2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RVAOsFan said:

I think I heard Elias gets in a room the day of the draft with his top people and that is when the final decision is made.  I am sure in his head right now Elias has a pretty good idea who he is taking but he has his most negotiating power the day of the draft when he calls the few guys on his short list and gets their final signing number.

So let’s say this is right…that tells me that he isn’t going to take BPA and cares more about the saved money over the talent. 
 

They should know by now how the board stacks up and who is #1, unless they drop people because of salary, which is absurd.

I tend to not believe these reports and I have heard Elias say they won’t know until that day but I think that’s just GM talk.

[RVAOsFan]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So let’s say this is right…that tells me that he isn’t going to take BPA and cares more about the saved money over the talent. 
 

They should know by now how the board stacks up and who is #1, unless they drop people because of salary, which is absurd.

I tend to not believe these reports and I have heard Elias say they won’t know until that day but I think that’s just GM talk.

No, not necessarily.  It is a negotiation tactic to hold the information to himself as long as he can up until the draft.  There are several players here who would love to be drafted number 1 overall, it has the most slot value and it comes with being able to say you were the number 1 draft pick.  

Elias may have known for the past 6 months that Jones would be his pick and ready to pay whatever, but if Jones drops his number 100k on Sunday because he is worried he could slip in the draft then it was negotiated well be Elias.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RVAOsFan said:

No, not necessarily.  It is a negotiation tactic to hold the information to himself as long as he can up until the draft.  There are several players here who would love to be drafted number 1 overall, it has the most slot value and it comes with being able to say you were the number 1 draft pick.  

Elias may have known for the past 6 months that Jones would be his pick and ready to pay whatever, but if Jones drops his number 100k on Sunday because he is worried he could slip in the draft then it was negotiated well be Elias.

I think Elias knows. My point is about the ranking and drafting.

If he feels that Jones is #1 on his board, he shouldn’t drop Jones to #2 because he wants 8.5M and Johnson wants 6.5M.   You don’t drop a player because of that.  
 

 

[sylvester]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He definitely is a better prospect than Tork.  The McDaniel article said he would have gone 1 in most of the last 15 or so drafts.

 

And there 3 or 4 moths ago Green was the consensus top pick and a once in a generation talent, that everyone was clamoring over.   

[OriolesMagic83]

7 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

No, not necessarily.  It is a negotiation tactic to hold the information to himself as long as he can up until the draft.  There are several players here who would love to be drafted number 1 overall, it has the most slot value and it comes with being able to say you were the number 1 draft pick.  

Elias may have known for the past 6 months that Jones would be his pick and ready to pay whatever, but if Jones drops his number 100k on Sunday because he is worried he could slip in the draft then it was negotiated well be Elias.

So if the O's don't draft Jones on draft day because of 100k and draft another lesser player, that's a good choice?  What is Jones becomes a perennial All Star and the player the O's chose is a solid regular.  Is the small difference, say $1 million, worth getting a much less player?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, sylvester said:

And there 3 or 4 moths ago Green was the consensus top pick and a once in a generation talent, that everyone was clamoring over.   

No that’s not true.  People were saying that last year but there were people talking about the swing and miss then.

[RVAOsFan]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think Elias knows. My point is about the ranking and drafting.

If he feels that Jones is #1 on his board, he shouldn’t drop Jones to #2 because he wants 8.5M and Johnson wants 6.5M.   You don’t drop a player because of that.  
 

 

Gotcha.  When I think of mock drafts I think of it from an NFL perspective where these mock drafters are using there sources and teams needs and player talents to try and predict the outcome of the draft.  In this case these analysts cannot get any kind of read on what the Orioles will do number 1, which I just think is pretty entertaining because they cannot predict the number 1 pick or the following several picks.  Yet, I am sure we will see 10 more mock drafts come out before Sunday night.

[RVAOsFan]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

So if the O's don't draft Jones on draft day because of 100k and draft another lesser player, that's a good choice?  What is Jones becomes a perennial All Star and the player the O's chose is a solid regular.  Is the small difference, say $1 million, worth getting a much less player?

No, I said he may be prepared to pay Jones whatever it takes.  That still doesn't mean you don't negotiate for best price.  Waiting until Sunday improves negotiating leverage.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

Thanks for sharing.  I am really finding it entertaining how every mock basically says here is who we think is the best player but we have no idea who the Orioles are going to take.  It has to be very frustrating for these analysts who make a living trying to forecast the draft.

I have mentioned that a few times:) At the end of the day, we really don’t know, nor do the orgs or players:) but profile is important. I think Jones is the pick and really high on Holiday, if he can stick at SS, I’d might go in that direction. Someone I know said he thinks it will be Lee, I wouldn’t be terribly upset by that either. But the key here is: take who you think is best, hard stop. 

[RVAOsFan]

9 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I have mentioned that a few times:) At the end of the day, we really don’t know, nor do the orgs or players:) but profile is important. I think Jones is the pick and really high on Holiday, if he can stick at SS, I’d might go in that direction. Someone I know said he thinks it will be Lee, I wouldn’t be terribly upset by that either. But the key here is: take who you think is best, hard stop. 

Your post on Lee has me mentally prepared to hear his name called Sunday night.  I still hope it is Jones.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, RVAOsFan said:

No, I said he may be prepared to pay Jones whatever it takes.  That still doesn't mean you don't negotiate for best price.  Waiting until Sunday improves negotiating leverage.

Isn’t all that leverage lost when you select him? 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

Isn’t all that leverage lost when you select him? 

Numbers will be agreed to before the pick is made no matter what they may say and no matter who they select.    The Orioles under Elias have signed every top 10 pick they've ever made, I believe.   They are not caught off guard by bonus demands.    They will have an idea before they make any selection on what that player will sign for.      If Jones/Boras want to negotiate themselves out of the #1 spot they can.   In fact, I'm sure Boras is trying find out just how much overslot Arizona would be willing to to at #2 to get Jones.   Boras can effectively negotiate his player to #2 if he tells the Orioles it's 9.5M or nothing if he knows Arizona will meet that number.   Then it's up to the Orioles to select him and call his bluff but I think the Orioles would just go with Holiday or Lee then.   They aren't going to be held hostage by Boras if he tries that maneuver.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Another mock! I don’t like this one. I’d be furious with a Johnson pick!

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2022-mlb-mock-draft-orioles-take-termarr-johnson-at-no-1-padres-scoop-up-kumar-rocker/

[RVAOsFan]

17 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Another mock! I don’t like this one. I’d be furious with a Johnson pick!

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2022-mlb-mock-draft-orioles-take-termarr-johnson-at-no-1-padres-scoop-up-kumar-rocker/

They have no clue who the O’s are drafting. 3 mocks 3 different picks for the number 1 overall pick.  These analysts might as well make the number 1 pick projection for these mocks by pulling a name out of a hat. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

8 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

They have no clue who the O’s are drafting. 3 mocks 3 different picks for the number 1 overall pick.  These analysts might as well make the number 1 pick projection for these mocks by pulling a name out of a hat. 

And Berry is much worse than Johnson. I just hope it’s not those guys!