Elias' goal: Twins HG lineup

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I imagine the average age for international guys is lower. 
 

I also think it’s fair to say the guys we got initially were not very highly touted and he was doing a lot of that to simply fill out rosters.  Those 17 years olds are now 20 and sneaking into the lower part of the system.  And out of that group we are starting to see a couple emerge as potential future prospects.  
 

Now that we are “established” in the intl market it will be interesting to see how quickly the top end int prospects move through the system. Being an Os fan I have no prior experience with that. 

But as an O's fan we have plenty of experience with low expectations.

Which is something I think we overdo.

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But as an O's fan we have plenty of experience with low expectations.

Which is something I think we overdo.

I mean I was 3 when they last won the WS so w/o low expectations I’d lose my mind.  
 

You got me thinking on how long it typically takes intl players.  It’s gonna be very different for someone coming out of DR vs. Japan, obviously.  Quick search couldn’t find any articles covering the topic.  But I looked up a few Dominican players out of curiosity. 

Juan Soto 3 years from signing to mlb debut

Wander Franco 4 years 

Julio Rodriguez 5 years

Anthony Santander 6 years (rule 5 expedited)

I imagine 3 & 4 years to MLB are outliers and most guys make it up in 5-7 years depending on skill level.   

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I mean I was 3 when they last won the WS so w/o low expectations I’d lose my mind.  
 

You got me thinking on how long it typically takes intl players.  It’s gonna be very different for someone coming out of DR vs. Japan, obviously.  Quick search couldn’t find any articles covering the topic.  But I looked up a few Dominican players out of curiosity. 

Juan Soto 3 years from signing to mlb debut

Wander Franco 4 years 

Julio Rodriguez 5 years

Anthony Santander 6 years (rule 5 expedited)

I imagine 3 & 4 years to MLB are outliers and most guys make it up in 5-7 years depending on skill level.   

 

 

 

Sure and if the average guy make it in 5-7 years we should start seeing folks before then.

[seak05]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure and if the average guy make it in 5-7 years we should start seeing folks before then.

I think you're using to narrow a definition of "average". I think it's probably more fair to say exceptional players make it in 3-4 years (Soto and Franco are both supreme talents), anyone else - even "above average" is 5-7. I don't think the Orioles have signed any Franco or Soto's yet.

And I would add that the average international FA signing doesn't even make the big leagues at all 

Edited May 7, 2022 by seak05

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, seak05 said:

I think you're using to narrow a definition of "average". I think it's probably more fair to say exceptional players make it in 3-4 years (Soto and Franco are both supreme talents), anyone else - even "above average" is 5-7. I don't think the Orioles have signed any Franco or Soto's yet 

I'm not saying we should be seeing someone now.  Seven years was the number tossed out originally, not five to seven.  I think it is fair to expect returns at the ML level earlier than seven years.

For some reason a lot of the fan base has bought into this extremely slow timetable when it doesn't take other teams near this long to start showing results.

This isn't just about the signees, how many intentional players did Elias trade for his first year here?  That's a lot of darts to be throwing at the wall.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, seak05 said:

 

Realistically, you're going to have to go get a player or two through free agency (and spend to keep some of your own players "home") for your lineup. But the Orioles aren't going to spend 200m, so most of the lineup will come from the organization. Twins didn't spend that money in free agnecy until they already had a lot of pieces in place. 

They gave Cruz a nice contract in 2019.

[emmett16]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not saying we should be seeing someone now.  Seven years was the number tossed out originally, not five to seven.  I think it is fair to expect returns at the ML level earlier than seven years.

For some reason a lot of the fan base has bought into this extremely slow timetable when it doesn't take other teams near this long to start showing results.

This isn't just about the signees, how many intentional players did Elias trade for his first year here?  That's a lot of darts to be throwing at the wall.

All of the players he acquired were 17 years old.  They are 20,21 now and likely 3 years away.   MLB avg. debut is 24.2 years (throughout the 2000’s).  I’d say it’s unrealistic to expect 17 year old Dominican players to be in the league faster than 7 years.   7 years puts them at MLB average assuming they were signed at 17.   Players that beat that average are exceptional talents.  I don’t think anyone thought  we brought in any exceptional talent.   I believe the consensus was that there were some “interesting” players but most were to simply build out a roster.  The guys he signed in first year and guys he traded for first year were of the average mold and I’d expect them to take 7 years.  The guys that he brings in this year should have some higher-end talent and I would hope it will take those players 5-6 years to appear in MLB with fingers crossed we get an outlier that can make it in 4.  

[seak05]

47 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not saying we should be seeing someone now.  Seven years was the number tossed out originally, not five to seven.  I think it is fair to expect returns at the ML level earlier than seven years.

For some reason a lot of the fan base has bought into this extremely slow timetable when it doesn't take other teams near this long to start showing results.

This isn't just about the signees, how many intentional players did Elias trade for his first year here?  That's a lot of darts to be throwing at the wall.

I think dart throwing is the appropriate term. None of the guys we were able to sign or trade for were looked upon as real top players, or they wouldn't have been available. Now the last two classes? Yeah, I expect better...but don't think we'll see them in the majors for another 4+ years. They're 17 now. 

Given that it takes most players who even make the major leagues a few years to work through the minors, and that building through the draft/international signings requires a few years of drafts/signings...I think 5 years was always the realistic number in terms of the club becoming competitive. My expectations for this year were to see some of the young players establish themselves to be part of a contending/competitive team next year. If the Orioles are looking at another lost season next year, I will be frustrated. 

