Any surprise non tenders for the Os today?

[Tony-OH]

58 minutes ago, interloper said:

Ah, I guess I wasn't aware. To Elias' defense, I don't think anyone saw Fry faceplanting THAT hard, and then continuing to do so at AAA. 

Maybe the lefty reliever market just wasn't real hot. 

Something happened to Fry in August where he totally lost his control. He was throwing strikes at 62% with 20% strikes looking at 10% strikes swinging through august 2nd. Then from his August 4th until he was demoted at the end of the month, that fell to 49% strike rate with just 15% strikes looking and just 7% swinging. 

He walked 15 over 5.2 innings while only striking out 3 in those 10 outings. Something was not right. 

His spin rates and velocity were the same in August as any other month, so he basically just got the Steve Blass yips. The fact that it doesn't get much better in Norfolk suggests it may have been more mental than anything else.

Either way, I'm not sure the Orioles need to tender him as I doubt a ton of teams are going to want to take him on unless they know the yips are gone. 

 

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You can see I disagree with Rich, so I know what you are saying.    But he puts his opinion out there to be discussed.

For sure. Those 3 remain the most likely trade candidates, and I'll add in Sulser for good measure. 

Regarding the recently vacated roster spot, I wonder if Elias has an inside word that the Rule 5 draft will still take place on Dec. 9 during CBA negotiations? 

[Tony-OH]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It was a strange sequence for Fry last year.   Through June 18 he held a 1.78 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and had been very dominant.   Then they announced the crackdown on sticky substances and that seemed to throw him for a loop temporarily, as he threw to a 10.74 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP between then and the all star break over 8 appearances.   I think that pretty much wrecked his trade value because teams were worried about whether he could pitch in the new environment.   But oddly, he turned it around for a bit after the all star break, turning in five straight scoreless appearances before the deadline and another three just afterwards, for a total of 8.1 IP with 1 hit and 3 walks.   Apparently the first five weren’t enough to restore his trade value, or the O’s just weren’t eager to trade him.   But then he imploded again, pitching to an ERA of 27.00 in his final 10 appearances, which included 15 walks in 5.2 IP.

It’s really confusing whether the sticky stuff crackdown was the cause of his problems, given that really excellent stretch he had right after the all star break.   He certainly denies that, but what’s he going to say?

To me, his upside is worth the $1-1.5 mm it will take to retain him.  

It was actually 7.71 ERA over 7 games after they started to enforce it on 21 June but he had a 3.31 FIP and it was really two bad outings that hurt him so I'm not sure that destroyed his trading value. 

I think he just got the yips at the end of the season and couldn't throw strikes. I don't think a 29-year old reliever is worth tendering when the team has Akin ready to take on his role. Plus, I think they can get him through waivers resign him to a split major league contract for probably $1 million if he's in the majors and save the roster spot.

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'm certainly not going to Rich for my Orioles predictions. He's a good dude, but... yeah nahhh. 

The O's could surprise us with a trade today, but certainly not 3. At least not until after the CBA. 

It may not be three trades.  It could be 2 trades or even 1 trade.

[HowAboutThat]

If there is a transaction freeze tomorrow, that means nobody can make any trades at all.

Therefore, if a team is interested in, say, Fry, and he is tendered today, wouldn’t it be to the team’s advantage to just wait until the new CBA is in place before making a trade? After all, the Orioles can’t do anything, and the team that would be interested we have plenty of time to think about other options first. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

If there is a transaction freeze tomorrow, that means nobody can make any trades at all.

Therefore, if a team is interested in, say, Fry, and he is tendered today, wouldn’t it be to the team’s advantage to just wait until the new CBA is in place before making a trade? After all, the Orioles can’t do anything, and the team that would be interested we have plenty of time to think about other options first. 

The contract expires midnight Wednesday, so there’s still a day to squeeze in a few deals.   

[luismatos4prez]

At some point, you shouldn't own a baseball team if you can't afford baseball players.

If all the players are tendered a contract, the payroll will still be less than Max Scherzer's salary this year. I'll be very upset if they take additional cost cutting measures.

[HowAboutThat]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The contract expires midnight Wednesday, so there’s still a day to squeeze in a few deals.   

Yes I know, what I’m asking is whether there is an advantage to waiting.

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The contract expires midnight Wednesday, so there’s still a day to squeeze in a few deals.   

The problem is the physicals have to be done before then as well, so I read. 

[NCRaven]

I believe that the contract has to be signed and final before the "freeze" is implemented.  That presumably means that any required physicals or, at least, a review of medical records, would need to be completed before then, as well.

[NCRaven]

Just now, interloper said:

The problem is the physicals have to be done before then as well, so I read. 

Damn!  You beat me to it!

[Just Regular]

Cot's hasn't fixed their RIchie Martin row to reflect another year of club control instead of an Arb1 guess for 2022 based upon 2.110 days of service as of Opening Day 2022, but I think Frobby's research the Super 2 minimum number of days is ~115 is right. 

I did notice checking Orioles Cot's again today to see if they had fixed Martin that a certain Ryan Mountcastle's "prorated to 162 fractional service days from 2020" land him at 1.105 entering 2022, and Arb1 not until his Age-27 season in 2024.    If the current rules continue to prevail, naturally...

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d be unhappy.   As Austin Powers would say, “toss me a bone here!”   You might find a slightly better player for the $7-8 mm he’ll cost, but the difference wouldn’t be worth the emotional blow.

I would be ok with them nontendering Mancini if the O's did something to solidify the starting pitching of the club.  For example, signing a dependable back end starter for 2 years.  I don't understand how the O's need to keep Mancini to pacify the fans, but not attempt to at least stabilize the pitching staff (not even talking about them being good).

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would be ok with them nontendering Mancini if the O's did something to solidify the starting pitching of the club.  For example, signing a dependable back end starter for 2 years.  I don't understand how the O's need to keep Mancini to pacify the fans, but not attempt to at least stabilize the pitching staff (not even talking about them being good).

If the Orioles had signed an E-Rod or Matz, or were in final negotiations with Stroman, then I think the sensible fans would be able to swallow non-tendering Mancini.

But when the likelihood is that the big free agent pitching acquisition will be this year's Matt Harvey (perhaps the Dark Knight himself), then there is going to be an uproar among the fans for cutting Mancini just to trim payroll. 

If the Orioles aren't going to invest in any veteran players via free agency or trade my preference is to keep Mancini. Plus I think chances are Mancini hits better a full year removed from his battle with cancer.

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

If the Orioles had signed an E-Rod or Matz, or were in final negotiations with Stroman, then I think the sensible fans would be able to swallow non-tendering Mancini.

But when the likelihood is that the big free agent pitching acquisition will be this year's Matt Harvey (perhaps the Dark Knight himself), then there is going to be an uproar among the fans for cutting Mancini just to trim payroll. 

If the Orioles aren't going to invest in any veteran players via free agency or trade my preference is to keep Mancini. Plus I think chances are Mancini hits better a full year removed from his battle with cancer.

I think the O's will invest in some veteran players.  It just may not be high profile players.   Maybe Josh Harrison or some veteran reliever(s) and probably a veteran backup catcher.