A Pennant Race and a Playoff Berth should be the Goal for the 2022 O's

[wildcard]

The O's are the 2 games out of the wild card  with 2 and a half month to go.   Nothing would move this team forward better than to be a pennant race and to make the playoffs.  It is invaluable experience for a young team.  

So don't trade away key players at the deadline.  Instead add players from the minors to supplement the team for the rest for the season. 

Trades can be made in the off season.

[Moose Milligan]

Oh Lord, here we go.  

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Oh Lord, here we go.  

Are you denying that over the last eight games the Orioles are on pace for a 162-0 season? And that would be the all time record for wins by 47? Based on the most recent and relevant information we could be witnessing the emergence of the greatest baseball team ever (although we'll have to wait a few months for 100% confirmation).  Are you willing to risk that?  Are you?!

[Hank Scorpio]

SELL THE FARM SYSTEM!!!!!!!!!!

[Frobby]

Let’s just see where things stand the last couple days of July.   It’s doubtful anything happens before then unless Elias is offered a deal that’s just too good to pass up.   No reason to judge this right now during the euphoria of our longest winning streak in 17 years.   Let’s see if we play solid, good baseball for the next 2.5 weeks and get a few games over .500, or whether things regress.  

[Aristotelian]

By pennant race do you mean winning the division? We are 18+ back of the Yankees with four teams ahead of us. I agree with your general approach, stand pat and bring up Vavra/Westburg/Hall. Maybe explore the market for Santander and replace him with Stowers/Diaz. Let Trey walk as he can help us now and isn't bringing back much. 

[Just Regular]

This morning as BP type writers awkwardly recalibrate, one of them awkwardly put a "Death to Flying Things" compliment on the OF defense.    This confused me as while the unit's nice, it doesn't collectively bring up peak Franklin Gutierrez images.    OAA this morning see Orioles 11th of 30 team-wise, filtering for OF only.

In my giddiness, I did look at the 2012 day to day.    Manny was ~August 9th.  They hit a lull around the All-Star break and on July 17 bottomed out at 46-44.   The pleasant first half felt like it might be nearing its end.   They then won 5 in a row, and the Manny deployment decision came about two weeks later.

One bit of psychobabble that is settling for me is this.    If the guys play well enough in the last 17 games Elias has a view of before the Trade Deadline to feel like they deserve a shot (I'll appoint Ryan Mountcastle as emotional signal leader) might feel, I feel Elias had better make at least a token move to reinforce the team somehow.    I feel like if the Decision Science finding deems this all a mirage, the Front Office de facto vote of no confidence in this Clubhouse probably ends up with the Guys meeting that expectation.     

I feel this offday they've played their way into the Maybe zone, so the big Buy-Sell decisions probably await the last 24-48 hours absent a 9-1 or 1-9 next 10 games.

 

[Moose Milligan]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s just see where things stand the last couple days of July.   It’s doubtful anything happens before then unless Elias is offered a deal that’s just too good to pass up.   No reason to judge this right now during the euphoria of our longest winning streak in 17 years.   Let’s see if we play solid, good baseball for the next 2.5 weeks and get a few games over .500, or whether things regress.  

Get out of here with your pragmatic takes!

[ScGO's]

The only way I would support going in on 2022 and holding on to all our pieces, would be to consider the pitching. I don't think the O's have the starter depth. Its already been stated that Wells will be moved out of that role.  So right now we will be going into August with:

Lyles, Watkins, Kremer, and Voth

They might add Harvey, so does that starting 5 scream playoffs?  I don't think Elias wants to sacrifice any of his high level prospects yet. So if you can trade for a Snell or another "bad contract" SP without sacrificing any high level prospects, then maybe a Rotation of Snell, Lyles, Harvey, Kremer, etc can compete. Do you get to add Gray Rod to that in September?

The Bullpen could be absolutely disgusting with Wells, Hall, Lopez, Bautista, Perez, Tate, and Baker.  That could help any short comings our Starting 5 would face, but the starting 5 still needs to be a lot better than it is right now.

