Elias prioritizes player development over winning in the majors

[turtlebowl]

40 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

 

You can word it however you want. There's little doubt that people are taking sides on it. I happen to be on the side that they should already be investing money on the ML team.

 

 

It is really just a matter of just about every passionate fan is losing patients regardless of what side you fall on.  I think much of the angst goes back to the mistrust of ownership.  The ones that are the most frustrated with where we are at right now typically believe every decision is made based off of the financials.  

From my perspective I'm done watching 4A guys playing every season.  To me we have 2 options, bring up the young guys starting now and let them play and develop at the major league level.  I am not one who believes it stunts growth of a young player to be challenged as long as you are willing to play them everyday.   I think Mountcastle was a good example of that last year, he struggled , continued to play and figured it out. 

If you don't want to do that because think your prospects just aren't close to being ready then fill positions with real major league baseball players.  Once those players are truly blocking a prospect then trade them for other prospects.  

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Everything has to break right.

You seem to be assuming that they are never going to sign free agents. I think they will, just not as soon as many of us would like. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

You seem to be assuming that they are never going to sign free agents. I think they will, just not as soon as many of us would like. 

Just for arguments sake, let's say everything they're doing right now is a tremendous backfire.  Rutschman is Matt Weiters (good, but not amazing), Rodriguez and Hall get hurt/underperform and the rest of our pitching prospects aren't great.  Maybe someone like Stowers surprises everyone but that's about it....and they're a team that's lucky to win 55-60 games this year, putting a severe dent in whatever plans there were for being competitive in 2023.  

Again, just for arguments sake.

What happens then?  

[maybenxtyr]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Just for arguments sake, let's say everything they're doing right now is a tremendous backfire.  Rutschman is Matt Weiters (good, but not amazing), Rodriguez and Hall get hurt/underperform and the rest of our pitching prospects aren't great.  Maybe someone like Stowers surprises everyone but that's about it....and they're a team that's lucky to win 55-60 games this year, putting a severe dent in whatever plans there were for being competitive in 2023.  

Again, just for arguments sake.

What happens then?  

This is my concern as well. One thing that could happen they steamroll into 10 plus years of losing. 

[Oriole1940]

I am sure  that the baseball minds in the organization have covered that base as well.  

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Just for arguments sake, let's say everything they're doing right now is a tremendous backfire.  Rutschman is Matt Weiters (good, but not amazing), Rodriguez and Hall get hurt/underperform and the rest of our pitching prospects aren't great.  Maybe someone like Stowers surprises everyone but that's about it....and they're a team that's lucky to win 55-60 games this year, putting a severe dent in whatever plans there were for being competitive in 2023.  

Again, just for arguments sake.

What happens then?  

Well, if those things happen, we would be screwed anyway.

Your foundation, your true core has to come from within.  If you aren’t producing that, you aren’t winning anything.

[Porky]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

It absolutely is hubris. He’s essentially saying, “these guys I’m selecting are going to be great and our development system is so strong that we will be able to build a competitive club completely on our own.  I can get this organization to 75-81 wins without spending a meaningful dime in free agency.”

 

Alright, Harvard guy.  Let’s see it happen.

 

Or, the Orioles' brand and culture has been tanked so far into oblivion, it is going to be more difficult to land contributing free agents than simply writing the biggest checks. 

[LookinUp]

3 hours ago, jabba72 said:

This was in Roch's blog this morning, a few other Elias quotes are there. 

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2022/03/latest-cuts-curtail-some-camp-curiosities-and-keep-with-the-plan.html

 

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

They can become good at the ML level.

They are doing this to save money and service time later.  You are fooling yourself if you think it’s more than that.

Disassociating the lack of mid-high level talent added to the ML team from the decision not to promote some of our better young arms...

I think the latter issue is easily defensible, as was quoted in jabba's post. I do want those arms built up properly and I do see more pressure to extend them, get them caught in long innings, etc. at the ML level than the minor league level. I don't mind that they demoted Hall and Bradish, and I don't think it's as simple as saving money.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

 

Disassociating the lack of mid-high level talent added to the ML team from the decision not to promote some of our better young arms...

