Cedric Mullins 2022

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

The argument is that Hays can shift to center with Stowers in left. But it makes the team markedly worse through the next three seasons when (in my opinion) they hope to compete. 

If Diaz and Kjerstad and Cowser were all knocking on the door it might be different, but I don't want to be one (more) Hays freak injury away from Ryan McKenna being the everyday centerfielder for a lengthy stretch of time.

Markedly worse?  So if they bring in starting pitching and that pitching is really good, we are worse?  
 

To say we would be wkrse with no knowledge of what we get, how they perform or what Mullins is over the next 2-3 years, not to mention what yoh do with his salary is extremely short sighted.

[MurphDogg]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Markedly worse?  So if they bring in starting pitching and that pitching is really good, we are worse?  
 

To say we would be wkrse with no knowledge of what we get, how they perform or what Mullins is over the next 2-3 years, not to mention what yoh do with his salary is extremely short sighted.

Sorry, I meant it would makes the outfield production markedly worse. Hence how it would be different if someone would be able to step into the outfield to replace Mullins' production. I already have Stowers stepping in for Mancini (albeit as a plus outfield defender rather than a break in case of glass outfielder) and Santander may well be traded as well.

If you can trade Mullins for Nestor Cortes, the team may not get any worse. I just don't think you can get enough value for Mullins.  Nobody here thinks anyone is untradeable but a 4+ WAR player with 3 years of team control is pretty valuable. What do you you think you can get for him?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Sorry, I meant it would makes the outfield production markedly worse.

If you can trade Mullins for Nestor Cortes, the team may not get any worse. I just don't think you can get enough value for Mullins.  Nobody here thinks anyone is untradeable but a 4+ WAR player with 3 years of team control is pretty valuable. What do you you think you can get for him?

Best case scenario is at least one top 100 starter that is close to or is ML ready..amongst other pieces.

Im not willing to say you don’t target positional talent or starting pitching that is a little further away but the target as the main guy back should be someone closer to the majors that is a starting pitcher.  Of course, you take the best deal you can get but that’s at least what I’m starting to look for and then see where things go.

Max Meyer or Eury Perez would be the type of guy I would want as the headliner.  I did want Pablo Lopez but, as expected, he is having a monster year and I’m guessing they aren’t moving him.

Sixto has a shoulder injury, so take him off the board as a piece.

[MurphDogg]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Best case scenario is at least one top 100 starter that is close to or is ML ready..amongst other pieces.

Im not willing to say you don’t target positional talent or starting pitching that is a little further away but the target as the main guy back should be someone closer to the majors that is a starting pitcher.  Of course, you take the best deal you can get but that’s at least what I’m starting to look for and then see where things go.

Max Meyer or Eury Perez would be the type of guy I would want as the headliner.  I did want Pablo Lopez but, as expected, he is having a monster year and I’m guessing they aren’t moving him.

Sixto has a shoulder injury, so take him off the board as a piece.

I would simply rather not create a hole in the outfield through a trade unless they are overwhelmed by an offer. Meyer is an interesting pitcher but the odds that any given minor league pitcher will be worth 10 rWAR over their career are not great, simply due to injury risk, so I am not wild about trading a productive Major League outfielder 1:1 for a pitcher. And given how highly thought of Meyer is, I would be surprised to get any decent additional prospects in a deal built around Mullins and Meyer.

I am fine going into next season with Grayson, Hall, Wells and a free agent signing (hopefully better than Lyles) penciled in as the top 4 and guys like Kremer, Zimmermann, Bradish, Kevin Smith, Drew Rom in the mix behind them with Means hopefully back for the second half of next year.

[RVAOsFan]

I have been torn on whether I think it makes sense to trade Mullins this summer but I think a couple points in this thread helped me make up my mind.  

He still has 3 years of control left and guys like Cowser, Kjerstad are still unknowns.  Next year at the deadline we should have a lot better idea what we have in outfield prospects and with still 2 years of control left Mullins should still have good value unless we think his production is going to tank.

I say hold on to him another year and then if everything aligns trade him for young starting pitching which I think we will need to acquire more of from somewhere to compete.

[MarCakes21]

53 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I have been torn on whether I think it makes sense to trade Mullins this summer but I think a couple points in this thread helped me make up my mind.  

He still has 3 years of control left and guys like Cowser, Kjerstad are still unknowns.  Next year at the deadline we should have a lot better idea what we have in outfield prospects and with still 2 years of control left Mullins should still have good value unless we think his production is going to tank.

I say hold on to him another year and then if everything aligns trade him for young starting pitching which I think we will need to acquire more of from somewhere to compete.

I'm leaning this way as well.  I think this year you trade Santander/Mancini for value and then you have another year to decide what Mullins is and what his future with this team is.  If you think you can resign him as a 4WAR player, then go for it.  If you think he has more future value to this team in a trade piece, then go for it.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I'm leaning this way as well.  I think this year you trade Santander/Mancini for value and then you have another year to decide what Mullins is and what his future with this team is.  If you think you can resign him as a 4WAR player, then go for it.  If you think he has more future value to this team in a trade piece, then go for it.

How much do you want to sign him for and for how long?

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How much do you want to sign him for and for how long?

10 years, at the major league minimum.   

