Who do you want? Who do we take?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I agree with all of this, except that I think it’s what’s happening to Lee, because we have a lot more tape on him. Just like scouts had a lot more tape on Peyton.

Lee is a good hitter, who has hit at a high level in multiple places, and he will play a premium def position. (2b & 3b are equal to cf on the defensive spectrum). Maybe Jones has a touch more upside due to power potential, but Lee has already proven himself at a much higher level 

 

Lee isn’t worthy of the first pick for this franchise.  He wouldn’t be a bad pick.  That is Berry but he’s very clearly the wrong pick for what this team needs.

Im not saying Lee isn’t a good player.  He’s just the wrong pick.

[joelala]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think we also have to remember that these guys are going to get picked apart a lot.  
 

I didn’t want the Os to take Manny because I didn’t trust the team to develop him and there were questions about his bat.  Now, Manny isn’t a superstar offensive player but he’s obviously really good.

Obviously I was wrong about that but I also think the questions about his bat were overblown than what was being said by scouts.

I think in all sports this stuff gets talked about for so long and we just look for anything that can be an issue that people manufacture issues that aren’t there.

You also have the people that want to say stuff just so they can say I was right.  Plenty of people thought Ryan Leaf should have been picked over Peyton Manning.  They wanted to be the one that said, look at my outrageous thought and how right I was. I think the same type of thing is happening with Jones and this draft.

Sorry to derail, but have you seen what he was doing this season before his injury this weekend? And just his overall body of work?  Not sure how you can say he’s not a superstar offensive player. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, joelala said:

Sorry to derail, but have you seen what he was doing this season before his injury this weekend? And just his overall body of work?  Not sure how you can say he’s not a superstar offensive player. 

He has been this year (so far) but overall in his career, he hasn’t been.  He has been very good but he has fallen short of superstar offensive player imo.

The OPS (especially OBP) needs to be higher.

[joelala]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has been this year (so far) but overall in his career, he hasn’t been.  He has been very good but he has fallen short of superstar offensive player imo.

The OPS (especially OBP) needs to be higher.

Fair. So a star offensive player, not superstar. I suppose he gets his superstar label from the full package. And the massive contract.  

[seak05]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lee isn’t worthy of the first pick for this franchise.  He wouldn’t be a bad pick.  That is Berry but he’s very clearly the wrong pick for what this team needs.

Im not saying Lee isn’t a good player.  He’s just the wrong pick.

The likelihood is that Lee will end up a better player then Jones

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, seak05 said:

The likelihood is that Lee will end up a better player then Jones

Ehhh, I don’t really agree with that and I also don’t really care.  If Lee ends up being the better player I still think it was the wrong pick at the time it was made.

3 years worth of tanking shouldn’t end with you “playing it safe” and passing up on elite talent.  It’s just not logical.  

[Moose Milligan]

Want:  Druw Jones

Take:  Whoever gives this board a meltdown.  Kinda looking forward to it.

[seak05]

Moniak

justin Upton (actually played ss in high school, but drafters as of)

delmon young

josh hamilton

griffey jr 

shawn abner 

darryl strawberry 

Going back to 1980 these are high school of drafted 1:1. Jones is not considered the same level of prospect as Griffey jr. or Hamilton, but he is certainly better then Moniak. I’d be fine with them taking Jones, but there is a fairly good chance he turns into Bubba Starling. It just seems like you’re treating Jones more like a Griffey or Harper prospect, and the scouting reports/pre-draft analysis doesn’t match that. 

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Moniak

justin Upton (actually played ss in high school, but drafters as of)

delmon young

josh hamilton

griffey jr 

shawn abner 

darryl strawberry 

Going back to 1980 these are high school of drafted 1:1. Jones is not considered the same level of prospect as Griffey jr. or Hamilton, but he is certainly better then Moniak. I’d be fine with them taking Jones, but there is a fairly good chance he turns into Bubba Starling. It just seems like you’re treating Jones more like a Griffey or Harper prospect, and the scouting reports/pre-draft analysis doesn’t match that. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/33447494/why-druw-jones-best-mlb-draft-prospect-bryce-harper

 

Quote

The first questions I get asked about a draft class every year are the same: Who is the best player this year? Is he one of those Bryce Harper-level guys who could be the best prospect in a decade? The 2010 No. 1 overall pick is still a touchpoint for even casual baseball fans, the LeBron James of his sport. Like James, Harper was hyped very early (an SI cover as a high school junior baseball player) and has largely lived up to it (two MVPs, a $330 million deal, and two-thirds of a Hall of Fame-level WAR while still in his 20s).

When I was asked that question about the 2022 draft at this time last year, the answer was "maybe," but it was Florida prep CF Elijah Green who demanded that kind of hype at age 16. He was and is showing that level of raw tools, but his hitting ability hasn't allowed him to reach Harper heights and he sits third on my board.

Now, the answer to that question is "yes," depending on your definition -- but I'm speaking about the No. 1 prospect on my draft board, Georgia prep CF Druw Jones (son of Atlanta Braves star Andruw). Jones had his viral moment last week and luckily I was there:

 

Quote

I watched Jones play the day before as well, as he wrapped up a blistering first month of scrimmages and games to start his season. National scouts have been telling me they were turning in lofty scouting reports from his early spring games. I can confirm -- after about two years of scouting Jones -- that he's turned the corner, and after spending the last week talking to more than two dozen scouts about him, I haven't found one who has another player atop their list. Most give Jones a significant lead over the next best player, fellow Atlanta-area prep 2B Termarr Johnson.

