Gunnar Henderson 2022

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Wander’s AAV Is less than 17 million. Do you know what type of value that will be through his prime years with inflation alone. If that is what Gunnar wants if I’m the O’s I’m running as fast as I can to him and Boras and saying yes sir here you go!

Again out payroll is insanely low right now this is the optimal time to get it done.

17-20 for him and even Adley ain’t bad plus the 36 we are already committed to. That’s less than 80 mil next year. Any & every ball club can afford that and then some.

You need to realize that the AAV of a free agent deal is not the same as the AAV of a contract that covers three pre-Arb years and three Arb years and then a few FA seasons.  And you have to factor in the risk that the player doesn’t turn out to be as good as expected, or has his career detailed by injuries before he even gets to his FA seasons.  The reason that deals signed very early in a player’s career are cheaper than deals signed by free agents is because they’re riskier for the club.  I’m not saying you don’t do them, I’m just saying that risk is a big factor in what a team should be willing to pay.  And from the player’s perspective, a long term deal eliminates a lot of downside risk and sets them up for life, even if it won’t yield as much money as going year-by-year and then signing a FA deal, if  everything goes well for the player health and performance-wise.  

[RZNJ]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's why the smart move was to sign him last year.

Everyone laughed but how nice would it be to be in year two of a ten year deal right now?

Someone laughed at you?  Who?  Who?

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

I'd be surprised if anyone disagreed with the concept. The cost might make a difference as would Gunnar's willingness.

I'm shocked you're surprised.   I absolutely advocated for signing Gunnar to a 10 year deal last season, when he was still in A ball.  Folks were not on board.

 

[7Mo]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm shocked you're surprised.   I absolutely advocated for signing Gunnar to a 10 year deal last season, when he was still in A ball.  Folks were not on board.

 

I'd imagine your post was something like "the smart thing to do would be to sign Gunnar to a long term deal now but ownership hasn't shown they'll spend the money."

I remember posts arguing about whether ownership will spend at the right time. But that's a different point. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm shocked you're surprised.   I absolutely advocated for signing Gunnar to a 10 year deal last season, when he was still in A ball.  Scot Boras was not on board.

 

What?   The devil is in the details.   Broad concepts are easy.

Edited September 3, 2022 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's why the smart move was to sign him last year.

Everyone laughed but how nice would it be to be in year two of a ten year deal right now?

Yep, that’s how it has worked out so far for Gunnar.  A year ago he was a guy who spent most of the year in low/hi A, struggled a bit in a short AA stint and was considered a top 50-100 prospect by most.   As it happens, he exploded this year and in hindsight it would be nice if we’d signed him last year.   (Not that I’m accusing you of hindsight; you certainly suggested this, though you never committed to any dollar figures.)

So who would you like to lock up this year?   And how much would you pay to do it?  Suggesting a long term deal is nice, but unless you specify some terms it doesn’t really have much meaning.  

[7Mo]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Someone laughed at you?  Who?  Who?

Not someone, the man said "everyone".

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, 7Mo said:

Not someone, the man said "everyone".

That covers most of the board, doesn't it?

They laughed at Isaac Newton!  They laughed at the Wright brothers!   They laughed at Copernicus!    All the geniuses get laughed at.  Now the chickens have come home to roost.

Edited September 3, 2022 by RZNJ

[joelala]

Popcorn time. 

[BRobinsonfan]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yep, that’s how it has worked out so far for Gunnar.  A year ago he was a guy who spent most of the year in low/hi A, struggled a bit in a short AA stint and was considered a top 50-100 prospect by most.   As it happens, he exploded this year and in hindsight it would be nice if we’d signed him last year.   (Not that I’m accusing you of hindsight; you certainly suggested this, though you never committed to any dollar figures.)

So who would you like to lock up this year?   And how much would you pay to do it?  Suggesting a long term deal is nice, but unless you specify some terms it doesn’t really have much meaning.  

This x1000

 

[joelala]

*Pun not intended

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, joelala said:

Popcorn time. 

Caramel, Cheddar, butter, or plain?   

[Bemorewins]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You need to realize that the AAV of a free agent deal is not the same as the AAV of a contract that covers three pre-Arb years and three Arb years and then a few FA seasons.  And you have to factor in the risk that the player doesn’t turn out to be as good as expected, or has his career detailed by injuries before he even gets to his FA seasons.  The reason that deals signed very early in a player’s career are cheaper than deals signed by free agents is because they’re riskier for the club.  I’m not saying you don’t do them, I’m just saying that risk is a big factor in what a team should be willing to pay.  And from the player’s perspective, a long term deal eliminates a lot of downside risk and sets them up for life, even if it won’t yield as much money as going year-by-year and then signing a FA deal, if  everything goes well for the player health and performance-wise.  

I understand that all of these factors must be carefully considered. I guess I’m coming at it from the perspective of being proactive (like the best run clubs are) instead of being reactive like we have been in the past. 
 

IMO - being reactive is what had us loosing a great player like Manny and then having to sell off everyone under the gun for like 30 cents on the dollar and going through 4 of the worst years we could possibly go through. I think you and almost all other O’s fans would agree that I NEVER want to do that again.

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

What?   The devil is in the details.   Broad concepts are easy.

The Devil is in the details you say?

 

What about this detail?

Check the date on the tweet.

DETAILS.

 

[Can_of_corn]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yep, that’s how it has worked out so far for Gunnar.  A year ago he was a guy who spent most of the year in low/hi A, struggled a bit in a short AA stint and was considered a top 50-100 prospect by most.   As it happens, he exploded this year and in hindsight it would be nice if we’d signed him last year.   (Not that I’m accusing you of hindsight; you certainly suggested this, though you never committed to any dollar figures.)

So who would you like to lock up this year?   And how much would you pay to do it?  Suggesting a long term deal is nice, but unless you specify some terms it doesn’t really have much meaning.  

I got no one this year.  It isn't a move I would suggest every year.

And you also know I never give numbers.  In this case you wouldn't even have a comp to work off of.  No idea what Gunnar and his agent at the time would have required.  I stated at the time that I wouldn't have handed him a blank check.