MLB.com top 100

[Just Regular]

Just caught up with this week's MLB Pipeline podcast as they talked over the list.

-on Witt over Adley, likened it to Witt pushing him off the hilltop, not that Adley did anything wrong (Adley, please remember the MLB take for 6.8 or more years)

-on old Adley, described how top of prospect list a young man's land.   He is 24, and you have to go down to #26 ranked Oneil Cruz to find next player who is even 23.

-on bulked up shortstops, highlighted Anthony Volpe as "gamer" who used covid lockout to add to physicality.   Hit me that is exactly what Joey Ortiz did, except with quick shoulder wreckage.   Volpe listed 5-11, 180 - good luck with the 30 HR gamer.

-on dearth of pitching prospects, this year's 29/100 (21 RHP and 8 LHP) is fewest ever.   Had context when they started ten years ago, they had 48/100, midseason 2019 was first dip <40, now is first dip <30.    Also said no cavalry coming as all top NCAA age-21 pitchers hurt right now.

From this, one might expect the 1930 National League, and the league is hitting .300, right?    It is almost like Teams have discovered that pitcher's arms "good enough" to stream if you make sure they slag their arms for two weeks a month is efficient.   Just don't throw slow.

[Ruzious]

And MLB.com rates the O's as having the best crop of prospects.    https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2022-preseason

[btdart20]

On 3/26/2022 at 10:14 AM, Just Regular said:

-on dearth of pitching prospects, this year's 29/100 (21 RHP and 8 LHP) is fewest ever.   Had context when they started ten years ago, they had 48/100, midseason 2019 was first dip <40, now is first dip <30.    Also said no cavalry coming as all top NCAA age-21 pitchers hurt right now.

Even the NCAA guys with arm issues will benefit in the draft.  

[Sports Guy]

On 3/26/2022 at 10:14 AM, Just Regular said:

Just caught up with this week's MLB Pipeline podcast as they talked over the list.

-on Witt over Adley, likened it to Witt pushing him off the hilltop, not that Adley did anything wrong (Adley, please remember the MLB take for 6.8 or more years)

-on old Adley, described how top of prospect list a young man's land.   He is 24, and you have to go down to #26 ranked Oneil Cruz to find next player who is even 23.

-on bulked up shortstops, highlighted Anthony Volpe as "gamer" who used covid lockout to add to physicality.   Hit me that is exactly what Joey Ortiz did, except with quick shoulder wreckage.   Volpe listed 5-11, 180 - good luck with the 30 HR gamer.

-on dearth of pitching prospects, this year's 29/100 (21 RHP and 8 LHP) is fewest ever.   Had context when they started ten years ago, they had 48/100, midseason 2019 was first dip <40, now is first dip <30.    Also said no cavalry coming as all top NCAA age-21 pitchers hurt right now.

From this, one might expect the 1930 National League, and the league is hitting .300, right?    It is almost like Teams have discovered that pitcher's arms "good enough" to stream if you make sure they slag their arms for two weeks a month is efficient.   Just don't throw slow.

I think it’s pretty obvious why Witt is rated higher.  He should be.  Can argue that Rodriguez should be as well.

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s pretty obvious why Witt is rated higher.  He should be.  Can argue that Rodriguez should be as well.

I do not think it’s that obvious, since the majority of the publications and pundits have said otherwise.   I can see a good argument for Witt, but if his choice were obvious, a lot more people would be saying so. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do not think it’s that obvious, since the majority of the publications and pundits have said otherwise.   I can see a good argument for Witt, but if his choice were obvious, a lot more people would be saying so. 

People have Adley because he was the #1 pick and because people had him over Witt in their initial evaluations.

Most don’t come off of those things.

But Witt is performing as well, if not better and doing it at a far younger age and at, imo, a more important position.  
 

I would trade Adley for Witt in a heartbeat.  I think if the Os had Witt and the Royals had Adley, every person on here would be saying there’s no doubt Witt should be ranked higher for the exact reasons I stated.

[Big Mac]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People have Adley because he was the #1 pick and because people had him over Witt in their initial evaluations.

Most don’t come off of those things.

But Witt is performing as well, if not better and doing it at a far younger age and at, imo, a more important position.  
 

I would trade Adley for Witt in a heartbeat.  I think if the Os had Witt and the Royals had Adley, every person on here would be saying there’s no doubt Witt should be ranked higher for the exact reasons I stated.

There's arguments for both, but stud offensive SS are just not the rare commodity they used to be.  The league is littered with them.  Plus defensive catchers that hit, there are what maybe 2?

A lot of Adley's value comes in the scarcity of the skillset he brings to the table. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

There's arguments for both, but stud offensive SS are just not the rare commodity they used to be.  The league is littered with them.  Plus defensive catchers that hit, there are what maybe 2?

A lot of Adley's value comes in the scarcity of the skillset he brings to the table. 

And that skill set realistically will only last for 4-6 years.

[Big Mac]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

And that skill set realistically will only last for 4-6 years.

Sure but who you would rather have 10 years from now is a different analysis IMO. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Big Mac said:

Sure but who you would rather have 10 years from now is a different analysis IMO. 

I disagree.  I think it’s all part of it.

Reasons why I would put Witt ahead:

1) Younger

2) Seemingly better offensively 

3) More important position

4) Career longevity

 

Reasons for Adley:

1) Great leader (so it seems)

2) Position scarcity

I think Witt wins.  But I also think the importance of a great C is severely overrated in todays game.

[Big Mac]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I disagree.  I think it’s all part of it.

Reasons why I would put Witt ahead:

1) Younger

2) Seemingly better offensively 

3) More important position

4) Career longevity

 

Reasons for Adley:

1) Great leader (so it seems)

2) Position scarcity

I think Witt wins.  But I also think the importance of a great C is severely overrated in todays game.

All fair, I don't really disagree with you other than I don't feel it's as clear cut as you seem to. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Big Mac said:

All fair, I don't really disagree with you other than I don't feel it's as clear cut as you seem to. 

That’s fine.  I can see why people wouldn’t agree with that because a lot of people value the C position more than I do.

It’s the age factor though.  It’s such a huge difference.  That’s the #1 reason for me.

And this isn’t a knock on Adley.  Obviously think he’s a great prospect and can’t wait to have him here.   As MLb.com said, it’s just more praise for Witt vs negativity towards Rutschman.

[Just Regular]

Right now I just enjoy that the Royals have pushed Nicky Lopez off SS where he was near MLB-best last year, and camp reports seem to be that it is for Adalberto Mondesi, not Bobby Witt.

Of course it could all just be a front for a few weeks, so Witt can "learn 3B". 

There has been speechifying by GM's and managers, but actions are going to need to speak louder than words in a few days on Witt, Julio, Torkelson, R. Greene, Kirby, Brash.

Sounds like Reds committed to using Hunter Greene.   Not much NL action here....this year AL has near monopoly on the highest profile cases.

[btdart20]

I lean toward SS too.  If C played every day I might swing back but losing 20%(ish) ABs hurts the comparison.  I can't really argue against having Witt or Julio ahead of Adley or vice versa.  All of them look legit.

From an O's perspective: I'm not sure Adley's age is a big factor.  Odds are they won't resign a catcher nearing 30 long-term anyway.  Should be fun to watch over the next few years though!

[Tony-OH]

The position is the only thing that gives Rutschman a little edge if you value a top hitting catcher being much more valuable than what's available. 

I'll be honest, looking at his numbers last year, I'd have to give Witt the edge of Rutschman due to his age and the fact he still plays a high value position (SS).