Elias Q&A with Meoli

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Yardball85 said:

I think the Orioles could be like Detroit, or even the White Sox/Cubs.  They don't just have to add players on cheap, short term contracts.  Sure, they cannot and should not be reckless with their spending (see Panda and Han Ram contracts), but they can give out a big contract every few years if that is what is needed to lure a good player here. 

The Tigers and White Sox are not in the same division with the Yankees, Red Sox and  Jays.   The competition level is not the same.

[Porky]

1 hour ago, Yardball85 said:

I think the Orioles could be like Detroit, or even the White Sox/Cubs.  They don't just have to add players on cheap, short term contracts.  Sure, they cannot and should not be reckless with their spending (see Panda and Han Ram contracts), but they can give out a big contract every few years if that is what is needed to lure a good player here. 

St. Louis and Baltimore are similar cities - and I think the Cardinals are probably the aspirational example to where we could see the Orioles go. An organization that relies on its farm system for the most part, but has the payroll capacity to retain its Molinas and Wainwrights, and afford an outside-sourced star or two.

Which would be amazing, the Cardinals have two World Series Championships and only one losing season since 2000. Pretty impressive.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The Tigers and White Sox are not in the same division with the Yankees, Red Sox and  Jays.   The competition level is not the same.

So what?   All the Orioles can do is be as good as they can be.   They can’t control what the competition does.   The only difference I see is that you might “make your move” a little sooner if you thought 88-90 wins could get you a division title, compared to if it’s going to take 95-100.   But with the wild card, I’m not sure it even matters.   In any event, I don’t think playing in a more competitive division is a rationale for spending less than if we were in a less competitive one.  

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Didn't Tampa sign Nelson Cruz? I don't think their model precludes smart FA contracts or team friendly extensions. Remember when we used to have the Oriole Way? I don't recall how our payroll compared back then but it was about developing players. Would it be more politically acceptable to the fan base if we had our own name for it? What we can all agree on is we shouldn't hand out dumb FA contracts, which most are when you get into 10 year/$200M+ territory.

Tampa acquired Cruz on July 22nd with 5.1m left on his contract.

[Sports Guy]

Tampa just signed a player to a 12/225M deal.  Guess we can throw out the idea that Tampa won’t spend on a big contract.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Tampa just signed a player to a 12/225M deal.  Guess we can throw out the idea that Tampa won’t spend on a big contract.

They also signed Longoria to a $100 mm extension a few years ago.   Got burned a bit on that one after cleaning up on his original long term deal he signed as a rookie.   But I like the Franco deal - started a thread on the MLB forum about it, since it doesn’t really belong here.   

[LookinUp]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So what?   All the Orioles can do is be as good as they can be.   They can’t control what the competition does.   The only difference I see is that you might “make your move” a little sooner if you thought 88-90 wins could get you a division title, compared to if it’s going to take 95-100.   But with the wild card, I’m not sure it even matters.   In any event, I don’t think playing in a more competitive division is a rationale for spending less than if we were in a less competitive one.  

Well, Elias didn't say that it does, but he kind of did...

He said allocation of resources will be driven by playoff odds. Our odds are lower to make the playoffs in any given season because the 76 division games we play are harder than the 76 games other teams in the division play.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

OH posters (myself included) attempting to decipher Elias answers in this interview.

Well I know a certain someone will make no less than 15 new threads based off this interview.  

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If MLB promised us a franchise within 3 years and it was either the Angelos family stays here and keeps the team or moves the franchise, I would gladly take no baseball for a few years.

Yeah but it would feel like their soul moved to the new city. Nashville Orioles has a nice ring to it. 

[Yardball85]

33 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The Tigers and White Sox are not in the same division with the Yankees, Red Sox and  Jays.   The competition level is not the same.

What? The Orioles can't hand out mid-sized contract like the Tigers and White Sox that could help the team, because of the division they are in? I honestly do not get that argument at all.  They should aspire to be as good as they can be and make smart baseball decisions, regardless of what division they are in. 

