Proposal: O's spend 40m in FA

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

If he catches 130 games and puts up an OPS+ of 130 for five years, he's about half way to the Hall of Fame.

Might I suggest you will be disappointed.

Much of what worked against Wieters every really reaching his offensive ceiling, will be working against Rutschman too.

Namely, the burden of the tools of ignorance.

I think AR is going to be a hell of a player.  I just don't think he's hitting 3-4 on a playoff team.

Wieters didnt peak because he was a catcher.  He peaked because the ML pitching was superior to his abilities as an offensive player.

Mauer had an OpS+ of 130 or more 7 times.  Posey has done it 5 times and was close another.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Wieters was a college closer.  He went over 95+ off the mound.  He had the better arm.

Wieters was also bigger and stronger, and as you point out, a more productive power hitter in the MiLs.

It's not controversial at all to state that Wieters was seen as having more power and a better arm as a prospect than AR.

Sure it is..show me.  Show me scouting reports that say it.

You are just making stuff up. 
 

Adley is, without question, a much more highly sought after defensive catcher (as a prospect) than Wieters ever was.  That’s not actually up for debate. 
 

Offensively I agree it’s closer but I don’t think Wieters distinguished himself as far superior.  It’s also a different era, so you aren’t taking into account park effects, changes in the sport, etc…so numbers (again overall numbers done in a SSS) only mean so much without the proper historical context.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not hindsight.  In every sport, there is a top prospect..a #1 pick, etc…Trevor Lawrence was just the #1 pick and was universally recognized as the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck.  Plenty of QBs have gone #1 since then but Lawrence grades out higher.

Wander Franco was just the #1 prospect in baseball.  To me, he’s a better #1 than Adley.  Hell, I don’t even think Adley should be ranked #1 now.

But I think he has a higher ceiling than Wieters did.

Well, I completely agree that not all #1 prospects were equally highly regarded when they held that ranking.   I also agree that Rutschman is not as highly regarded as Franco was.  I just disagree that Rutschman grades out higher now than Wieters did back when he was the no. 1 ranked prospect.    The evaluations on Wieters were sky-high.   They just turned out to be way overblown.  

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wieters didnt peak because he was a catcher.  He peaked because the ML pitching was superior to his abilities as an offensive player.

Mauer had an OpS+ of 130 or more 7 times.  Posey has done it 5 times and was close another.

Yes, the two guys I already mentioned as being the only outliers I can even remember in my lifetime.

Did you ever play?  Did you ever catch?

Catching has a detrimental effect on a player's offensive abilities.  That's not really even debatable among baseball people.

It's why guys like Harper or Biggio don't even get the chance to catch much.  They're too valuable to expose to those effects.

 

[SteveA]

3 hours ago, Pickles said:

Fair enough.  But you have to pay for that.  

I'd rather pay for that than pay arbitration rate for Pedro.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure it is..show me.  Show me scouting reports that say it.

You are just making stuff up. 
 

Adley is, without question, a much more highly sought after defensive catcher (as a prospect) than Wieters ever was.  That’s not actually up for debate. 
 

Offensively I agree it’s closer but I don’t think Wieters distinguished himself as far superior.  It’s also a different era, so you aren’t taking into account park effects, changes in the sport, etc…so numbers (again overall numbers done in a SSS) only mean so much without the proper historical context.

I'm making stuff up?

The indisputable facts I stated?

Wieters was a college closer.  He went over 95 off the mound.  He had a BETTER ARM than AR.  And no scout would deny it. 

Ask Tony.

I'm not talking about glove.  I'm talking about arm.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

I'd rather pay for that than pay arbitration rate for Pedro.

You might be right.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Yes, the two guys I already mentioned as being the only outliers I can even remember in my lifetime.

Did you ever play?  Did you ever catch?

Catching has a detrimental effect on a player's offensive abilities.  That's not really even debatable among baseball people.

It's why guys like Harper or Biggio don't even get the chance to catch much.  They're too valuable to expose to those effects.

 

Sure does but there are guys who overcome that.  Adley should be one of those guys.  If he's not, he is a disappointment.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Well, I completely agree that not all #1 prospects were equally highly regarded when they held that ranking.   I also agree that Rutschman is not as highly regarded as Franco was.  I just disagree that Rutschman grades out higher now than Wieters did back when he was the no. 1 ranked prospect.    The evaluations on Wieters were sky-high.   They just turned out to be way overblown.  

Yes they were....as they are with Adley.  The scouts were wrong (and I felt that the moment I saw him) on Wieters but I don't feel they will be with Rutschman.

[HowAboutThat]

8 hours ago, wildcard said:

Negative, Negative, Negative BS.   If the Angelos' are ready to spend 40m, Elias can find good players. There are a lot of ways to do that.   

The problem with your signing a player/pitcher to a long term contract is that it is not in the Tampa model and the O's are unlikely to take the risk that goes with those contracts.  If you at least listened to what Elias is saying you would know that.

Signing Stroman for 4 or 5 years is from age 31-34 or 35.  Injury risk gets higher with age.   Elias is so risk adverse he will not even draft a pitcher high in the draft.  There is no reason to believe he would sign a pitcher to a 4 or 5 year contract.