Edited May 7, 2022 by seak05

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

All of the players he acquired were 17 years old.  They are 20,21 now and likely 3 years away.   MLB avg. debut is 24.2 years (throughout the 2000’s).  I’d say it’s unrealistic to expect 17 year old Dominican players to be in the league faster than 7 years.   7 years puts them at MLB average assuming they were signed at 17.   Players that beat that average are exceptional talents.  I don’t think anyone thought  we brought in any exceptional talent.   I believe the consensus was that there were some “interesting” players but most were to simply build out a roster.  The guys he signed in first year and guys he traded for first year were of the average mold and I’d expect them to take 7 years.  The guys that he brings in this year should have some higher-end talent and I would hope it will take those players 5-6 years to appear in MLB with fingers crossed we get an outlier that can make it in 4.  

A couple things that have already been mentioned.

1. The average age is probably skewed by college players not entering professional baseball until they are already in their 20's.
2. AVERAGE.  You can't honestly believe that everyone that beats the average age is an "exceptional talent".  Even if you would expect them to take seven years, the law of averages would have at least some of them arriving faster.  If you have six guys that pan out to the degree they make the majors all six aren't going to be ready in year seven even if that ends up being the average.

Schoop was in the majors to stay at 22.  While he is certainly an exceptionally talented baseball player, as a ML player he's been pretty average.

The O's system that developed him wasn't particularly well regarded and he wasn't a big name signing.

Should we expect less of Elias and his team?

[btdart20]

It's easy to just focus on the stars that come up (Soto, Wander, etc.) but there are a ton of average/below average players who debut much older.  Nelson Cruz was 25.  Israel Alcantara was 27.  Winston Abreu was 29.

Players by birthplace: Dominican Republic Baseball Stats and Info | Baseball-Reference.com

I just pulled DR birthplace.  No clue if any were part of the regular draft or if they're all from the international draft/FA.

My guess is international guys debut at the same age as high schoolers.

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Given that it takes most players who even make the major leagues a few years to work through the minors, and that building through the draft/international signings requires a few years of drafts/signings...I think 5 years was always the realistic number in terms of the club becoming competitive. My expectations for this year were to see some of the young players establish themselves to be part of a contending/competitive team next year. If the Orioles are looking at another lost season next year, I will be frustrated. 

People keep saying things like that.  Then it's a year later and folks are saying the same thing.

 

[emmett16]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A couple things that have already been mentioned.

1. The average age is probably skewed by college players not entering professional baseball until they are already in their 20's.
2. AVERAGE.  You can't honestly believe that everyone that beats the average age is an "exceptional talent".  Even if you would expect them to take seven years, the law of averages would have at least some of them arriving faster.  If you have six guys that pan out to the degree they make the majors all six aren't going to be ready in year seven even if that ends up being the average.

Schoop was in the majors to stay at 22.  While he is certainly an exceptionally talented baseball player, as a ML player he's been pretty average.

The O's system that developed him wasn't particularly well regarded and he wasn't a big name signing.

Should we expect less of Elias and his team?

1- I think I remember Frobby posting some heavy researched material on avg. mlb debut ages and that it has been darn near the same age for almost a century.  Sure, college players are older as well as players that come from other professional leagues(Cuba & Japan). 

2- By average player I mean a player that advances one level each year.  I think if you beat that trajectory you are an exceptional talent.  It’s incredibly hard to make It to MLB and harder to stay there.  If you make it up before avg. of 24.2 years then in my opinion you are an incredible talent.  Many incredible talents turn out to be average or below average major league players.
 

I’m not an Elias apologist and think that everything he does is fantastic.   I agree with a lot of people there are/were definitely avenues that could have been taken to expedite the turnaround.  I don’t know what more they could do on the international front, though.    I would imagine after ~5 years (MacPhails/Duquette tenure) we should see one Schoop Type player come out of nowhere.  However,  I strongly expect that after 7 years we should have impact international players at every level of the org because of the systems that were put in place.  If the system doesn’t produce anything, then yea - Elias is a gigantic failure.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

1- I think I remember Frobby posting some heavy researched material on avg. mlb debut ages and that it has been darn near the same age for almost a century.  Sure, college players are older as well as players that come from other professional leagues(Cuba & Japan). 

2- By average player I mean a player that advances one level each year.  I think if you beat that trajectory you are an exceptional talent.  It’s incredibly hard to make It to MLB and harder to stay there.  If you make it up before avg. of 24.2 years then in my opinion you are an incredible talent.  Many incredible talents turn out to be average or below average major league players.
 

I’m not an Elias apologist and think that everything he does is fantastic.   I agree with a lot of people there are/were definitely avenues that could have been taken to expedite the turnaround.  I don’t know what more they could do on the international front, though.    I would imagine after ~5 years (MacPhails/Duquette tenure) we should see one Schoop Type player come out of nowhere.  However,  I strongly expect that after 7 years we should have impact international players at every level of the org because of the systems that were put in place.  If the system doesn’t produce anything, then yea - Elias is a gigantic failure.

Keep in mind MacPhail/Duquette produced Schoop and Eduardo Rodriguez (debuted at 22) as ML regulars.

[emmett16]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Keep in mind MacPhail/Duquette produced Schoop and Eduardo Rodriguez (debuted at 22) as ML regulars.

To date this regime hasn’t produced any intl players of note at the major league level.  If Bautista turns out to be a keeper, I suppose he goes to Duquette’s tally as well.  I bet there may be 1 or 2 more if we looked closely.  This is Elias’ third year with one being covid.  I expect after 5 non-covid years he and Perez will(and should) have more than the 3 or 4 the previous group brought in.  If not it’s a failure.  We were told they were making it a focus and have more funds/backing than previous regimes.  If we keep getting Cesar Prieto + level talent on a regular basis, I think they will easily beat the previous regime. 

[Orioles0615]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

People keep saying things like that.  Then it's a year later and folks are saying the same thing.

 

Standard business operations.. 2 years away from being 2 years away.