Correa (Update, signs with Twins)

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Between 2012 and 2017, the Orioles won the most games in the AL, and they did so without any $300 million dollar free agents and with a much thinner talent pipeline.

Is Correa known as a "leader?" What is the going rate for a "leader?" Could Cedric Mullins or Adley Rutschman or Ryan Mountcastle be a "leader" for a fraction of what Correa will cost, both in terms of dollars and risk?

They probably weren't leaders, but they definitely were disastrous free agent contracts, but many Orioles fans felt they were good moves at the time and were very happy with them until the games actually started. I still remember that some guy who posted frequently in the MASN comment sections had "Ubaldomore" shirts printed up to sell when he signed here, I wonder if he was able to break even on that endeavor...

Are you thinking Correa is a bust?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Are you thinking Correa is a bust?

We can't really know yet, but I'd simply rather not be on the hook for $350 million if he is.

[Too Tall]

If the Orioles do this, it will be - WOW! I don't expect it however and I hope they don't. I just wish it would get over so we can move on to the next "pipe dream." I'm ready to see if any of what we got is worth building around - short stops included. Let someone else buy Boras's snake oil sales pitch.  

[Sports Guy]

MLBTR has picked up on the rumors. Now it’s real!!

[Moose Milligan]

20 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

If the Orioles do this, it will be - WOW! I don't expect it however and I hope they don't. I just wish it would get over so we can move on to the next "pipe dream." I'm ready to see if any of what we got is worth building around - short stops included. Let someone else buy Boras's snake oil sales pitch.  

Is your beef with Boras or do you think Correa is a talent that’s not worth that amount of money?

[Moose Milligan]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

MLBTR has picked up on the rumors. Now it’s real!!

It’s gotta be the Yankees. They haven’t made a splash in awhile and I just get the feeling that he’d line up well with them. 
 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

We can't really know yet, but I'd simply rather not be on the hook for $350 million if he is.

If they front load the contract they can wipe a good portion out while our payroll is low. They aren’t saving the money that’s not being spent so it’s just going in the Angelo’s pockets. If they paid him $50 in years 1-4 it wouldn’t prevent another move or two. They have the flexibility to spread the final 6 years anyway they want …say the next 2 years at 40 and final 4 years at 17.5. The salary would be manageable when we need to extend our home grown guys.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

MLBTR has picked up on the rumors. Now it’s real!!

I read through the 90 or so user comments and only 2 or 3 had anything to do with the Orioles, we are basically invisible lol.

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It’s gotta be the Yankees. They haven’t made a splash in awhile and I just get the feeling that he’d line up well with them. 
 

They just added Donaldson and IKF to their infield mix with LeMahieu, Torres, and Rizzo, and Stanton and the rest their aging vets will need their DH ABs, which doesn't seem to leave much room for another everyday player.

I think he ends up either returning to Houston or signing with Minnesota after Boston signs Story and they get desperate enough to meet his asking price with the savings from trading Donaldson.

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

If they front load the contract they can wipe a good portion out while our payroll is low. They aren’t saving the money that’s not being spent so it’s just going in the Angelo’s pockets. If they paid him $50 in years 1-4 it wouldn’t prevent another move or two. They have the flexibility to spread the final 6 years anyway they want …say the next 2 years at 40 and final 4 years at 17.5. The salary would be manageable when we need to extend our home grown guys.

This assumes that Boras is foolish enough to allow him to accept a massively front-loaded arrangement, which I do not think he is. Those 2031 dollars are going to be borderline worthless at the rate inflation is going lol.

[Too Tall]

17 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Is your beef with Boras or do you think Correa is a talent that’s not worth that amount of money?

Both. I haven't gotten over the last big Orioles/Boras contract. And, ten year contracts for a 27 year old are just not in my comfort zone. I have a hard time fitting Correa - ten years - and 300 mil anywhere near my comfort zone.  Plus, I DO NOT LIKE BORAS!!!!!!!!!!!!

If this comes to pass, there will undoubtedly be some celebrating, hand wringing, crow eating, and wonder/disbelief on this board.  If this comes to pass, I will hope with all my years of rooting for this team, that it works out as a good investment. 

 

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I read through the 90 or so user comments and only 2 or 3 had anything to do with the Orioles, we are basically invisible lol.

They just added Donaldson and IKF to their infield mix with LeMahieu, Torres, and Rizzo, and Stanton and the rest their aging vets will need their DH ABs, which doesn't seem to leave much room for another everyday player.

I think he ends up either returning to Houston or signing with Minnesota after Boston signs Story and they get desperate enough to meet his asking price with the savings from trading Donaldson.

This assumes that Boras is foolish enough to allow him to accept a massively front-loaded arrangement, which I do not think he is. Those 2031 dollars are going to be borderline worthless at the rate inflation is going lol.

You’ve got it backwards.   The higher inflation is, the more advantageous it is for a player to frontload his contract.   

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You’ve got it backwards.   The higher inflation is, the more advantageous it is for a player to frontload his contract.   

Contracts are typically backloaded rather than frontloaded, and my understanding was that it was to offset/balance out the inflation because it takes more future dollars to equal the present-day dollars in the early years of a long-term deal, but I am hardly an expert so it wouldn't shock me if I was mistaken  

[Aristotelian]

30 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Contracts are typically backloaded rather than frontloaded, and my understanding was that it was to offset/balance out the inflation because it takes more future dollars to equal the present-day dollars in the early years of a long-term deal, but I am hardly an expert so it wouldn't shock me if I was mistaken  

As you said, 2031 dollars will be worthless, so it is advantageous to the player to get paid more earlier. 

[geschinger]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

It’s pretty simple.  If the player is exceeding expectations at the time of the opt out, you don’t get the future upside.   If the player falls below expectations, you’re stuck with him.   

Now, I don’t mind opt-outs, but I’m not much in favor of front-loading a deal and then giving an opt-out.   That merely  skews the risk-reward further in favor of the player.   

Here’s a pretty good Fangraphs piece analyzing the value of an opt-out.   
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-an-opt-out-worth/

Thanks for the link, set me down a bit of a rabbit hole with the other articles it linked to.  What I found interesting it that the examples of when it hurt teams was when they ended up resigning the player for more money.   The example in Cameron's article are more a more difficult calculus and I can see clubs being more reticent to offer them in that they were much shorter deals and opt-outs were earlier.  There isn't anywhere near as much reduction of risk value on a 6 year deal with a 3 year opt-out as there is on a 10 year deal with an opt out after 4. 

I know it's very like confirmation bias, but the quote below from this article I ended up on How newly popular opt-outs can be a team-friendly contract tool is where I remain for the type of offer Correa is rumored to be looking for and with those parameters I think it's a no brainer to offer an opt-out and if he signed hope he opt-out after year four.

Quote

What changed this off-season is that more teams realized that giving a player that option—which, in negotiations, is a concession to the player that can tip the balance in a bidding war or even limit the length and cost of a contract’s overall commitment—can actually be to the team’s benefit. The key is having the resolve to avoid re-signing the player for more if he does opt out.

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Has the Boras trademarked “mystery team” gotten involved with bidding yet? If not, I bet by Monday Jon Heyman will tweet out a mystery team has made a generous contract offer to Correa. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

 it is advantageous to the player to get paid more earlier

Makes sense, you can convert the present day cash into hard assets that will only appreciate in value while it's still worth more, i.e. gold, silver, real estate, Hunter Biden paintings, Mike Wright baseball cards, crude oil, etc.