Price is 36 and will make 32m next year. How does that fit into the Tampa model?

There is a path here for the O's to be a winning team next year.  There will be free agents and other moves the O's can make without spend big on risky players.  I feel sure Elias and staff can identify and make  those acquisition if given the green light to spend some money.

I’m still formulating my own thoughts, but your comment about Charlie being signed by Tampa was one picture being added to an already outstanding team. We need damn near everything. We can collect a solid defending outfield that hits above average as a group, and that runs elite as a group. Yay outfield. But We need literally everything else. We got nothing. We have some question marks That are darker than others, Urias may be something, for instance, Mountcastle may be something if he remains at 1b/DH, which seems the plan. After that? Crickets. The rotation is Means and a bunch of shrug emojis.

I think this plan is best addressed by emptying out everybody who’s not going to be productive and going from there. That would leave you with about eight people, and you where are you going to get the next 22?

[sportsfan8703]

Just give the $40 million to Correa. 

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure does but there are guys who overcome that.  Adley should be one of those guys.  If he's not, he is a disappointment.

I caught for a few years when I was young.  I usually played SS because I was the best athlete on the team, but when I was ten our catcher got hurt, and my dad was coach, so he made me catch.  I liked it.  I was good at it so I stayed there for a couple years until the fields got big and they put me back at SS.

That was 25 years ago.  I can't extend my left thumb fully to this day because I broke it so many times catching- specifically foul tips which go straight down, miss the gloves' webbing, and just push your thumb back.

You're probably talking about 100 6 inning games over two seasons.  In Little League.

The abuse that full time big league catchers must suffer over the course of a season is unfathomable.

NOBODY hits to their full potential if they're catching consistently.

If AR was this 900+ OPS monster, then we should find him another position.

If he is rather a good, but not great hitter, he should catch- while we should accept that he will never hit to his full potential doing so.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I caught for a few years when I was young.  I usually played SS because I was the best athlete on the team, but when I was ten our catcher got hurt, and my dad was coach, so he made me catch.  I liked it.  I was good at it so I stayed there for a couple years until the fields got big and they put me back at SS.

That was 25 years ago.  I can't extend my left thumb fully to this day because I broke it so many times catching- specifically foul tips which go straight down, miss the gloves' webbing, and just push your thumb back.

You're probably talking about 100 6 inning games over two seasons.  In Little League.

The abuse that full time big league catchers must suffer over the course of a season is unfathomable.

NOBODY hits to their full potential if they're catching consistently.

If AR was this 900+ OPS monster, then we should find him another position.

If he is rather a good, but not great hitter, he should catch- while we should accept that he will never hit to his full potential doing so.

Thank you for that trip down memory lane about your life but your life experiences as a player who never amounted to anything don't mean anything w/r/t a conversation about Adley.  I think he is on a slightly different level than you were.

Mauer and Posey are his comps.  That's who I expect him to be.  If he isn't that good, I think he's a disappointment.  If you dont share that opinion great. I really don't care.  

If he isn't a middle of the order level hitter (because he may bat #2 but that doesn't mean he isn't or couldn't be MOO), he will not have lived up to the hype...just like Wieters didn't.  That is and has been my point.  Again, if you don't agree, thats fine..I just don't care.

Quite frankly, this whole conversation is why I wish we had taken Witt over him to begin with.

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Thank you for that trip down memory lane about your life but your life experiences as a player who never amounted to anything don't mean anything w/r/t a conversation about Adley.  I think he is on a slightly different level than you were.

Mauer and Posey are his comps.  That's who I expect him to be.  If he isn't that good, I think he's a disappointment.  If you dont share that opinion great. I really don't care.  

If he isn't a middle of the order level hitter (because he may bat #2 but that doesn't mean he isn't or couldn't be MOO), he will not have lived up to the hype...just like Wieters didn't.  That is and has been my point.  Again, if you don't agree, thats fine..I just don't care.

Quite frankly, this whole conversation is why I wish we had taken Witt over him to begin with.

You're a giant ass.  You really are.

Your expectations are stupid and unreasonable.  But of course, they are the product of a stupid and unreasonable mind.

Trying to reason with a stupid and unreasonable person was my own fault.  I should know better than to engage with you.

You are not here to learn anything.  You're not here to share anything.  You're not here to contemplate anything.

You're here to tell us your thoughts, and anyone who disagrees, gets insulted.

 

[OrangeTurtle]

Jim Callis weighs in:

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/03/callis-compares-wieters-with-rutschman-and-more.html

"For one, Matt Wieters has had a good career for a No. 1 overall prospect, and two, no knock on Wieters, but I think Adley Rutschman is a better defensive player and a better hitter than Matt Wieters.” Callis said. “I think the power and arm strength is similar. But as good as Matt Wieters has been, Adley Rutschman is better.

“He’s got the best catching tools that I’ve seen in a prospect in 30 years of covering this stuff. He has better all-around tools than Joe Mauer, who is more athletic, but didn’t have anywhere close to Rutschman’s power coming out of the draft. And he had more impact with his bat and he’s more polished defensively than Buster Posey was.”

There may be some hindsight and recency bias at play there, but interesting nonetheless.