Also, why can't the Orioles be like the Jays?  Are the Jays/Toronto a significantly wealthier franchise?

[Yardball85]

13 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Well, Elias didn't say that it does, but he kind of did...

He said allocation of resources will be driven by playoff odds. Our odds are lower to make the playoffs in any given season because the 76 division games we play are harder than the 76 games other teams in the division play.

That may be their reasoning, but it is very poor reasoning in my opinion. 

 

[Aristotelian]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Tampa just signed a player to a 12/225M deal.  Guess we can throw out the idea that Tampa won’t spend on a big contract.

Great move for them. Not quite as good as the Braves deal with Acuna. Still much better deployment of dollars on a team friendly extension than they can likely get on anyone on the open market. Too bad we picked the wrong guy, waited too long, and spent way, way, way too much. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

What? The Orioles can't hand out mid-sized contract like the Tigers and White Sox that could help the team, because of the division they are in? I honestly do not get that argument at all.  They should aspire to be as good as they can be and make smart baseball decisions, regardless of what division they are in. 

Also, why can't the Orioles be like the Jays?  Are the Jays/Toronto a significantly wealthier franchise?

Yea, our division is exactly why we can do that.  It’s such a cop out, dumb answer when people say that.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So what?   All the Orioles can do is be as good as they can be.   They can’t control what the competition does.   The only difference I see is that you might “make your move” a little sooner if you thought 88-90 wins could get you a division title, compared to if it’s going to take 95-100.   But with the wild card, I’m not sure it even matters.   In any event, I don’t think playing in a more competitive division is a rationale for spending less than if we were in a less competitive one.  

I don't agree at all.  The O's as a rebuilding team in the AL East with an unbalanced schedule required to play the Yankees, Red Sox, Jays and Rays 19 times as year against each team.   That is way different from what the Tigers and White Sox have to do.

And as a rebuilding team Elias knows right now he is not as good as any of those teams.  So now is not the time to spend big bucks on FA.   When he has his core together in the majors he probably can compete with those teams.  These high draft choices probably have high ceilings that combined form a playoff quality team.  

There will be holes that should be filled with FA or trades. And money will be spent on them as well as higher arbitration eligible players that have to be signed.  And possibly extensions for key players.

I am not saying the in 2022 Elias should not sign FAs.   He probably needs to sign FA pitching.  I think he might sign a reliever or two and maybe a starter. But not for big contracts.  One or two year contracts not exceeding 12 to 20m per.  Other than that I think we will see maybe a 2M contract for a 3B and a million for a backup catcher.  

This does not mean the O's can't improve in 2022.  A line of Mullins, Mancini, Mountcastle, Adley, Santander, Hays, Urias, Harrison and Mateo  may be pretty good with Stowers being promoted when injuries him.

I think we have to realize that Adley, Urias, Harrison, Mateo, Stowers are all either new or are in expanded roles that could out perform what was in those spots last year.

A rotation of Means, Grayson, T Wells, Baumann and Bradish  playing most of the season with  Ellis, Lowther, Akin Zimmermann, Kremer and A Well filling in.  DL  Hall joining  sometime in the 2nd half.

I think Sulser, Lopez, Scott, Tate, Fry, Bautista, Baker could use some veteran help in the pen.  But that should be not break the bank.

[Sports Guy]

40 minutes ago, Porky said:

St. Louis and Baltimore are similar cities - and I think the Cardinals are probably the aspirational example to where we could see the Orioles go. An organization that relies on its farm system for the most part, but has the payroll capacity to retain its Molinas and Wainwrights, and afford an outside-sourced star or two.

Which would be amazing, the Cardinals have two World Series Championships and only one losing season since 2000. Pretty impressive.

Absolutely.  I think our TV market is similar to St Louis as well (which is maybe what you were saying).

No one is saying to be like the Yankees or someone like that.  But the ability to spend 130-170M is there.  Mostly you do with with your own players (this is exactly what the Os did in the mid 2010s) but you can sign that big name guy or trade for him (Arenado) to supplement those guys.