Cedric Mullins 2022

[deward]

51 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You think Mullins struggles against major league lefties, Cowser hit .189/.322/.254/.576 in 149 PAs against them this year across all three levels he played.

Cowser may be a platoon guy if he can't get that better next year in AAA.

Worth pointing out that Cowser slashed a respectable .278/.357/.361/.718 vs LHP in Bowie, with 10 strikeouts in 42 PA. His OPS vs LHP in Norfolk so far is .626, which isn't much lower than his .715 OPS vs RHP in AAA. His time in Aberdeen is what's dragging the overall numbers down, his OPS vs LHP there was .458, with nearly as many PA as AA/AAA combined. Not saying he can't stand to improve, but it did get better as he moved up.

Edited September 21, 2022 by deward

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, deward said:

Worth pointing out that Cowser slashed a respectable .278/.357/.361/.718 vs LHP in Bowie, with 10 strikeouts in 42 PA. His OPS vs LHP in Norfolk so far is .626, which isn't much lower than his .715 OPS vs RHP in AAA. His time in Aberdeen is what's dragging the overall numbers down, his OPS vs LHP there was .458, with nearly as many PA as AA/AAA combined. Not saying he can't stand to improve, but it did get better as he moved up.

Good to know. Where are you getting his splits at each level?

[Fiver6565]

I don't get the talk of trading Mullins (other than the standard 'offer you can't refuse', which I don't think coming).  There are several imminently replaceable position players we can trade - Santander, Mateo, Urias, Hays, maybe even Mountcastle - but Mullins is not one of them.  I like having a guy I can put in CF every night and know that I'm getting the kind of D that Mullins provides.  No one in the system can do that other than Phillips, and if you want to replace Mullins with Phillips, then I don't know what to tell you.  If you do that, then you better get one helluva trade return for Mullins, because if you think Mullins' offense dropped off this year, woo boy.

[deward]

42 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Good to know. Where are you getting his splits at each level?

Baseball Savant

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/colton-cowser-681297?stats=splits-r-hitting-milb&season=2022

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, deward said:

Baseball Savant

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/colton-cowser-681297?stats=splits-r-hitting-milb&season=2022

As much as I've used Baseball Savant, I didn't know they broke out splits by level, something Br, FG, Milb do not. Thanks, I learned something today useful to me. 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Mullins is underrated by some here, especially those who expected him to repeat his year last year. Mullins plays a plus defensive center field (only weakness now is coming in on balls) and offensively he's had a better 2nd half to make his overall numbers better.

Now, his hitting has fallen way off against lefties and that has dragged down his stats. He may end up an Al Bumbry type that needs to be platooned against lefties, but I think he still provides value.

Here's my biggest issue, I don't know who is replacement is at the big league level within the system. The best defensive CF I've seen this year is Jud Fabian, and he's barely in High-A after being drafted this year. We don't know how that bat plays against upper level pitching yet.

Colton Cowser had a weird year where he couldn't hit High-A or AAA pitching, but murdered AA pitching. Either way, he can't hit lefties either (.189/.322/.254/.576 in 149 PAs this year). I

I'm also not convinced he should play CF  and will be better in RF or LF (arm is certainly good enough for RF). 

So who replaces him? McKenna is who he is and that's a 4th/5th outfielder type you start occasionally against a soft tossing lefty. Hays? His defensive and offensive number trended in the wrong direction this year and he's slowed down. 

Hunter Haskin in AA? I'm not convinced he has the foot speed to play CF and is more of a leftfielder. Could he end up McKenna's replacement one day? Potentially.

Brett Phillips? Dude can play center field better than all of the guys above, but completely lost the ability to hit at the major league level. He'll be 29 next year but if the Orioles can get him on a minor league contract I'd stash him in AAA.

So in the end, there is no close replacement for Mullins so if you trade him, you better get a major league ready CF in return and who is going to give a CF in return for a CF?

Mullins is going to be CF next year but the team may want to upgrade the right-handed hitting side of his platoon though McKenna was respectable .259/.318/.448/.766 in 62 PAs against southpaws so far this year.    

 

 

Yeah, you keep having takes that I feel the need to cosign on.

We have no replacement CFer in the organization, unless you want Ryan McKenna or Brett Phillips to get a whole lot of at bats, and I don't think anybody wants that.

Maybe next summer Cowser has shown enough to stake that claim, but he hasn't done it yet.

[Jim'sKid26]

Mullins isn't a UFA until 2026.

2023 will be ARB 1 and he made $716,500 in 2022.

So what does he make next year? Who is his comp to estimate it? 

I think his value will be higher than his 2023 contract will reflect. I just don't see him traded in the off season. 

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Mullins is underrated by some here, especially those who expected him to repeat his year last year. Mullins plays a plus defensive center field (only weakness now is coming in on balls) and offensively he's had a better 2nd half to make his overall numbers better.

