looked like at least an average corner OFer for a while. He was 26, coming off a solid year.

Here's a funny thing... BB-reference has Gibbons' most comparable player through his 2003 season as Willie Kirkland. Kirkland was on the fast track to oblivion by 28, and out of the league after a particularly ugly age 32 season. The bb-ref comps don't use a lot of data that they could, and don't adjust for context very well, but this one seems pretty spot-on. (As is Butch Huskey, his age 27 comp.)

[Frobby]

I know people can interpret things many different ways, but I think this summarizes the situation pretty darn well. I find it hard to believe we were considered to have "low-balled" Vlad when we had the highest bid out there and were clearly willing to go higher to get a deal done.

The previous year, Jim Thome received a 6 year, $84 mm deal. Before Vlad even hit the market, he turned down 5 years, $75 mm to stay with the Expos. With that background, anybody could see that Vlad wasn't coming here for 5 years, $65 mm. I realize that markets change, but I stand by my position that the initial offer to Vlad simply wasn't smart, and was a lowball offer regardless of what competition the O's perceived was out there.

[Mark Carver]

Saying "i have no issue with..." and actually giving him the 3 years, which you said i was doing, is a different thing.

I clearly stated 2 years.

If you really insist...

Same thread - http://orioleshangout.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=792938

Agreed....2/18 may get him though.....I would offer that with a 9 million dollar player option.

That is 3 years. Why wouldn't Huff take the option, short of the team being a total train wreck.

I would give him 3/23. Just get it done.

There is no reason not to give him that contract. That isn't that expensive in this market and he fills a big need.

Ok, now you've come down a bit.

If i were the Orioles, i would put 2 offers on the table:

1) 2/18 with a 9 million third year option...Option vests if Huff gets 1050 plate appearances the first 2 years.

2) 3/23...Or i would offer him 3/21 with a 9 million dollar option or 2 million dollar buyout.(basically, however you would want to structure it)

Tell him he can pick whichever he wants and give him until Xmas to do it.

Huff signs with the Orioles for 3 years at $20m, after negotiations.

[thequick]

Drungo,

If you're talking fast-trackers by age 26 look up Nate Colbert, he was done by the time he was 29.....amazing!

[hoosiers]

The previous year, Jim Thome received a 6 year, $84 mm deal. Before Vlad even hit the market, he turned down 5 years, $75 mm to stay with the Expos. With that background, anybody could see that Vlad wasn't coming here for 5 years, $65 mm. I realize that markets change, but I stand by my position that the initial offer to Vlad simply wasn't smart, and was a lowball offer regardless of what competition the O's perceived was out there.

Who cares if it was lower than what he had previously turned down. Didn't Ponson re-sign with us for the same amount he considered a "lowball" offer after we had dealt him to the Giants? Didn't Juan Gonalez turn down a massive contract from Detroit to settle for less later in his career? Matt Harrington mis-judged his value three times during multiple drafts!

If you have the highest bid on the table for a matter of weeks, it is incredulous to me that someone believes it is a low ball offer. Was the Mets offer greater than the $5/$75M from Montreal? Did the Mets ever offer more than we did - and they were considered a finalist?

[hoosiers]

Saying "i have no issue with..." and actually giving him the 3 years, which you said i was doing, is a different thing.

I clearly stated 2 years.

It shouldn't be so difficult to admit you are wrong.

So our FO negotiated a better contract than you recommended. It's not a big thing.

[BaltimoreTerp]

It shouldn't be so difficult to admit you are wrong.

So our FO negotiated a better contract than you recommended. It's not a big thing.

Niiiiiice.

[mweb]

Exactly. This tells me that Tellem and his underlings Cuza and Bentz didn't deal with us in good faith. They kept us in the game long enough for another offer to come along. One possible interpretation is that Guerrero did not ever intend to come here. He refused requests to visit the city. Once two cities with a large Hispanic population got involved, Baltimore became an afterthought. Duquette, then with the New York Mets, was afforded every professional consideration that we should have been given but weren't.

Yep, I agree. Vlad had no intentions of becoming an Oriole imo. His agents tried to get us to bring up his price by using us, they made a counter offer that they had to know we wouldn't touch, but hoped we'd go up to help get a better deal elsewhere.

I do agree with Gesh that we should have set a deadline to avoid being used this way. And I agree with SG and others that we should have upped our offer, but where I disagree is by how much. 7/105 looks good in hindsight, but would have been pretty bad back then, especially considering we were bidding against ourselves.

[Frobby]

Who cares if it was lower than what he had previously turned down. Didn't Ponson re-sign with us for the same amount he considered a "lowball" offer after we had dealt him to the Giants? Didn't Juan Gonalez turn down a massive contract from Detroit to settle for less later in his career? Matt Harrington mis-judged his value three times during multiple drafts!

If you have the highest bid on the table for a matter of weeks, it is incredulous to me that someone believes it is a low ball offer. Was the Mets offer greater than the $5/$75M from Montreal? Did the Mets ever offer more than we did - and they were considered a finalist?

You aren't going to change my opinion on this one. If I were Vlad Guerrero or his agent, I would not have dignified 5/$65 mm with a counteroffer. And I don't know if he would have come to Baltimore or at least gotten serious in negotiations if the initial offer had been better, but I know one thing: he's not here, and we lost out on an opportunity to sign a player who in my opinion would have changed the destiny of this franchise over the last 4 years.

[Sports Guy]

It shouldn't be so difficult to admit you are wrong.

So our FO negotiated a better contract than you recommended. It's not a big thing.

I would rather have him for 2 years, than 3...Wouldn't you?

[mweb]

You aren't going to change my opinion on this one. If I were Vlad Guerrero or his agent, I would not have dignified 5/$65 mm with a counteroffer. And I don't know if he would have come to Baltimore or at least gotten serious in negotiations if the initial offer had been better, but I know one thing: he's not here, and we lost out on an opportunity to sign a player who in my opinion would have changed the destiny of this franchise over the last 4 years.

So you would not have dignified it with a counter offer despite no one else offering you anything close to that and with no one seemingly interested in doing so? That's interesting.

[geschinger]

You aren't going to change my opinion on this one. If I were Vlad Guerrero or his agent, I would not have dignified 5/$65 mm with a counteroffer. And I don't know if he would have come to Baltimore or at least gotten serious in negotiations if the initial offer had been better, but I know one thing: he's not here, and we lost out on an opportunity to sign a player who in my opinion would have changed the destiny of this franchise over the last 4 years.

Wow, I guess I really do not understand how a contract offer guaranteeing $65m over 5 years is not worth dignifying when $70m guaranteed over 5 years was good enough sign as quickly as he signed the Angels offer.

[mweb]

Wow, I guess I really do not understand how a contract offer guaranteeing $65m over 5 years is not worth dignifying when $70m guaranteed over 5 years was good enough sign as quickly as he signed the Angels offer.

Yeah, I don't get it either. Vlad isn't a good example of the O's lowballing.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, I don't get it either. Vlad isn't a good example of the O's lowballing.

I would have liked to have seen them come to the table with more to begin with, however it wasn't terrible.

It was the ending offer that was a joke.

[orioles119]

The Orioles should not have bid against themselves, something that seemingly was the case forever. That has been brought up countless times as well.