Laurila on Beltre, Nettles and Brooks

[DrungoHazewood]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Craig Nettles: 67.9 rWAR

Dale Murphy: 46.5 rWAR

Nettles had a borderline HOF career.   Murphy had a very good 9-year run, but his other 9 years he was basically replacement level.   

The HOF gray area is something like the high 40s to mid-60s.  There are 43 players through 2010 with 43-47 rWAR who aren't in the Hall, 14 who are.  There are 17 HOFers with 65-70, and 7 who are not in.

So Murphy is in the area where 75% of his peers are out, Nettles in the group where 70% are in.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Best seven years of rWAR:

Brooks - 45.8
Santo - 53.8
Nettles - 42.4
Ken Boyer - 46.3
Buddy Bell - 40.5
Bando - 44.4
Dick Allen - 45.9

Beltre - 48.7

It seems to me that, in most cases, HOF hinges on how the player does when not quite at their peak.   Here’s the number of seasons each of these players had above 2.0 rWAR:

Beltre 18

Robinson 16

Nettles 14

Bell 14

Santo 12

Bando 11

Allen 11

Boyer 10

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

9 hours ago, sevastras said:

I think all HOFers should be judged against the competition they played against. Barry Bonds deserves to be in more than David Ortiz but Ortiz was way more like able and somehow that enables writers to ignore the clear signs of PED use when Bonds had zero positive tests. 
Beltre was better than Brooks, but Brooks was far better than any other third baseman during the majority of his career. Beltre wasn’t that far and above his peers. 

The one thing that pisses me off about Ortiz getting in to the HOF on the first try is until now a player only being a DH was held against them like Edgar Martinez. Martinez waited until the end of his eligibility before the writers finally voted him into the HOF. 

Martinez had a higher career WAR (68.4 bWAR vs 55.3 for Ortiz) than Ortiz and only moved to DH from 3B after injuring his knee. Ortiz was just a bad defensive player who couldn't hack it at 1B. 

[NCRaven]

On 2/20/2022 at 4:26 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

There is certainly some recency bias with Beltre vs. Brooks.  But Brooks' case is hurt a bit by having about seven seasons where he wasn't very good.  The Orioles started calling him up at 18, and he wasn't anything like a HOF-caliber player until 23.  Then his age 38-40 seasons he hit .201 with a .539 OPS. 

Beltre actually had more career PAs than Brooks, and was at least reasonably productive almost his entire career.

Of course I love Brooksie, but it's hard to make an objective case that he's better than Beltre.

I curse you!  May you die with no sword in your hand and spend eternity in Niflheim!  May Odinpalmer and Thorboog smite you.

[Just Regular]

This thread got me to wondering if Nettles and Grich are same kind of deal with the walks and defense.

Nettles 8.20.1944 - 1088 career BB in 10228 PA, career OPS+ 110   (.248 lifetime batting average)

Grich 1.15.1949 - 1087 career BB in 8220 PA, career OPS+ 125    (.266 lifetime batting average)

Career BB counting stats - that puts them hereabouts:

81.	George Brett+ (21)	1096	11625	L
82.	Paul Molitor+ (21)	1094	12167	R
83.	Lu Blue (13)	1092	7223	B
	Stan Hack (16)	1092	8509	L
85.	Paul Waner+ (20)	1091	10767	L
86.	Graig Nettles (22)	1088	10228	L
87.	Bobby Grich (17)	1087	8220	R
88.	Carlos Beltran (20)	1084	11031	B
89.	Derek Jeter+ (20)	1082	12602	R
90.	Carlos Santana (12, 35)	1077	7061	B
91.	Mark Grace (16)	1075	9290	L
	Bob Johnson (13)	1075	8051	R
	Robin Ventura (16)	1075	8271	L
94.	Ozzie Smith+ (19)	1072	10778	B

I guess to answer my own wonder, seems Grich was more of a peak guy, Nettles more of the compiler.

[Tony-OH]

On 2/20/2022 at 11:15 AM, Moose Milligan said:

I'm assuming most people on Twitter haven't seen Brooks or don't know much about him.  Beltre wins due to recency bias.

 

 

^^^^^^ This^^^^^^^^^^^

Saying that, Beltre was a better overall hitter than Brooks though he played in a different ERA with smaller ball parks than Brooks. Even adjusting to the League, Beltre's 116 OPS+ dwarfs Brook's 105 OPS+. 

As good as Beltre was defensively, Brooks has a huge advantage in dWAR (39.1 to 27). Brooks played 111 more games at 3B and committed 48 less errors. 

So no Cal, Beltre was not the best defensive third baseman of All-Time.

if we start talking about the best overall of all time, Mike Schmidt and maybe Eddie Mathews because of his bat come into the conversation, but for defense, there should be no doubt Brooks Robinson is the best there ever was over his career. 

