WAR, Witt vs AR

[ArtVanDelay]

2 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

As I think about how Wieters and Machado came up together in the same year, but look at them now, one is finished and the other is still slugging it out, it made me wonder if picking catchers over other positions is just not "efficient". 

What?  Wieters debuted over 3 years before Manny. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

As I think about how Wieters and Machado came up together in the same year, but look at them now, one is finished and the other is still slugging it out, it made me wonder if picking catchers over other positions is just not "efficient". 

They got rid of the reserve clause.

If a team only controls a player for 6-7 seasons it doesn't matter how far the career extends past that.

[webbrick2010]

Even if they had equivalent offensive WAR, and I think Witt will be a much better hitter than Adley, then defensively 150+ games at 3B/SS will easily trump 125 games at catcher and 25 games at DH for defensive WAR

A catcher at 1-1 was a mistake

[sportsfan8703]

It’s going to be Witt, but an offensive Catcher is a lot harder to find. AR has the “it” factor.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

As I think about how Wieters and Machado came up together in the same year, but look at them now, one is finished and the other is still slugging it out, it made me wonder if picking catchers over other positions is just not "efficient". 

If the drafting team had control of the player for longer than 6-7 years, I might agree with you.  But they don’t.   And, Manny is 6 years younger than Wieters; he came up three years later.   And finally, he’s just a much better player.   Even in his prime Wieters was nowhere near the player Manny is. 

[Sports Guy]

Witt

[Bahama O's Fan]

Sorry, for some reason I thought Wieters and Machado were similar in age. Definitely, I was wrong.  Guess I had a brain fart. It sucks that neither were able to play longer for the O's.

[TommyPickles]

Just looked through the Top 10 WAR leaders in MLB over each of the past few years. There were a ton of shortstops and thirdbasemen. There weren't any catchers. 

WAR is not kind to catchers, DH's, or firstbasemen.

Perhaps a fairer question would be who is more likely to be a top 3 player at their position (by WAR) over the next 10 years?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, TommyPickles said:

Just looked through the Top 10 WAR leaders in MLB over the past few years. There were a ton of shortstops and thirdbasemen. There weren't any catchers. 

WAR is not kind to catchers, DH's, or firstbasemen.

Perhaps a fairer question would be who is more likely to be a top 3 player at their position (by WAR) over the next 10 years?

Or we just don't currently have any MVP caliber Catchers playing right now.

For instance, fWAR (which includes framing) has Posey with five seasons of a WAR greater than 6.5.

There is an ebb and flow to which positions are the strongest.

[Moose Milligan]

Witt.  Being younger helps immensely.

I think we're going to have to see how special AR's bat is before he's moved off catcher to prolong his career.  I agree with @Can_of_corn, him being a rookie at age 24 hurts his chances to accumulate any kind of significant stats.  

[jdwilde1]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

Even if they had equivalent offensive WAR, and I think Witt will be a much better hitter than Adley, then defensively 150+ games at 3B/SS will easily trump 125 games at catcher and 25 games at DH for defensive WAR

A catcher at 1-1 was a mistake

The positional adjustment is pretty much a wash since catching has the greatest positional adjustment.  Using Fangraphs, Catching is +12.5, SS is +7.5, 3B is +2.5, DH is -17.5, and 1B -12.5. Catching 125 and DHing 25 is about a 7 run net positive positional adjustment (6.95).  Playing SS for 150 is also about a 7 run net positive (6.94). If Witt DHs some or plays 3B the positional adjustment tilts in favor of Adley.  Regardless, they both play premium positions. So, its really about how well they hit, field, and run.  Another thing to keep in mind is that there are a lot more Shortstops and third baseman who excel offensively than there are catchers.  

[TommyPickles]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Or we just don't currently have any MVP caliber Catchers playing right now.

For instance, fWAR (which includes framing) has Posey with five seasons of a WAR greater than 6.5.

There is an ebb and flow to which positions are the strongest.

I think that is true, to an extent. But if you look at the all time leaderboards, catchers do seem to get lower WAR totals.

All time, there are 15 short stops with a career WAR over 60.

There are 2 catchers.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, TommyPickles said:

I think that is true, to an extent. But if you look at the all time leaderboards, catchers do seem to get lower WAR totals.

All time, there are 15 short stops with a career WAR over 60.

There are 2 catchers.

 

Sure, I was talking about yearly totals not career totals.

No doubt star shortstops tend to have longer careers in the majors than catchers.

[TommyPickles]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, I was talking about yearly totals not career totals.

No doubt star shortstops tend to have longer careers in the majors than catchers.

That's a good point. I didn't think about the shorter careers catchers have. 

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

That's a good point. I didn't think about the shorter careers catchers have. 

And, they play fewer games per season.

Can_of_corn raises an interesting point about this being a down time for catchers.  Hopefully Adley’s about to reverse that trend.   Watching him for a few days*, he doesn’t look like Superman yet, but he definitely looks like he belongs and isn’t intimidated.   

*Actually, I should have said listening to his at bats and play on the radio for a few days, because I’m still quarantining in a room with no TV.  I feel like I’m back in middle school before most games were televised.