Can Mike Elias be as creative as Dan Duquette was in the 2011-2012 off season?

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let's look at Tony's 2021 list.

1. Drafted 1:1
2. Drafted 1:11*
3. Drafted 4:2 (103; overslot)
4. Drafted 1:5
5. Drafted 1:21*
6. Drafted 2:1 (42; overslot)
7. Drafted 2:30 (71)
8. Drafted 1:30
9. Drafted 1:2
10. Drafted 2:5 (41)

* Pre-Elias

Not a single International player or player acquired via trade.

 

It’s too early to expect to see an international player on there.   We know we’ll see at least one (Basallo) pretty soon.   There are a couple of others who might make the top 30.   No doubt we’ll see Bradish, Pinto (an international player we acquired by trade) and Peek somewhere in the top 30, with Bradish and Pinto showing up soon.

I’ve added to your post above the draft position of our top 10 and some other info.  

[sportsfan8703]

Elias doesn’t need to be creative, he needs for the players that have been milb seasoned to breakthrough and have success in the MLB. Especially the SP former “prospects”. 

[Yardball85]

23 hours ago, wildcard said:

Dan did not kick the ball down the road for two or three years.  He made moves to win  in his first year.   Elias will have two of the better starters in the league in Means and Grayson.  He has a bunch of 4 and 5 starting candidates.   He has outfielders, a catcher, a 1B and a DH.   He needs to supplement the IF and the relievers.  

If he is as creative as Dan he can make moves to get the team to make a big jump in 2022.   Will he?

Dan's moves in 2012 were not win now moves.  They just worked out well, everything clicked, and the Orioles made the playoffs.  O'day and Ayala can be likened to signing/claiming Kriske/Greene.  You could argue signing Betemit was the 2012 version of signing Franco this offseason.  The moves worked in hindsight, but I think we are giving DD too much credit for making "winning" moves in his first offseason. 

[LA2]

48 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Dan's moves in 2012 were not win now moves.  They just worked out well, everything clicked, and the Orioles made the playoffs.  O'day and Ayala can be likened to signing/claiming Kriske/Greene.  You could argue signing Betemit was the 2012 version of signing Franco this offseason.  The moves worked in hindsight, but I think we are giving DD too much credit for making "winning" moves in his first offseason. 

Except that Duquette did other important things that year that made the O's 2012 success possible and which were a lot more than luck. Two quick examples: the type of quick and copious in-season roster moves that the league--let alone the O's--had never seen before and

giving 19-years-old Manny Machado a crash course in playing third base and calling him up to consolidate the infield during the August / September race for the Wild Card spot.

[tntoriole]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

Dan had a lot of things go his way that first offseason.   I’m sure Elias couid make a series of similar moves, but the odds they’d be as successful are not high.   Finding a guy like Gonzalez in the Mexican League doesn’t happen very often, nor does signing a guy like Chen that cheaply (by the way, the legwork on Chen was done before Dan arrived, though Chen was signed afterwards).

GMs make moves and sometimes they go their way and sometimes they don’t.   I think back to the 2014-15 offseason when Dan tried to replace Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz with an assortment of other cheaper players and literally all of them had poor seasons in 2015.    He wasn’t a worse GM then than in 2012, but when you shop in the bargain bin you aren’t always going to come out on top.   There’s some luck involved.   
 

Maybe Dan's mind (and heart) were spending a bit of time elsewhere in the 2014-15 offseason compared to 2012. 

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Maybe Dan's mind (and heart) were spending a bit of time elsewhere in the 2014-15 offseason compared to 2012. 

 

I’ve heard that theory, but to me the strategy wasn’t terrible, he just got below normal performance from 5-6 different guys.   

[fitzi22]

On 11/5/2021 at 2:03 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Let's look at Tony's 2021 list.

1. Drafted
2. Drafted
3. Drafted
4. Drafted
5. Drafted
6. Drafted
7. Drafted
8. Drafted
9. Drafted
10. Drafted

Not a single International player or player acquired via trade.

 

Yes I understand CoC.  But we haven’t really had much to trade.  He got Stallings and Pinto for Iglesias.  The players aquired in the Bundy deal are interesting and still working their way up.  I’m just saying it’s impressive to have gotten anything of value for what we traded away. Heck Duquette traded away 1000 times the talent during the fire sale and we got very little in return.  I like that Elias can look deeper into teams talent pool and still pull prospects.

Edited November 6, 2021 by fitzi22

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, fitzi22 said:

Yes I understand CoC.  But we haven’t really had much to trade.  He got Stallings and Pinto for Iglesias.  The players aquired in the Bundy deal are interesting and still working their way up.  I’m just saying it’s impressive to have gotten anything of value for what we traded away. Heck Duquette traded away 1000 times the talent during the fire sale and we got very little in return.  I like that Elias can look deeper into teams talent pool and still pull prospects.

You don't think Bundy was worth an actual prospect?

Right now the farm system is overwhelmingly built on the draft.

I haven't seen much evidence that Elias has a particular ability to get "quality prospects" in trade.  

 

[interloper]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think Bundy was worth an actual prospect?

Right now the farm system is overwhelmingly built on the draft.

I haven't seen much evidence that Elias has a particular ability to get "quality prospects" in trade.  

 

Bradish isn't an actual prospect? That we got 4 pitchers for Bundy at all was a small miracle, but Bradish and Brnovich alone is a nice return IMO.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

Bradish isn't an actual prospect? That we got 4 pitchers for Bundy at all was a small miracle, but Bradish and Brnovich alone is a nice return IMO.

I don't think we've seen enough of a return to state with any certainly that Elias is above average in regards to trading. 

 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ve heard that theory, but to me the strategy wasn’t terrible, he just got below normal performance from 5-6 different guys.   

Maybe a few more meetings .. more research or maybe he just mailed it in.. we will never know but when I am negotiating hard for another job in another place, my current performance sometimes slips.. because my wife wants to know what I am thinking, are we maybe moving, is it more money .. so she keeps me up at night etc 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think we've seen enough of a return to state with any certainly that Elias is above average in regards to trading. 

 

That's a fair statement in and of itself.

It would be interesting to see Elias trade someone who could command high level prospects, like Means or Mullins, just to kind of see where he'd focus in terms of the return. I doubt that's in the cards but it would be fun to analyze.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Seems like a pure cost-cutting move by the Reds.   They said they’ve been looking to trade him for several weeks but couldn’t find a taker.  Kind of surprising.

Having Miley claimed saved them the $1 million buyout of his option.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, interloper said:

That's a fair statement in and of itself.

It would be interesting to see Elias trade someone who could command high level prospects, like Means or Mullins, just to kind of see where he'd focus in terms of the return. I doubt that's in the cards but it would be fun to analyze.

 

We can see what he can get for Adley in three years.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

We can see what he can get for Adley in three years.

At least 5