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Heston Kjerstad 2022

joelala

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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2 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is the context for that stat being taken into consideration? I say that because the AFL is notoriously a hitter's league. Maybe you want him to hack a bit to see what the swing can do. Afterall, there's an old saying in the Dominican Republic, "You have to swing like a man. A walk won't get you off the Island."

I don't see the current leadership telling players to hack away.

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Frobby
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From David Laurila’s Sunday blog: Justyn-Henry Malloy was a guest on Friday’s episode of FanGraphs Audio, and one of the subjects addressed by the 22-year-old Atlanta Braves outfield prospect was

Sports Guy
Sports Guy

2-4 tonight and his first homer.  He also walked.  BA is over 400 and his OPS is over 1000.

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Just Regular

I didn't jinx the streak as in garbage time top of 9th he lined a single over the shortstop's head. I hadn't noticed what RZNJ had about GB/FB ratio but last night was strikeout, crushed line dri

Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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5 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is the context for that stat being taken into consideration? I say that because the AFL is notoriously a hitter's league. Maybe you want him to hack a bit to see what the swing can do. Afterall, there's an old saying in the Dominican Republic, "You have to swing like a man. A walk won't get you off the Island."

Small sample size too. Like I said, yellow flag (not red). Something to keep an eye on. I'd rather just have him get reps according to his usual hitting approach.

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Jim'sKid26 Major Leaguer Rising Star

Jim'sKid26

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see the current leadership telling players to hack away.

So you are concerned about the low walk rate and think that he should have taken more pitches and worked the count harder? This is the Arizona Fall League where the average pitcher is barely a prospect.  I don't know whether Kjerstad swung and missed a lot or took a bunch of called strikes, but I hope he was hacking. The context is important, I think.

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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I think the AFL stats, good and bad, mean next to nothing.   The scouting reports and anecdotal evidence were mostly good.   He looks to be close to 100% physically.  He's shown power and more than one person said he's running well.  He'll be challenged at AA next year.   What he does there will tell us 10 times more than 20-25 games in the AFL.   The Orioles org is very analytical now.  I'm sure he has a good idea of his strengths and weaknesses heading into the offseason.  

I'm also sure that he'll be on a top notch conditioning program this offseason.   If there's any room to gain more strength and flexibility I'm sure he'll reach it.   Controlling the strike zone and pitch recognition will be tested 100% next year in AA.

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btdart20 Hangout Veteran Council

btdart20

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1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I don't know whether Kjerstad swung and missed a lot or took a bunch of called strikes, but I hope he was hacking. The context is important, I think.

@Jim'sKid26 agreed that the type of PAs matter.  Did he swing through good pitches in hitter counts?  Did he foul off/just miss on hitter counts?  Was he swinging through pitcher pitches?  Was he watching pitcher pitches?  It's one thing to assess based on the results (K%, OPS, HR), but it's another level to assess based on the inputs (approach like swing decisions/rates on pitches in the strike zone in hitter counts, especially with less than 2 strikes).  Results matter, but they'll shift Kjerstad moves up the food chain and faces better pitching.  But the approach/swing decisions are fully controlled by the hitter.  I would think the O's have stats on the type of PAs Kjerstad actually had in the AFL.  Yellow flags are appropriate.

He's healthy.  He posted quality counting stats as compared to the other quality hitting prospects in the AFL (I wonder what the average K% was in the AFL).  There were some positive scouting reports.  We have to feel good compared to where he was 9 months ago.  But AA will give a much better read on his developmental trajectory facing more talented pitching.

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Jim'sKid26 Major Leaguer Rising Star

Jim'sKid26

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55 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

@Jim'sKid26 agreed that the type of PAs matter.  Did he swing through good pitches in hitter counts?  Did he foul off/just miss on hitter counts?  Was he swinging through pitcher pitches?  Was he watching pitcher pitches?  It's one thing to assess based on the results (K%, OPS, HR), but it's another level to assess based on the inputs (approach like swing decisions/rates on pitches in the strike zone in hitter counts, especially with less than 2 strikes).  Results matter, but they'll shift Kjerstad moves up the food chain and faces better pitching.  But the approach/swing decisions are fully controlled by the hitter.  I would think the O's have stats on the type of PAs Kjerstad actually had in the AFL.  Yellow flags are appropriate.

He's healthy.  He posted quality counting stats as compared to the other quality hitting prospects in the AFL (I wonder what the average K% was in the AFL).  There were some positive scouting reports.  We have to feel good compared to where he was 9 months ago.  But AA will give a much better read on his developmental trajectory facing more talented pitching.

What I am getting at is the context of the experience. Chances are good that he had a bunch of good pitches to hit. That's why he hit 5 out of the park. I really doubt he faced pitchers who had good enough stuff to challenge him like he's likely to be challenged in AA and beyond. I personally would be very suspect of an AFL line that was .280/380/400. The plate discipline is good there but his calling card is power. In that context a little swing and miss is not a huge deal. 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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2 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So you are concerned about the low walk rate and think that he should have taken more pitches and worked the count harder? This is the Arizona Fall League where the average pitcher is barely a prospect.  I don't know whether Kjerstad swung and missed a lot or took a bunch of called strikes, but I hope he was hacking. The context is important, I think.

I didn't say that.

I said I don't think he was told to hack away.

 

His K rate worries more more than his walk rate in the AFL.

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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Eno Sarris shared some observations on the latest Rates and Barrels podcast...he saw him good.

Thought he looked more fluid compared to Jordan Walker, and specifically mentioned seeing him golf down and in pitches as when a backfoot slider attempt from RHP doesn't get in enough.

Both Kjerstad and Mayo for me open '23 about where Gunnar did...let's see how they do.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
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5 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So you are concerned about the low walk rate and think that he should have taken more pitches and worked the count harder? This is the Arizona Fall League where the average pitcher is barely a prospect.  I don't know whether Kjerstad swung and missed a lot or took a bunch of called strikes, but I hope he was hacking. The context is important, I think.

The AFL is something of a walker’s league, so the low walks are slightly concerning in that context.  

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CharmCityHokie Major Leaguer

CharmCityHokie

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1 hour ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Heston was named AFL MVP. 

That's awesome, good for him, I hope after all the sickness and pain, the work and sweat, that he can go home and sit on his couch for a few days and stare at that AFL trophy (I assume they get a trophy...) and say, "damn, I worked hard to get back to that". He deserves it, and hopefully its good recognition for extremely hard work and solid motivation to keep showing the baseball world he's back and he's here to crush baseballs. 

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justD Hangout Grand Counsel

justD

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2 hours ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Heston was named AFL MVP. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/heston-kjerstad-wins-2022-arizona-fall-league-mvp?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage

The No. 9 Orioles prospect led the AFL in hits (35), doubles (nine), extra-base hits (15) and total bases (61) and ranked in the top five in several other categories while batting .357/.385/.622.

"It’s an amazing honor," Kjerstad said. "There’s obviously a lot of great players out here that I’m playing against and are playing really good out here, but to be the one who’s awarded that is a really great honor."

The Fall League honored Kjerstad with its Joe Black MVP Award on Saturday, putting him in the same company as previous winners such as Nolan Arenado (2011), Kris Bryant (2013) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (2017).

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