Severino or Mancini - More Trade Value?

[HowAboutThat]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Mancini or Severino get non tendered.    Whether either is traded depends on the offers.    

Weather Severino gets tendered a contract depends on how they value Defense over offense, but despite an 86 WRC, in every category except exit velocity, he is way below average.
(I don’t know what average for catcher is, and I’m assuming that the rankings at baseball savant are overall and not catcher-specific.)So I don’t think his defense compensates for his offense, and as I said I would much rather have a solid defender. And he’s going to get a raise over his $1 million salary, and with a WAR of exactly zero, no thanks. I initially said that Severino had more value, but I qualify that comment. He may be playing better at the moment, but he has no trade value.

[interloper]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

While I know that many on the OH think Severino is worthless, I don't think the rest of baseball feels that way.   He had problems blocking ball but he seems to have gotten better in the 2nd half.  He is tough.  Plays through injuries.  He hits lefties fairly well.   I think he has value as part of the platoon or as a backup catcher. More value than some backup catchers.

His value is in the 2-3m range IMO.   The O's may negotiate a contract with him before the non tender date.

Many here don't agree but many here don't even watch the games.

 

I agree here, this is a fair take. Severino suits up and plays, he's not a slacker like Ramon Hernandez was, if I can bring it way back for a minute. I just think he's not defensively-gifted, but I don't think it's because he's not putting in effort. He's a fairly reliable, if frustrating, guy if you need an offensive-minded backup catcher.

I think if Adley is coming up out of ST, you could do worse with having Sevvy as your backup. It's really just about do you like Wynns as that guy more. Or do you like someone in free agency more. 

I'd like to see the O's trade Sevvy, ideally, and spend that $2-3 million elsewhere. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

I think Severino should be non-tendered and a better defensive veteran catcher should be brought in as a mentor for Adley and to open the season as the starter if necessary. My hope is that this defensive catcher will be signed for more than the minimum but less than Severino would have gotten if he was tendered.

They aren't going to non-tender Mancini, hopefully he gets off to a strong start and can be traded at the deadline.

I really need to study the catcher market to get an idea of who’s available and the likely price.   My sense if we could get someone decent for less than Severino will cost, but I’m not completely sure.   May depend of who else gets nontendered.   

[interloper]

Also, I don't think Mancini is going anywhere. I think we're basically going to ride him out until he hits free agency. 

[sportsfan8703]

I think we will tender both. Severino won’t make that much and the catcher position is thin. I actually think that gives him more value that Mancini. I think we should bring him back, but I’d like DH open to rotate guys through and keep players fresh. 

[wildcard]

I don't think Elias lets Mancini go FA at the end of 2022.   They could trade him this off season.  They could sign him to a 2 year agreement with the ability to trade him later.   But I don't think Elias will let a tradable asset go for nothing.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Not a bad thought but I don't see either team proposing this either. Probably both looking for longshot prospects that don't cost anything. With Minor we'd be getting a 1 WAR pitcher for $10M, not really a win in salary and arguably not really an improvement over Akin/Zimmerman. 

Question:  If Mike Minor gives up 26 homers playing in the AL Central with home games at Kauffman Stadium, how many would he give up in the AL East with Camden Yards as his home park?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think we will tender both. Severino won’t make that much and the catcher position is thin. I actually think that gives him more value that Mancini. I think we should bring him back, but I’d like DH open to rotate guys through and keep players fresh. 

What do you think Severino will make?   He’s making $1.83 mm this year.  Usually the jump from Arb 1 to Arb 2 is in the 50% range or a little better, depending on what kind of year the player had.   

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Well, the Orioles are surely trying their best to showcase Pedro. “Hey Ciuffo, welcome to the club! Grab any spot on the bench and get comfy.” With 3 catchers, it’s not hard to do some late inning replacing and getting guys off their feet at the end of a long season, especially since Pedro hasn’t really missed time.

[amdcpus]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Mancini for Mike Minor. Who says no?

Minor is due to make 10M next year and Mancini will make close to that as well.

KC has some of the worst DH and first base production in the league.

Biggest issue I see for them is that they will also be paying Santana that amount of money.

10 Mil for mancini in arbitration????? It is really going to be that much. IMO his market rate is probably around 4-7 mil each year

[sportsfan8703]

People keep saying they want this good defensive catcher that will be cheaper than Severino and post near his offense?  
 

Who the heck is that?

People need to realize that Catcher is the thinnest position in baseball. Teams just don’t give up catchers with a .694 OPS. I think we tender Severino and trade him. I don’t know how much we will get, but I think something around what we got for Miguel Castro. 

[Just Regular]

Reluctantly moving forward to the boring legalities of 2022, does anyone know for sure how 2022 tenders interact with the CBA expiring December 1?

The Glossary on MLB.com gives "early December" as the typical date, so my guess is Mancini's 2022 status will be governed by the next CBA, not the current one.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/contract-tendered

Obviously, for him and his NL doppelganger Jesus Aguilar, NL DH or not, and any edits to arb process to perhaps reduce weight of RBIzzz might impact which side of the tender bubble they fall on.   I think 1-2 years out both are trying to keep chins above the CJ Cron kind of level, and Cron had to play for Maikel Franco money this year.

I believe we will all stay in the dark on these sorts of Early Offseason answers we are used to having through the holidays.   I'd sign up in blood if I knew now the two parties would get the game of brinkmanship done by the Super Bowl.

Maybe in February we get an NBA style offseason, though.   I saw Passan ESPN write this week a bushel of extensions may be happening before 12/1 for players/clubs more interested in locking in than gambling.   Cedric?

[Yossarian]

I have to believe much of Mancini's slide over the last month and a half or so is from fatigue.  He is coming off a year in which, not only did he not play, he battled and beat cancer.  My guess is he rests and gets stronger in the off season and comes back ready to hit in 2022 like he did in 2019.  This is much more valuable to a team - even if he is limited to a DH role.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What do you think Severino will make?   He’s making $1.83 mm this year.  Usually the jump from Arb 1 to Arb 2 is in the 50% range or a little better, depending on what kind of year the player had.   

He has an exactly 0 WAR. How could he get a raise?

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, amdcpus said:

10 Mil for mancini in arbitration????? It is really going to be that much. IMO his market rate is probably around 4-7 mil each year

I said close to that but looking at it, I think he probably only gets to around 6.5M or so.  Not as close as I thought. Had it in my mind that he was making a little more this year.  
 

That may make the trade more feasible for the Royals.  It’s now a savings of 3-4M for them.