Obviously I'm biased because I'm an Orioles fan, but I'd take Brooks overall because of the extreme defense at 3B. Saying that, Beltre was an amazing player and will be in the HoF on his first ballot.

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, Just Regular said:

This thread got me to wondering if Nettles and Grich are same kind of deal with the walks and defense.

Nettles 8.20.1944 - 1088 career BB in 10228 PA, career OPS+ 110   (.248 lifetime batting average)

Grich 1.15.1949 - 1087 career BB in 8220 PA, career OPS+ 125    (.266 lifetime batting average)

Career BB counting stats - that puts them hereabouts:

81.	George Brett+ (21)	1096	11625	L
82.	Paul Molitor+ (21)	1094	12167	R
83.	Lu Blue (13)	1092	7223	B
	Stan Hack (16)	1092	8509	L
85.	Paul Waner+ (20)	1091	10767	L
86.	Graig Nettles (22)	1088	10228	L
87.	Bobby Grich (17)	1087	8220	R
88.	Carlos Beltran (20)	1084	11031	B
89.	Derek Jeter+ (20)	1082	12602	R
90.	Carlos Santana (12, 35)	1077	7061	B
91.	Mark Grace (16)	1075	9290	L
	Bob Johnson (13)	1075	8051	R
	Robin Ventura (16)	1075	8271	L
94.	Ozzie Smith+ (19)	1072	10778	B

I guess to answer my own wonder, seems Grich was more of a peak guy, Nettles more of the compiler.

Nettles and Grich belong in the Hall of Very Good, but as soon as Harold Baines made it in, it sure does make it hard to say guys who produced 30+ more WAR over their careers don't also belong in there.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

^^^^^^ This^^^^^^^^^^^

Saying that, Beltre was a better overall hitter than Brooks though he played in a different ERA with smaller ball parks than Brooks. Even adjusting to the League, Beltre's 116 OPS+ dwarfs Brook's 105 OPS+. 

As good as Beltre was defensively, Brooks has a huge advantage in dWAR (39.1 to 27). Brooks played 111 more games at 3B and committed 48 less errors. 

So no Cal, Beltre was not the best defensive third baseman of All-Time.

if we start talking about the best overall of all time, Mike Schmidt and maybe Eddie Mathews because of his bat come into the conversation, but for defense, there should be no doubt Brooks Robinson is the best there ever was over his career. 

Obviously I'm biased because I'm an Orioles fan, but I'd take Brooks overall because of the extreme defense at 3B. Saying that, Beltre was an amazing player and will be in the HoF on his first ballot.

Does saying that Beltre was a better hitter take into account that Brooks played in a dead ball era?

[Moose Milligan]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

^^^^^^ This^^^^^^^^^^^

Saying that, Beltre was a better overall hitter than Brooks though he played in a different ERA with smaller ball parks than Brooks. Even adjusting to the League, Beltre's 116 OPS+ dwarfs Brook's 105 OPS+. 

As good as Beltre was defensively, Brooks has a huge advantage in dWAR (39.1 to 27). Brooks played 111 more games at 3B and committed 48 less errors. 

So no Cal, Beltre was not the best defensive third baseman of All-Time.

if we start talking about the best overall of all time, Mike Schmidt and maybe Eddie Mathews because of his bat come into the conversation, but for defense, there should be no doubt Brooks Robinson is the best there ever was over his career. 

Obviously I'm biased because I'm an Orioles fan, but I'd take Brooks overall because of the extreme defense at 3B. Saying that, Beltre was an amazing player and will be in the HoF on his first ballot.

Overall, I'd have to go with Schmidt.  His defense was no slouch and the bat was special.  Brooks, for me, is #2.  

But for defense only, it's Brooks.  

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Nettles and Grich belong in the Hall of Very Good, but as soon as Harold Baines made it in, it sure does make it hard to say guys who produced 30+ more WAR over their careers don't also belong in there.

Such a travesty.  And I loved Baines, but let’s get real.   

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Does saying that Beltre was a better hitter take into account that Brooks played in a dead ball era?

Hence using the OPS+ that adjust to league norms for the year.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Overall, I'd have to go with Schmidt.  His defense was no slouch and the bat was special.  Brooks, for me, is #2.  

But for defense only, it's Brooks.  

Objectively speaking, Schmidt probably deserves the overall nod.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Objectively speaking, Schmidt probably deserves the overall nod.

148 OPS+ and 9 Gold Gloves.  Tough to argue against that.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Hence using the OPS+ that adjust to league norms for the year.

That is the number one stat I look at when comparing hitters.    

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

That is the number one stat I look at when comparing hitters.    

I'm a wOBA guy.