More seriously, here’s a decent comp for you.  Back in 2019, the Blue Jays signed Randall Grichuk, then 27 and entering his Arb years, to a 5-year, $52 mm deal.  
Grichuk was coming off a 2.5 rWAR season and his career high was 3.1 rWAR.   Mullins has been better than that, so I think it would cost more than 5/$52 mm to sign Mullins.  Maybe 5/$60 mm?   I wouldn’t want to go more than 5 years unless options were involved.  

Do you think Mullins would sign for that?   Should the O’s offer it?
 

[Sports Guy]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

10 years, at the major league minimum.   

More seriously, here’s a decent comp for you.  Back in 2019, the Blue Jays signed Randall Grichuk, then 27 and entering his Arb years, to a 5-year, $52 mm deal.  
Grichuk was coming off a 2.5 rWAR season and his career high was 3.1 rWAR.   Mullins has been better than that, so I think it would cost more than 5/$52 mm to sign Mullins.  Maybe 5/$60 mm?   I wouldn’t want to go more than 5 years unless options were involved.  

Do you think Mullins would sign for that?   Should the O’s offer it?
 

So figure if all goes right, the next 3 years he makes something in the area of 25-30 million.  Maybe more if he has huge years like last year but just assume he’s a 3-4 WAR guy.  So yea, I could see him sign that.

No way in hell I’m offering that.  Mullins  is a speed guy and when he inevitably loses some of that speed and can’t cut it out in CF, his arm stops him from being a good COer.

Thats a contract that pays him into his 30s.  
 

This is why I would move him.  Now, I don’t disagree that waiting until next year could be the right play and gives us much more clarity on the situation.  
 

However, if a team is willing to offer a favorable package now, I don’t really see a reason to wait.

[Three Run Homer]

I'm not opposed to trading any of our outfielders (Hays, Santander or Mullins) if we can get a blue chip starting pitcher prospect back.  Terrin Vavra is playing CF in Norfolk and he looks like a prototype leadoff hitter--makes contact, hits for a high average, draws a lot of walks.  Both Vavra and Stowers are at the point where we will need to make room for them soon.   Elias' strategy is to focus amateur talent acquisition on position players, so he needs to be willing to trade good position players to get advanced high quality young pitchers.  

 

[Three Run Homer]

2 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I'm not opposed to trading any of our outfielders (Hays, Santander or Mullins) if we can get a blue chip starting pitcher prospect back.  Terrin Vavra is playing CF in Norfolk and he looks like a prototype leadoff hitter--makes contact, hits for a high average, draws a lot of walks.  Both Vavra and Stowers are at the point where we will need to make room for them soon.   Elias' strategy is to focus amateur talent acquisition on position players, so he needs to be willing to trade good position players to get advanced high quality young pitchers.  

 

I should have of course included Mancini in the above list.  And by "blue chip" I don't mean another Grayson Rodriguez--nobody is going to trade that unless an MVP candidate is coming back.  I mean someone like DL Hall--a prospect with outstanding stuff and a high ceiling but some issues (e.g. needs to improve his command or his third pitch).  Someone in a distinctly higher tier than all of the O's pitching prospects below GrayRod and Hall.    

[OriolesMagic83]

The O's have limited funds to extend players.  I don't know whether the O's will have a $100 million or $150 million payroll in the near future, but it won't be $250 million.  I think the O's need to extend one of Mullins/Hays and trade the other.  Maybe a 6 year deal.  Like the Adam Jones deal, but a little lighter on the cash. 

[Ridgway22]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

10 years, at the major league minimum.   

More seriously, here’s a decent comp for you.  Back in 2019, the Blue Jays signed Randall Grichuk, then 27 and entering his Arb years, to a 5-year, $52 mm deal.  
Grichuk was coming off a 2.5 rWAR season and his career high was 3.1 rWAR.   Mullins has been better than that, so I think it would cost more than 5/$52 mm to sign Mullins.  Maybe 5/$60 mm?   I wouldn’t want to go more than 5 years unless options were involved.  

Do you think Mullins would sign for that?   Should the O’s offer it?
 

You're the freakin' lawyer! You tell us what would be reasonable for each side! We're idiot fans trading strat-o-matic cards. Seriously, yes, I'd offer 5/60. Time to start dining at the adult table, where the wine has proper mouthfeel. Cedric for Meyer? Yeah, would have to consider that.

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, Ridgway22 said:

You're the freakin' lawyer! You tell us what would be reasonable for each side! We're idiot fans trading strat-o-matic cards. Seriously, yes, I'd offer 5/60. Time to start dining at the adult table, where the wine has proper mouthfeel. Cedric for Meyer? Yeah, would have to consider that.

I tend to agree with SG,  he’s a speed player and when he starts to slow down his arm makes him worthless. Do I think he can maintain into his early 30s ? It’s possible but not worth the gamble. Hays can play center, Stowers is ready for a regular role to show what he has, and you have Vavra. Plus Diaz is finally hitting .333 average with a .964 OPS in AAA

We could actually clear Santander, Mullins, and Mancini, and end up with a better OF

[Bahama O's Fan]

I think it's obvious that we cant/won't keep Mullins, Hays, Mancini and Santander all long-term. You don't want to lose anyone to free agency for nothing. Now it would be better to trade Mancini or Santander, but if the better deal is for Mullins, maybe you trade him and extend one or more of the others?