O's on the edge of contention in July

[Frobby]

On 7/13/2022 at 5:56 AM, Frobby said:

What I’m saying is that I wouldn’t want to put any eggs in the 2022 basket unless our mathematical playoff odds had reached at least 20% by the time we have to make a decision.  They’re increasing every day right now, so we’ll see where they are 2-3 days from the trade deadline.  

OK, it’s approaching 2-3 days from the trade deadline now, and our playoff odds depend on who you ask, but they’re much improved from when I made the post above:

BB-ref says 34.0%

BP’s PECOTA says 18.6%

Fangraphs uses two methods; one based on ZiPS and Steamer  says 4.9.%, but the other based on season to date says 32.8%.   (You have to toggle the linked page to get there.)

So, who are you going to believe and what are you going to do?  It’s pretty tricky.  At 33% I’d say go for it and at 5% I’d say forget it.   We’re both at the same time!

The other unknown is whether we can have a McLouth/Manny-type booster shot in August.  The 2012 O’s were 51-46, and finished 42-23.  Time for Henderson?
 

Edited July 30, 2022 by Frobby

[IPlayGM]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK, it’s approaching 2-3 days from the trade deadline now, and our playoff odds depend on who you ask, but they’re much improved from when I made the post above:

BB-ref says 34.0%

BP’s PECOTA says 18.6%

Fangraphs uses two methods; one based on ZiPS and Steamer  says 4.9.%, but the other based on season to date says 32.8%.   (You have to toggle the linked page to get there.)

So, who are you going to believe and what are you going to do?  It’s pretty tricky.  At 33% I’d say go for it and at 5% I’d say forget it.   We’re both at the same time!

The other unknown is whether we can have a McLouth/Manny-type booster shot in August.  The 2012 O’s were 51-46, and finished 42-23.  Time for Henderson?
 

What is the downside of bringing up Gunnar? Is it simply the year of control? I have never had a problem with the Os playing the service time game, but if we are establishing an “elite pipeline of talent”, then doesn’t this service time issue diminish? To me your deadline deals involve minor league promotions and ridding the roster of the AAAA players.

[Hank Scorpio]

13 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

What is the downside of bringing up Gunnar? Is it simply the year of control? I have never had a problem with the Os playing the service time game, but if we are establishing an “elite pipeline of talent”, then doesn’t this service time issue diminish? To me your deadline deals involve minor league promotions and ridding the roster of the AAAA players.

I mean, this is why you stack up elite talent, right?

 

[terpoh]

On July 29, 2012 the O's were 53-49. Not too far off where they stand today. 

They called up Manny on August 9 as a 20 year old to take over 3B and inject some life into the lineup. 

Gunnar is 21 and has had far superior MILB numbers (not that that means a ton). Its not out of the realm to expect them to bring him up. With a big need in the IF there's no excuse really. Gunnar can come up and take over 3B every day. Urias/Vavra/Odor can split 2B with Urias filling in at 3B and SS when needed as well. Nevin to AAA. Easy. 

Would be hard to understand them not bringing him up if things still stand as they do now in a week or so. 

[emmett16]

Gunnar and Hall would be a huge boost.  Can only dream of Grayson coming up last couple weeks of September & making an impact.  Seems to me they don’t need to make a trade to improve the team.  Keep the band together, bring up the kids, let the team gel and see where the cards fall.   Give Mancini a QO/one year contract and trade Mountcastle & Santander in the off-season.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

OK, it’s approaching 2-3 days from the trade deadline now, and our playoff odds depend on who you ask, but they’re much improved from when I made the post above:

BB-ref says 34.0%

BP’s PECOTA says 18.6%

Fangraphs uses two methods; one based on ZiPS and Steamer  says 4.9.%, but the other based on season to date says 32.8%.   (You have to toggle the linked page to get there.)

So, who are you going to believe and what are you going to do?  It’s pretty tricky.  At 33% I’d say go for it and at 5% I’d say forget it.   We’re both at the same time!

The other unknown is whether we can have a McLouth/Manny-type booster shot in August.  The 2012 O’s were 51-46, and finished 42-23.  Time for Henderson?
 

For discussion’s sake, I think you could triangulate and say 20-25% as a reasonable “wisdom of crowds” expectation. A 1/4 shot (or a hair less) does feel about right. The counterpoint is that this team really seems to be a different one than at the beginning of season when many of the losses were compiled. 

[Just Regular]

3 more games in view before Monday night-Tuesday day.     Each daily Win-Loss seems like it'll move the odds ~5-10% either way, which seems appropriate.   90 wins = ~100%, 81 wins = ~0%, each marginal win between 81 and 89 generally the very highest individual ones between 47 and 115.