I think the latter issue is easily defensible, as was quoted in jabba's post. I do want those arms built up properly and I do see more pressure to extend them, get them caught in long innings, etc. at the ML level than the minor league level. I don't mind that they demoted Hall and Bradish, and I don't think it's as simple as saving money.

Bradish should be here.  Not really a good reason not to do it.

I don’t have an issue with Hall being sent down but let’s also not pretend that their reasons for doing it are solely because they feel it’s what is best for development.  That’s all I’m saying.

[SteveA]

23 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Just for arguments sake, let's say everything they're doing right now is a tremendous backfire.  Rutschman is Matt Weiters (good, but not amazing), Rodriguez and Hall get hurt/underperform and the rest of our pitching prospects aren't great.  Maybe someone like Stowers surprises everyone but that's about it....and they're a team that's lucky to win 55-60 games this year, putting a severe dent in whatever plans there were for being competitive in 2023.  

Again, just for arguments sake.

What happens then?  

That would be a disaster, yes.   We are putting a lot of our eggs in the basket of our top prospects, no doubt.

But let's not pretend that some of the moves you would like to see, such as paying Chris Archer $3.5 million for a year, would change anything in terms of the long term competitiveness of the team.

Yes, if we had made a genuine effort to get Correa, that would have helped long term.   Maybe an EdRod or a Stroman to a multi year contract.   There are a lot of moves like that people have advocated that could have helped.   But finding someone a little better at third this year than Gutierrez, or some of the other moves that people are lamenting not making, wouldn't make a whit of difference in the longterm.

Last year we started bringing up pitchers from our system and the results were massively disappointing.   But they are not going to give up on that effort this year.   It looks to me like except for the 25-30 starts they hope to get out of Lyles, just about every start made by an Oriole pitcher this year will be made by someone who either started in our farm system or was traded for when they were still well below AAA and has "grown up" in our system, and who either was considered a decent prospect a few years ago or still is.    That is something to be celebrated, IMO, after years of watching us bring in other team's rejects and 28 year old minor league free agents and castoffs... the days of seeing 1/3 of our starts by guys like Eshelman, Straily, Wojciehowicz, Leblanc, Spenser Watkins, Aaron Brooks, Gabriel Ynoa, Nate Karns, Tommy Milone, and Chris Ellis are finally over.   Or reclamation projects like Matt Harvey, Felix Hernandez.

The first cohort of pitchers to reach the majors from our system -- Kremer, Zimmerman, Lowther, Akin -- produced disappointing results, to be sure.   And some of them will get a second chance this year, as will the guys following them who appear to have a better chance of succeeding.  

The progress is slow.   I am still very concerned, as I always have been, that ownership won't allow spending when it is merited, whether it was this past offseason or in the future.   I understand patience is wearing thin.   I said at the start of this I was willing to sit through some losing to "do it right" because I sat through 14 straight losing years doing it the "old way", which generally consisted of trying to improve the team each year without a coherennt long term plan.    So I've had a lot of patience, and another 100 loss or even 90 loss season will certainly try my patience.   But if you look at who played for this team in 2019, 2020, and 2021, there has been steady progress, each year there have been fewer garbage-heap guys and non-prospects and rejects from other teams.   They aren't all gone yet, but this year will be better than last year and last year was better than the year before which was better than the year before that.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, SteveA said:

That would be a disaster, yes.   We are putting a lot of our eggs in the basket of our top prospects, no doubt.

But let's not pretend that some of the moves you would like to see, such as paying Chris Archer $3.5 million for a year, would change anything in terms of the long term competitiveness of the team.

Yes, if we had made a genuine effort to get Correa, that would have helped long term.   Maybe an EdRod or a Stroman to a multi year contract.   There are a lot of moves like that people have advocated that could have helped.   But finding someone a little better at third this year than Gutierrez, or some of the other moves that people are lamenting not making, wouldn't make a whit of difference in the longterm.

Last year we started bringing up pitchers from our system and the results were massively disappointing.   But they are not going to give up on that effort this year.   It looks to me like except for the 25-30 starts they hope to get out of Lyles, just about every start made by an Oriole pitcher this year will be made by someone who either started in our farm system or was traded for when they were still well below AAA and has "grown up" in our system, and who either was considered a decent prospect a few years ago or still is.    That is something to be celebrated, IMO, after years of watching us bring in other team's rejects and 28 year old minor league free agents and castoffs... the days of seeing 1/3 of our starts by guys like Eshelman, Straily, Wojciehowicz, Leblanc, Spenser Watkins, Aaron Brooks, Gabriel Ynoa, Nate Karns, Tommy Milone, and Chris Ellis are finally over.   Or reclamation projects like Matt Harvey, Felix Hernandez.

