The AL Wild Card Race

[Frobby]

Going into the final week, there are 5 wild card contenders:

New York 89-67  @TOR, TBR

Boston 88-68 @BAL, @WSN

Toronto 87-69 NYY, BAL

Seattle 86-70 OAK, LAA 

Oakland 85-71 @SEA, @HOU

Pretty fascinating race.    New York has the lead but plays the toughest opponents   Boston has the easiest opponent but they spend the whole week on the road.   Toronto and Seattle are both home all week, with Seattle having the slightly harder schedule of the two.   Oakland to me has an almost impossible task, being 3 games out of the 2nd spot, playing two tough teams on the road, and needing to pass three teams to secure a spot.

Looks to me like it’ll be two of the three AL East teams, but a lot can still happen.

[Il BuonO]

The Yankees are playing well, but I like Toronto’s chances.

[Just Regular]

If Toronto can win their series with the Yankees, they'd be within 1 of them for the weekend with the Orioles/Tampa weekend opponent contrast.

The Red Sox will be short the DH for 160-162, for one last round of columns on that old debate before I am guessing the CBA brings universal DH next season.

Seattle going to Oakland and sweeping four their last big series was an astonishing result - now we'll see if OAK can turn the tables.   The 2021 Mariners are doing a lot of the 1-run game stuff some of those Buck bullpen teams did.   A 5-1 week maybe enough to get them to a WC2 play-in game?

For Team Entropy, I'm pulling hard for the underdogs Tuesday/Wednesday - the Evil Empires could still make it a boring weekend.

Kluber-Matz, Cole-Berrios and "TBD"-Ray for the big East showdown - the Yankees pitched Nestor Cortes the day after Cole, but Taillon due back Wednesday, and Luis Severino and Domingo German famous names now in Once Through The Order mode.   I don't expect much leash for Kluber tomorrow.

[Frobby]

I’d kind of love to see some form of multi-team tie for the second wild card.   That could easily happen, but probably won’t.   

[Frobby]

New York beat Toronto, Boston fell to Baltimore, and the Mariners bested Oakland for the second straight day.  

NYY 90-67

BOS 88-69

SEA 88-70

TOR 87-70

OAK 85-73

You can stick a fork in Oakland if they lose tonight.   I’m rooting hard for Seattle in that one, as they’re the best bet to break up the AL East WC party.   
 

[ChrisP]

It would be great to knock out Bos. Seattle's twitter account is certainly having fun rooting for the Orioles. 

 

I know the thread says AL, but check out STL.

On 9/11, they were behind CIN, SDP, and in the mix with PHI & NYM.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/?date=2021-09-11

17 W's later...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2021-playoff-odds.shtml

[Just Regular]

ESPN this morning has odds on Mariners off day at basically 80/20 in favor of Yanks/Sox over Jays/Mariners.

As the Rays and Astros finish their series tonight, one team is 839-642 and the other 837-638 for AL's best run differential.

Kluber-Ray tonight in Team Entropy's biggest matchup, as Ray I suppose tries to put cherry on top of Cy season, and Yankees I am guessing pitch Rays style to try and beat an Ace like Tampa regularly does to their Cole.

Ray has already earned himself such a fortune this year, but he could still Next Level it shoving tonight, and on if things work out.

 

[Frobby]

Jays beat the Yankees, Red Sox topped the Orioles, Mariners bested the A’s.   Oakland is now eliminated.   

NYY 90-68

BOS 89-69

SEA 89-70

TOR 88-70

Critical game for the Jays tonight against the Yankees.   Heck, all the games are critical for all these teams.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Jays beat the Yankees, Red Sox topped the Orioles, Mariners bested the A’s.   Oakland is now eliminated.   

NYY 90-68

BOS 89-69

SEA 89-70

TOR 88-70

Critical game for the Jays tonight against the Yankees.   Heck, all the games are critical for all these teams.   
 

Astros haven't clinched the AL West yet.

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Astros haven't clinched the AL West yet.

I guess you are right.   I thought I’d read that they had.   

[SteveA]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I guess you are right.   I thought I’d read that they had.   

They need one more win.

And while they are at it, they need a couple wins to assure home field advantage in the Division Series vs the White Sox.

[Just Regular]

Gerrit Cole looking good for Bonus Turn #1.    His hamstring helped hold him to 30 turns so far.

ESPN guessing 60% Red Sox, 30% Mariners, 10% Blue Jays for the at Yankee Stadium opponent Tuesday night.

Blue Jays 1 back now in Must Sweep position, but that is probably doable, and I think they are favorites to be alive on Monday if they can.

Watkins-Manoah tonight feels like "A Lot to A Little" guaranteed, but even so Means with a clean shot tomorrow to do damage to a divisional rival.

 

 

[Frobby]

Houston won last night, so the AL West is decided.   Otherwise, New York beat Toronto, the Red Sox fell to the Orioles, and Seattle had the night off.   

NYY 91-68 (next opponent TBR)

BOS 89-70 (@WAS)

SEA 89-70 (LAA)

TOR 88-71 (BAL)

Should be an exciting weekend.   
 

[bobmc]

52 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Gerrit Cole looking good for Bonus Turn #1.    His hamstring helped hold him to 30 turns so far.

ESPN guessing 60% Red Sox, 30% Mariners, 10% Blue Jays for the at Yankee Stadium opponent Tuesday night.

Blue Jays 1 back now in Must Sweep position, but that is probably doable, and I think they are favorites to be alive on Monday if they can.

Watkins-Manoah tonight feels like "A Lot to A Little" guaranteed, but even so Means with a clean shot tomorrow to do damage to a divisional rival.

 

 

Spenser had better fire up some of that vegemite that Wells ingested before his heroic effort last night.  

[Frobby]

The Yankees and Mariners lost; the Red Sox and Blue Jays won.   With two games remaining:

NYY 91-60

BOS 90-70

TOR 89-71

SEA 89-71

Due to Seattle’s loss, New York can clinch a wild card spot with one more win.  They are guaranteed at least a play-in game to get to the wild card game.  Boston can also clinch a wild card spot today if they win and Toronto and Seattle both lose.   Or, they can clinch a play-in game if they win, even if Toronto and Seattle keep pace.   The odds of a NYY-BOS wild card game look high.    The TV folks would love that.   

On the other hand, there’s still the delicious possibility of a four-way tie, if New York loses its final two, Seattle and Toronto win their final two, and Boston splits.   That would be amazing.