Now, his hitting has fallen way off against lefties and that has dragged down his stats. He may end up an Al Bumbry type that needs to be platooned against lefties, but I think he still provides value.

Here's my biggest issue, I don't know who is replacement is at the big league level within the system. The best defensive CF I've seen this year is Jud Fabian, and he's barely in High-A after being drafted this year. We don't know how that bat plays against upper level pitching yet.

Colton Cowser had a weird year where he couldn't hit High-A or AAA pitching, but murdered AA pitching. Either way, he can't hit lefties either (.189/.322/.254/.576 in 149 PAs this year). I

I'm also not convinced he should play CF  and will be better in RF or LF (arm is certainly good enough for RF). 

So who replaces him? McKenna is who he is and that's a 4th/5th outfielder type you start occasionally against a soft tossing lefty. Hays? His defensive and offensive number trended in the wrong direction this year and he's slowed down. 

Hunter Haskin in AA? I'm not convinced he has the foot speed to play CF and is more of a leftfielder. Could he end up McKenna's replacement one day? Potentially.

Brett Phillips? Dude can play center field better than all of the guys above, but completely lost the ability to hit at the major league level. He'll be 29 next year but if the Orioles can get him on a minor league contract I'd stash him in AAA.

So in the end, there is no close replacement for Mullins so if you trade him, you better get a major league ready CF in return and who is going to give a CF in return for a CF?

Mullins is going to be CF next year but the team may want to upgrade the right-handed hitting side of his platoon though McKenna was respectable .259/.318/.448/.766 in 62 PAs against southpaws so far this year.    

 

 

I'm kind of curious in general why people are down on Mullins.  I have a feeling it's because they see the .725 OPS and they assume "bad" because good players have .800 OPS.  But this year's offensive environment is so low that it's hard to get a handle on some of these unadjusted stats - only 36 players in both leagues have an OPS over .800.  On top of that the O's probably lose around 5% raw offensive output because they're in a mild to moderate pitchers park now.  His OPS+ and wRC+ are both above average, and he's on pace for over 3 wins in both BBRef and Fangraphs.  There aren't too many up and coming CFers that you can count on for that kind of production.

[Just Regular]

I wonder if his 2022 exit notes include readying himself for a middle of lineup spot next year.

On recent weaker teams, it was fine to write him in ink at the top.     Most of next year, Adley, Gunnar, Cowser and Santander are all Bats I probably want to take more PA than him, even against RHP.

Anytime a good player has a Status Role decrease to work through, it can be touchy.    Cedric Mullins is a good player.    At a slightly lower level, there's this same question with Jorge Mateo.

"Parking Lot Ced" doesn't have to be a leadoff hitter.    If LHP keep beating him bad and you need to do the Lowenstein stuff more, its just I think easier on the manager, player and clubhouse if he hits 6th.

My guess is it will be something with Cowser and he isn't here until May, but like Adley 2022 I look for Cowser to mostly be a regular next season.    Being a little fanciful and guessing him into the Opening Day lineup, just let it be something like

RF Cowser, C Adley, 1B Mountcastle*, 3B Gunnar, DH Santander, CF Mullins, LF Hays, 2B Westburg, SS Mateo

*I think I'm supposed to put "someone not the best" 3rd...heck maybe even Mullins 3rd is a Status Role decrease that doesn't even "seem" that bad.    I want to see Mullins 3rd against a RHP before the end of the year!

[maybenxtyr]

8 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I'm kind of curious in general why people are down on Mullins.  I have a feeling it's because they see the .725 OPS and they assume "bad" because good players have .800 OPS.  But this year's offensive environment is so low that it's hard to get a handle on some of these unadjusted stats - only 36 players in both leagues have an OPS over .800.  On top of that the O's probably lose around 5% raw offensive output because they're in a mild to moderate pitchers park now.  His OPS+ and wRC+ are both above average, and he's on pace for over 3 wins in both BBRef and Fangraphs.  There aren't too many up and coming CFers that you can count on for that kind of production.

10 of the top 25 play in the AL East.

 

That's not a hit against Mullins, but just  showing the discrepancy of good hitters in the division. Most of which are on teams we're chasing.

[deward]

30 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

As much as I've used Baseball Savant, I didn't know they broke out splits by level, something Br, FG, Milb do not. Thanks, I learned something today useful to me. 

Glad to be of service, I just figured that out today myself. I got curious how Cowser had done vs lefties in Bowie and figured someone had to have it.

[btdart20]

Maybe I missed something (I miss a lot so probable), but I don’t see people “down” on Mullins.  Or even that he’s replaceable.  I’ve seen people say he’s valuable enough to get a TOR arm in return.  And a top 10 CF at less than $1m has really good trade value so that’s a fair gambit in isolation.
 

However, I disagree with the assessment to trade Mullins for a TOR because it’s replacing one need with another (robbing Peter to pay Paul).  The further context is that we should have payroll flex and a nice pool of options.