The first cohort of pitchers to reach the majors from our system -- Kremer, Zimmerman, Lowther, Akin -- produced disappointing results, to be sure.   And some of them will get a second chance this year, as will the guys following them who appear to have a better chance of succeeding.  

The progress is slow.   I am still very concerned, as I always have been, that ownership won't allow spending when it is merited, whether it was this past offseason or in the future.   I understand patience is wearing thin.   I said at the start of this I was willing to sit through some losing to "do it right" because I sat through 14 straight losing years doing it the "old way", which generally consisted of trying to improve the team each year without a coherennt long term plan.    So I've had a lot of patience, and another 100 loss or even 90 loss season will certainly try my patience.   But if you look at who played for this team in 2019, 2020, and 2021, there has been steady progress, each year there have been fewer garbage-heap guys and non-prospects and rejects from other teams.   They aren't all gone yet, but this year will be better than last year and last year was better than the year before which was better than the year before that.

Oh I've long given up on a Correa type and am pining for a 3.5 to Archer.   Like, bread crumbs would be nice.  I still think we have a smattering of Milone, Wojo, Brooks types this year, though. 

Yep, all the eggs are certainly in one basket.  Let's hope it works.  

[Ohfan67]

39 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Just for arguments sake, let's say everything they're doing right now is a tremendous backfire.  Rutschman is Matt Weiters (good, but not amazing), Rodriguez and Hall get hurt/underperform and the rest of our pitching prospects aren't great.  Maybe someone like Stowers surprises everyone but that's about it....and they're a team that's lucky to win 55-60 games this year, putting a severe dent in whatever plans there were for being competitive in 2023.  

Again, just for arguments sake.

What happens then?  

I think Elias doesn't really care about 2023. I am not defending that viewpoint, but I think the slow, methodical approach that likely includes another high draft pick next year suggests to me that they are thinking there's another round or two of prospect promotion needed before the Orioles are really capable of being competitive. I am not arguing in favor of that approach, I am not trying to defend that approach, and I definitely don't want to endure more crappy baseball, but I think that's what they are thinking. These dates like 2023 are fan generated. I don't recall Elias stating dates. 

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Oh I've long given up on a Correa type and am pining for a 3.5 to Archer.   Like, bread crumbs would be nice.  I still think we have a smattering of Milone, Wojo, Brooks types this year, though. 

Yep, all the eggs are certainly in one basket.  Let's hope it works.  

I really don't think you will, unless you think Akin and Kremer have left the list of "homegrown prospects" and fallen to the reject /scrapheap pile.   They may be on their way there, but I won't put them in that category yet.   

The only starters in camp that I would still put in that category are Chris Ellis and Spenser Watkins, veteran minor league journeymen.   And I honestly don't think those guys will get more than a handful of starts for us this year, if any.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, SteveA said:

I really don't think you will, unless you think Akin and Kremer have left the list of "homegrown prospects" and fallen to the reject /scrapheap pile.   They may be on their way there, but I won't put them in that category yet.   

The only starters in camp that I would still put in that category are Chris Ellis and Spenser Watkins, veteran minor league journeymen.   And I honestly don't think those guys will get more than a handful of starts for us this year, if any.

i hope you're correct, but I'm seeing a severe innings limit on G-Rod and Hall.  I think Akin and Kremer would provide you the performance that any of the aforementioned would, so they're all kind of a wash.  

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Oh I'm fully prepared to be annoyed.  I just keep holding out hope that he'll come to his senses there.

Dominates High-A in 2019 and 3 years later still starting in AA.  Ridiculous.  

I’m not sure I’d call a 3.46 ERA and 1.326 WHIP at A+ “dominating.”   And he’s pitched 31 innings over two years due to Covid and his injuries.   None of it is ridiculous.   

The plan is to hold Hall back in extended spring training for a while to conserve his innings for later in the season, and there’s every expectation some of those innings will be in Baltimore.   Sounds like a good plan to me.