Quote

I'd say about a quarter of the scouts called Jones the best draft prospect since Harper was drafted in 2010; the other three-fourths either took one of those other players or thought there was a multiway tie. There are three other former No. 1 picks -- Stephen Strasburg in 2009, David Price in 2007 and Justin Upton in 2005 -- who join Harper as the only four prospects in recent memory to clearly top Jones.

I'm still in the majority in that I think Jones is on that secondary tier with Rutschman, Buxton & Co., but we've still got the rest of the spring for that to shake out. If Jones turned pro right now and needed to be slotted on my Top 100 MLB prospects list, I'd rank him in the 60 FV tier, in the 10-to-21 range overall.

 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

There is no case to take a glorified DH with the first pick after tanking.

As for Jones’ bat, is it really a question mark or is it the search to find something wrong?  Is it really an issue or is his defense and athleticism just even better and the bat gets knocked down because of it?

I’m just skeptical of a lot of these types of things at times, especially when the process is as drawn out as this years is.

His hit tool is/was rated at 55.  Brooks Lee is a 65.  Johnson is a 70.    Somebody didn't make that up in the last two weeks.    Almost every writeup on him mentions his hitting and that his swing might need some adjustments.   Even Law kind of hedged his bet when he said "unless we're all wrong about his hit tool".    That stuff about his hitting was out there long before he became the #1 guy.   He became the #1 guy based on huge offensive numbers he put up this season which made everyone feel better about his hitting.   I assume he got a little stronger and hit with more authority.

As far as Berry, I agree that his position 1B/DH/CO is definitely a drag and that puts a lot of pressure on the bat to be special.   You dismiss the possibility that some evaluators might think he has the best bat (combination hitting and hitting for power) in the draft and feel that he's got a high floor and a high ceiling.   Since most mocks have him going somewhere between 6-10, he most likely offers the most savings if the Orioles want to go big overslot at #33.    I know.  I know.   

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Moniak

justin Upton (actually played ss in high school, but drafters as of)

delmon young

josh hamilton

griffey jr 

shawn abner 

darryl strawberry 

Going back to 1980 these are high school of drafted 1:1. Jones is not considered the same level of prospect as Griffey jr. or Hamilton, but he is certainly better then Moniak. I’d be fine with them taking Jones, but there is a fairly good chance he turns into Bubba Starling. It just seems like you’re treating Jones more like a Griffey or Harper prospect, and the scouting reports/pre-draft analysis doesn’t match that. 

No one has said he’s on that level.  But he’s the best overall prospect in this draft according to basically everyone. 

But I’m not interested in drafting Dansby Swanson when high upside, elite guys are sitting there.

I would rather see Jones or Collier flame out than take a 2-3 WAR player out of college who doesn’t have a ton of development left in his game.

[btdart20]

45 minutes ago, seak05 said:

The likelihood is that Lee will end up a better player then Jones

Major League Draft WARs: An Analysis of Wins Above Replacement in Player Selection - IOS Press

Maybe/maybe not.  At least history doesn't support that thesis for players taken in the first 5 picks of the first round.  HS bats and JC bats have the highest career WAR compared to 4YR batters.  (fig. 4 on the link)

[RZNJ]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ehhh, I don’t really agree with that and I also don’t really care.  If Lee ends up being the better player I still think it was the wrong pick at the time it was made.

3 years worth of tanking shouldn’t end with you “playing it safe” and passing up on elite talent.  It’s just not logical.  

We get it.   No matter what happens, Andruw Jones was the right choice.   So you're right even if you're wrong.  Gotta love it.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

His hit tool is/was rated at 55.  Brooks Lee is a 65.  Johnson is a 70.    Somebody didn't make that up in the last two weeks.    Almost every writeup on him mentions his hitting and that his swing might need some adjustments.   Even Law kind of hedged his bet when he said "unless we're all wrong about his hit tool".    That stuff about his hitting was out there long before he became the #1 guy.   He became the #1 guy based on huge offensive numbers he put up this season which made everyone feel better about his hitting.   I assume he got a little stronger and hit with more authority.

As far as Berry, I agree that his position 1B/DH/CO is definitely a drag and that puts a lot of pressure on the bat to be special.   You dismiss the possibility that some evaluators might think he has the best bat (combination hitting and hitting for power) in the draft and feel that he's got a high floor and a high ceiling.   Since most mocks have him going somewhere between 6-10, he most likely offers the most savings if the Orioles want to go big overslot at #33.    I know.  I know.   

You keep saying in dismissing.  That’s a stupid thing to say.  I’m not dismissing anything no matter what bs narrative you want to push.

I’m just not weighing that at the level you are and I’m not positioning myself to be fine with anything that Elias does, like you seem to always do.

Im glad Berry and Johnson can hit and the scouts like that tool.  Too bad baseball is played more than just in the batters box.  There is more to the sport than that. I assume you realize this but maybe you don’t since you keep talking about dismissing.

Maybe you just weigh hitting higher than everything else and that’s fine but just because I don’t doesn’t mean im dismissing the reports of their hitting.  
 

 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

We get it.   No matter what happens, Andruw Jones was the right choice.   So you're right even if you're wrong.  Gotta love it.

Andruw Jones isn’t being drafted and yes, I think the process matters a lot.  
 

And yea, we get it.  You will go with wherever Elias does because you are a slave to him.  That’s fine.

For me, there are only a few acceptable players to take and Johnson, Lee and Berry are not in that group.  You disagree.  I’m excited to hear it but I also really don’t care, just as you don’t care who I prefer.