Gunnar Henderson 2022

[scarey1999]

9 minutes ago, seak05 said:

It’s a little nitpicky, but since his promotion to triple a his gb% has increased to almost 50%, and his k% is almost double his bb% (23-13)

I’m in camp bring him up mid-august, but there are a couple things I could see them wanting him to improve 

Good call. That’s probably just Gunnar adjusting to the league and vice versa, but get him up to OPACY in a few weeks to get him some major league at bats and experience so both he and the Orioles can see how he does and can adjust accordingly going into the off-season to prepare for next season’s arrival in full. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

At what point do we see an organization call up of these guys?  Benscome to Aberdeen, Hernaiz to AA, Ortiz to AAA and Henderson to the majors?

I suspect they want to stagger the Adley/Gunnar payday by at least a year.  So, I think they'll manage the clock with Henderson (i.e. we'll see him a couple of weeks into 2023) UNLESS we hold at WC spot before 8/31 (the playoff roster deadline).  

Any of those other guys could be promoted whenever.  My guess is whenever Holliday/Young is assigned to Aberdeen (though that's not 'required' because Aberdeen has Burns too).  They may want to see a little longer sample for Ortiz.  If they promote Ortiz and not Henderson, then the org SS guys will wash out.

[geschinger]

6 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I suspect they want to stagger the Adley/Gunnar payday by at least a year.  So, I think they'll manage the clock with Henderson (i.e. we'll see him a couple of weeks into 2023) UNLESS we hold at WC spot before 8/31 (the playoff roster deadline).  

If Adley continues to play as well as he has it's going to be staggered in any case.  Adley has a great chance of earning credit for a full year of service time this year if voters value actual value over HR/RBI numbers.  

[btdart20]

40 minutes ago, geschinger said:

If Adley continues to play as well as he has it's going to be staggered in any case.  Adley has a great chance of earning credit for a full year of service time this year if voters value actual value over HR/RBI numbers.  

Yeah, you're right.  The ROY voting adds a layer to the onion...  For service time, it's the top 2 ROY vote getters.

AR is on the outside looking in at this point, IMO.  Rodriguez, Pena, and Witt are ahead of AR.  The rest aren't really that close at this point either.  But that could change before 8/31 and factor in the decision.  Honestly, I don't think it will though.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Yeah, you're right.  The ROY voting adds a layer to the onion...  For service time, it's the top 2 ROY vote getters.

AR is on the outside looking in at this point, IMO.  Rodriguez, Pena, and Witt are ahead of AR.  The rest aren't really that close at this point either.  But that could change before 8/31 and factor in the decision.  Honestly, I don't think it will though.

How is Witt ahead of Adley?

[geschinger]

9 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Yeah, you're right.  The ROY voting adds a layer to the onion...  For service time, it's the top 2 ROY vote getters.

AR is on the outside looking in at this point, IMO.  Rodriguez, Pena, and Witt are ahead of AR.  The rest aren't really that close at this point either.  But that could change before 8/31 and factor in the decision.  Honestly, I don't think it will though.

Adley should be way ahead of Witt unless only looking at HR/RBI etc...

Look at Pena offensively from June onwards compared to Adley in the last 45 days or so.  Passing Pena is plausible if not probable.

[owknows]

I keep coming to this thread expecting to read about Gunnar Henderson.

Fool that I am.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

How is Witt ahead of Adley?

51/14/51/20/.252 (Witt) looks better than 34/5/19/1/.255 (Adley).  Yes, digging under the hood, I like Adley better.  But Witt passes the eye candy test.

But here are the links I looked at.  Both have Witt ahead of Adley.  The second one even had Joe Ryan ahead of Adley.

2022 MLB AL & NL Rookie of the Year Odds Tracker (sportsbettingdime.com)

2022 Rookie of the Year Odds for the NL & AL - MLB ROY Odds Including Spencer Strider. (covers.com)

[Tony-OH]

I think Elias has a decision to make here. Do you go for the Wild Card this year or is everything going to be about controllability and pay days long term?

If you want to go for the Wild Card this year, I think Henderson needs to come up and get plopped down at 3B for the rest of the year. Urias goes to 2B and Odor goes to the bench with a demotion of Nevin back to AAA or Odor is DFA'd (doubtful). Nevin could also be DFA'd easily to make room for Henderson.

Now, if Elias does not want Henderson coming up this year do to clock issues, then we probably won't see him until a week or two after the season starts next year.

This will be a good test to see what mode Elias is working from as well as what financial concerns does he have long term about these guys.

 

[waroriole]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Elias has a decision to make here. Do you go for the Wild Card this year or is everything going to be about controllability and pay days long term?

If you want to go for the Wild Card this year, I think Henderson needs to come up and get plopped down at 3B for the rest of the year. Urias goes to 2B and Odor goes to the bench with a demotion of Nevin back to AAA or Odor is DFA'd (doubtful). Nevin could also be DFA'd easily to make room for Henderson.

Now, if Elias does not want Henderson coming up this year do to clock issues, then we probably won't see him until a week or two after the season starts next year.

This will be a good test to see what mode Elias is working from as well as what financial concerns does he have long term about these guys.

 

I think we see Gunnar in late August so he can retain his rookie status next year and net is a draft pick. 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

I think we see Gunnar in late August so he can retain his rookie status next year and net is a draft pick. 

 

I think this is one of the considerations... it's either an extra year of control... or ROY next year...

but they only have to keep him under 130 AB's right?

He already retains rookie status next year by calendar time. It's only AB's that matter at this point I think.

[waroriole]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

 

I think this is one of the considerations... it's either an extra year of control... or ROY next year...

but they only have to keep him under 130 AB's right?

He already retains rookie status next year by calendar time. It's only AB's that matter at this point I think.

More than 130 ABs, 50 IP, or 45 days on an active regular season roster would cause you to lose your rookie status.
 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/rookie-eligibility

[owknows]

Just now, waroriole said:

More than 130 ABs, 50 IP, or 45 days on an active regular season roster would cause you to lose your rookie status.
 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/rookie-eligibility

Pretty sure it's 45 days before Sept 1st.

[geschinger]

5 minutes ago, waroriole said:

More than 130 ABs, 50 IP, or 45 days on an active regular season roster would cause you to lose your rookie status.
 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/rookie-eligibility

Yep.  If they aren't going to play service time games with him they should bring him up around August 22 or so and get him as close to 130 ABs as possible w/o exceeding that.

Edited August 4, 2022 by geschinger

[Just Regular]

Tomorrow Gunnar would be fun.   It would really only be about the hope marginal days 45-65 give him a relevant bit of extra expertise for October.    And we want/need his help competing with Toronto next week.

I think we will see Gunnar not long after the 44 days in a few weeks.    From there I don't think there is any impact on 2023-2028 being his 6 years, and the decimal .17 for one month this September makes him a stronger 2023 RoY candidate, and the 2023 Orioles a team with fewer adjusting to MLB pitching taxes to pay.

It will be some BS if he isn't until 40 games into 2023 like Adley as that is kneecapping a relevant team.   I'm zealous enough about Month1 for any Bat (even Adley!) it'll be aggravating if they don't let him start in September.

I could see restraining Westburg or Stowers - that level of player you probably aren't even forecasting paying their Arb3 unless they beat their mid-case forecast.