If the O's sacrificed any of their Top 30 Prospects in order to "buy," I would be very disappointed.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

 

One bit of psychobabble that is settling for me is this.    If the guys play well enough in the last 17 games Elias has a view of before the Trade Deadline to feel like they deserve a shot (I'll appoint Ryan Mountcastle as emotional signal leader) might feel, I feel Elias had better make at least a token move to reinforce the team somehow.    I feel like if the Decision Science finding deems this all a mirage, the Front Office de facto vote of no confidence in this Clubhouse probably ends up with the Guys meeting that expectation.     

 

 

I agree, even if it's not the smartest decision, shopping Trey would be deflating to the fans as well as the players, and would justify accusations of tanking and "bad for baseball." Given the likely return for a rental deal, I am starting to think I'd rather have a couple months of competitive baseball no matter the outcome. In 1989 the Orioles Magic team ended up falling short but that was one of the most awesome and memorable experiences I've had as a fan. Just don't do something truly stupid like the Glenn Davis deal. 

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

The O's are the 2 games out of the wild card  with 2 and a half month to go.   Nothing would move this team forward better than to be a pennant race and to make the playoffs.  It is invaluable experience for a young team.  

So don't trade away key players at the deadline.  Instead add players from the minors to supplement the team for the rest for the season. 

Trades can be made in the off season.

The Orioles are in last place 18.5 games back and last place in the American League East while playing the unquestioned best baseball the team has played in at least 5 years.

While there will be, in fact, some awesome exciting games coming up and a great opportunity for young players, the Orioles would hurt the future to not seek trades of Mancini, Santander and a bull pen piece or two.  Why?  

Because you are correct, nothing would move this club forward more than a pennant race. But the Orioles are not in one.  We can in fact make trades that can help our starting pitching.  Say Mancini and a reliever to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot?  I am not even saying that is possible, but the Orioles would be crazy not to do that type of deal.  

Hell the Orioles could have a conversation with Mancini and tell him they want him back to finish the run, but need to move him now.  But deviating from the plan to win a World Series and be a consistent contender because we have broken the barrier of 20 games out of first would be asinine.

What we should expect is that this is the floor and that from here the climb begins...but getting to .500 is a mark to celebrate and is an accomplishment to expect and build on.  

It is no reason to irrationally wreck a foundation that has brought a painful rebuild.  No.   Trading Mancini, Santander or others for real value, if it is there, for talent that helps the climb from the cellar of the AL East can be done.  And that does not have to mean accepting .350 baseball till next year.  But keeping these guys and not making real moves that could move the dial this year or next year...is sorta how we got to the bottom in the first place.

[Just Regular]

13-4 90th percentile - trade Coby Mayo for Luis Castillo

10-7 65th percentile - just pay some RH reliever his qualified major leaguer salary for 2 months.    All July I'm using Mychal Givens as a familiar face for this, but they come by the dozen.

7-10 35th percentile - trade Mancini and Lopez, have some 'splainin to do to your 10 best players

4-13 10th percentile - all this competition at the major-league level nonsense stops distracting Mike Elias from threading the needle and signing all his picks.    Banked PR materials about #1 Farm System Again!! do not become obsolete.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree, even if it's not the smartest decision, shopping Trey would be deflating to the fans as well as the players, and would justify accusations of tanking and "bad for baseball." Given the likely return for a rental deal, I am starting to think I'd rather have a couple months of competitive baseball no matter the outcome. In 1989 the Orioles Magic team ended up falling short but that was one of the most awesome and memorable experiences I've had as a fan. Just don't do something truly stupid like the Glenn Davis deal. 

At the 1989 All Star break the Orioles were 5.5 games up on the entire 7-team AL East. Today's Orioles have ridden an 8-game winning streak to within a game of .500, they're 18.5 games out, and they're sitting on 8% playoff odds with expanded wildcards.

You don't trade Mancini or anyone else for a pittance (or a 17-year-old Dominican).  But this is not 1989.  If the offer is good you don't pass because of a less than 10% shot at a wildcard with a team that would start Jordan Lyles in game one of any playoff series.

[Spakman]

What you don’t do is trade for lottery tickets or salary relief.  I don’t think many  of our players get us more than that. 

[Daddy-O's]

There comes a time in a rebuild when you stop looking at who you can trade and start looking at who you can get.  We have reached that point.  If we can trade for starting pitching and the trade deadline facilitates that then we should do it.