Spencer Watkins 2022

[NCRaven]

36 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

People probably said as much about Jamie Moyer?..

Comparing any single player to an extreme outlier like Jamie Moyer puts you on thin ice.  There's a reason we remember Moyer.  What he was able to do is rare.  Suggesting some other guy with lesser underlying stuff can do it just because Moyer did it is not a strong argument.  Not just pointing at Tide here, lots of people make similar arguments.  I'm just not buying it.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Comparing any single player to an extreme outlier like Jamie Moyer puts you on thin ice.  There's a reason we remember Moyer.  What he was able to do is rare.  Suggesting some other guy with lesser underlying stuff can do it just because Moyer did it is not a strong argument.  Not just pointing at Tide here, lots of people make similar arguments.  I'm just not buying it.

I’m not saying he will….just that it’s possible even if not probable 

Also Greg Maddux FB was high 80s in his best years.

[NCRaven]

15 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m not saying he will….just that it’s possible even if not probable 

Also Greg Maddux FB was high 80s in his best years.

Damn if you didn’t do it again.   On purpose this time, I’m sure.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m not saying he will….just that it’s possible even if not probable 

Also Greg Maddux FB was high 80s in his best years.

How fastball velocity has been measured has changed over the years.  Maddux had a fastball that would be measured in the 90's today for much of his career.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

How fastball velocity has been measured has changed over the years.  Maddux had a fastball that would be measured in the 90's today for much of his career.

93 was his ceiling and he was less than 86 towards the end of gas career. 
 

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Pitching style. Maddux relied on his command, composure, and guile to outwit hitters. Though his fastball touched 93 mph in his early years, his velocity steadily declined throughout his career, and was never his principal focus as a pitcher. By the end of his career, his fastball averaged less than 86 mph.

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

93 was his ceiling and he was less than 86 towards the end of gas career. 
 

 

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/the-measure-of-a-fastball-has-changed-over-the-years/

[ChosenOne21]

15 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

People probably said as much about Jamie Moyer?..

Are you suggesting Watkins is Jamie Moyer? Odds have to be at least 1 in 10000 against that

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Are you suggesting Watkins is Jamie Moyer? Odds have to be at least 1 in 10000 against that

You could’ve answered your own question by reading my prior posts

 

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Me Too! Wondering if he’s for real. I assumed he was just a filler type guy.  I realize he beat the Rangers but he’s starting to string sone good outings.

and 

 

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   12 hours ago,  Roll Tide said: 

I’m not saying he will….just that it’s possible even if not probable 

Also Greg Maddux FB was high 80s in his best years.

 

[Tony-OH]

Watkins is an interesting case because he's added a plus pitch into his repertoire and is using that to make his middling fastball play up.

Now his fastball which is below average in velocity and movement is going to limit his overall effectiveness long term. His expected numbers numbers suggest he's been a little lucky, and they almost mirror his numbers from last year, but batter have had a lot less success than last year.

The changeup is the same below average offering, and he did make his curveball more or a 12-6 pitch and that has led it to play a little better to last year's version. 

But the big difference is the slider that has 5% more Vertical movement and 31% more horizontal movement than sliders at the same velocity. While the pitch doesn't get a ton of Whiff (24.4%) it's been hit the least hard of his pitches (32.3%).

Watkins doesn't miss many bats so he'll need to continue to need his command to keep his effectiveness. Right now he's doing a good job of mixing his pitches, limiting the use of his below average offerings, and limiting mistakes.

So to me, he's improved from last year when he really didn't have a go to offering to get batters out. If the slider continues to be that for him, who knows? I'd like to see him use the pitch even more and the fastball less and less. Basically become a true junkballer.

 

[LA2]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Watkins is an interesting case because he's added a plus pitch into his repertoire and is using that to make his middling fastball play up.

Now his fastball which is below average in velocity and movement is going to limit his overall effectiveness long term. His expected numbers numbers suggest he's been a little lucky, and they almost mirror his numbers from last year, but batter have had a lot less success than last year.

The changeup is the same below average offering, and he did make his curveball more or a 12-6 pitch and that has led it to play a little better to last year's version. 

But the big difference is the slider that has 5% more Vertical movement and 31% more horizontal movement than sliders at the same velocity. While the pitch doesn't get a ton of Whiff (24.4%) it's been hit the least hard of his pitches (32.3%).

Watkins doesn't miss many bats so he'll need to continue to need his command to keep his effectiveness. Right now he's doing a good job of mixing his pitches, limiting the use of his below average offerings, and limiting mistakes.

So to me, he's improved from last year when he really didn't have a go to offering to get batters out. If the slider continues to be that for him, who knows? I'd like to see him use the pitch even more and the fastball less and less. Basically become a true junkballer.

 

Interesting! is "average" in the chart league averages?

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Interesting! is "average" in the chart league averages?

Yes, lg AV for that pitch in a close velocity range.

[Just Regular]

20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

How fastball velocity has been measured has changed over the years.  Maddux had a fastball that would be measured in the 90's today for much of his career.

Topic-adjacent, I heard David Cone a couple weeks ago in booth saying he charted Gooden high enough with his pencil in the dugout in the mid-80's that he opined in today's terms he was sitting 102.     Last night Costas/Verducci calling Cole at Fenway related him touching 101.0 was his fastest pitch of the year.

11.16.1964 Dwight Gooden's 1983 minors line with 10 complete games and 191 innings just gets better every year.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Topic-adjacent, I heard David Cone a couple weeks ago in booth saying he charted Gooden high enough with his pencil in the dugout in the mid-80's that he opined in today's terms he was sitting 102.     Last night Costas/Verducci calling Cole at Fenway related him touching 101.0 was his fastest pitch of the year.

11.16.1964 Dwight Gooden's 1983 minors line with 10 complete games and 191 innings just gets better every year.

Guys are throwing harder but yea, a lot of the difference is how velocity is being measured.  Clemens in 1986 wasn't topping out at 95.

[LA2]

Very convenient time to compare Watkins' performance across the exact same innings pitched (54.67, as of end of the 2nd inning tonight) in 2021 vs. 2022.

HRs: 14 / 5

Hits: 74 / 54

BBs: 19 / 20

Ks: 35 / 33

WPs: 4 / 1

Earned Runs: 49 / 23

ERA: 8.07 (56 ERA+) / 3.79 (approx. 103) 

Tremendous improvement in results without an upsurge in Ks or decrease in walks. Avoiding the home run a huge factor. Would be fantastic if he can increase the number of innings per start (presently a little over 4.33 innings) while keeping the ERA in the low 4.00's the rest of the way.

Edited July 27, 2022 by LA2

[Jammer7]

My 11 year old ball player just told me that he thinks the hanging cutter is Watkins favorite pitch. He said he thinks Watkins has uncanny command of it, being that he seems to often put it in the middle of the plate. Smart kid.