Keep Mancini Thread

[foxfield]

Many people, myself included, are likely to have a different opinion of what to do with Mancini after the next 16 days.

But these are the thoughts that I think should be consistently held:

1). If you do not have a deal you love, you can continue to let the schedule unfold.  These next few series will either really amp up the 2022 playoff talks, or throw a lot of cold water on the whole idea.

2).  Mancini cannot be both worthless to teams that need help pursuing the playoffs and also be more valuable to the Orioles who currently have at best a 10% shot.

3). Mancini does not have to be traded alone nor does he have to net a top 100 prospect to be very helpful.

4).  The Orioles are no longer in a salary dump period.  They should not be giving away people just to move them.

5).  Mancini can be traded and resigned.....if that is what the two parties want. (Not saying they do or even should)

 

There are certainly teams that could use Mancini to further their playoff hopes.  Mets, Padres, Yankees and Dodgers are all top teams with much brighter playoff pictures than Baltimore who might find his services useful.  I do not know if a top 100 prospect is possible, but as SG pointed out....Mayo, Stowers, Kjerstad, Norby are players in our system who are not top 100 prospects.  I'd move Mancini for 6 years of any of them and I think everyone here would be delighted at that outcome.

Also there are teams who will be much more devastated to NOT make the playoffs than Baltimore.  We have to look at it from their point of view.  IF we were one bat away from the playoffs would we trade Mayo or Stowers or Kjerstad for Mancini if we thought it gave us the final piece?  Would we if we also got say...someone like Tate?

I think Mancini has value and I think if good value is offered Elias will move him.  And I think if Mancini is valuable to the Orioles with a 10% chance of making the playoffs, he is valuable enough to someone else to bring a satisfactory return to suffer any displeasure with the move.

All Star Break 2022.  

Orioles on longest winning streak since 1999.

Orioles have one of the top Farm Systems in MLB

Orioles are above .500 for first time since 2017

Orioles have a great draft ahead of them this weekend.

I am not fretting this week.  It is a great week to be a fan of the Baltimore Orioles!!!!

 

[RVAOsFan]

10 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Many people, myself included, are likely to have a different opinion of what to do with Mancini after the next 16 days.

But these are the thoughts that I think should be consistency held:

1). If you do not have a deal you love, you can continue to let the schedule unfold.  These next few series will either really amp up the 2022 playoff talks, or throw a lot of cold water on the whole idea.

2).  Mancini cannot be both worthless to teams that need help pursuing the playoffs and also be more valuable to the Orioles who currently have at best a 10% shot.

3). Mancini does not have to be traded alone nor does he have to net a top 100 prospect to be very helpful.

4).  The Orioles are no longer in a salary dump period.  They should not be giving away people just to move them.

5).  Mancini can be traded and resigned.....if that is what the two parties want. (Not saying they do or even should)

 

There are certainly teams that could use Mancini to further their playoff hopes.  Mets, Padres, Yankees and Dodgers are all top teams with much brighter playoff pictures than Baltimore who might find his services useful.  I do not know if a top 100 prospect is possible, but as SG pointed out....Mayo, Stowers, Kjerstad, Norby are players in our system who are not top 100 prospects.  I'd move Mancini for 6 years of any of them and I think everyone here would be delighted at that outcome.

Also there are teams who will be much more devastated to NOT make the playoffs than Baltimore.  We have to look at it from their point of view.  IF we were one bat away from the playoffs would we trade Mayo or Stowers or Kjerstad for Mancini if we thought it gave us the final piece?  Would we if we also got say...someone like Tate?

I think Mancini has value and I think if good value is offered Elias will move him.  And I think if Mancini is valuable to the Orioles with a 10% chance of making the playoffs, he is valuable enough to someone else to bring a satisfactory return to suffer any displeasure with the move.

All Star Break 2022.  

Orioles on longest winning streak since 1999.

Orioles have one of the top Farm Systems in MLB

Orioles are above .500 for first time since 2017

Orioles have a great draft ahead of them this weekend.

I am not fretting this week.  It is a great week to be a fan of the Baltimore Orioles!!!!

 

Excellent post, this month is shaping up to be huge.  Elias has the 1:1 pick and a huge pool, probably the last time he has a top 5 pick for several years.  He has a team surging with players that could bring back talent or make a playoff push.  The decisions made this month most likely have big ramifications for the organization over the next several years and Elias career.

[Frobby]

All good points by @foxfield.   The one obvious point omitted is that Mancini has clubhouse and fan appeal value to the Orioles that is greater than anywhere else.   That weighs in favor of keeping him if it’s a close call otherwise.   But it may not be.  

[foxfield]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

All good points by @foxfield.   The one obvious point omitted is that Mancini has clubhouse and fan appeal value to the Orioles that is greater than anywhere else.   That weighs in favor of keeping him if it’s a close call otherwise.   But it may not be.  

Thanks @Frobby, I absolutely agree Mancini has clubhouse and fan appeal.  I did not include it bc 1) I think if he is leaving anyway is pretty negligible as to actual value, but cant be totally discounted. He is such a great person and great story and he is revered in the clubhouse and by fans.  2) think his value is high enough to everyone....say Buck Showalter, that anything we get in return will be a pleasant surprise.

But yes if it is a close call it should absolutely factor in.   

 

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Thanks @Frobby, I absolutely agree Mancini has clubhouse and fan appeal.  I did not include it bc 1) I think if he is leaving anyway is pretty negligible as to actual value, but cant be totally discounted. He is such a great person and great story and he is revered in the clubhouse and by fans.  2) think his value is high enough to everyone....say Buck Showalter, that anything we get in return will be a pleasant surprise.

But yes if it is a close call it should absolutely factor in.   

 

I also think Trey may bring back more than people think.   

If I’m Elias, I’m probably targeting guys who are still 2-3 years away.   That part of our farm system is thin.  16 of our top 17 (by some lists) are at Norfolk and Bowie.    There’s not much behind them, though the upcoming draft will certainly bolster that part of our farm.  
 

[Roll Tide]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I also think Trey may bring back more than people think.   

If I’m Elias, I’m probably targeting guys who are still 2-3 years away.   That part of our farm system is thin.  16 of our top 17 (by some lists) are at Norfolk and Bowie.    There’s not much behind them, though the upcoming draft will certainly bolster that part of our farm.  
 

I think they will find a taker with a fair offer.

 

This Mets writer talks about an overpay to get Mancini. He’s attractive to their GM because he plays COF, and 1B.

https://risingapple.com/posts/ny-mets-trade-rumors-4-designated-hitters-cj-cron-trey-mancini/2

Looking at the top 30 maybe their #6 prospect Matt Allen at High A 2.6 era ….FB 65, CB 60, Change 55, and control 50. And Robert Dominguez 20 years old at A ball FB 65 (100 mph), slider 50, change 40…. But he’s only 20

 

Thoughts?

[sevastras]

On 7/12/2022 at 8:35 AM, Can_of_corn said:

Who mentioned Davis?

How did the Roberts deal work, the second Hardy deal, the second O'Day deal, the Trumbo deal?

How did the Miguel Cabrera deal work out for the Tigers?  Strasburg for the Nationals? 

But a Nelson Cruz deal would have been really good instead of Trumbo. Trumbo was easy to like and wasn’t as bad a deal as Davis.  

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I think they will find a taker with a fair offer.

 

This Mets writer talks about an overpay to get Mancini. He’s attractive to their GM because he plays COF, and 1B.

https://risingapple.com/posts/ny-mets-trade-rumors-4-designated-hitters-cj-cron-trey-mancini/2

Looking at the top 30 maybe their #6 prospect Matt Allen at High A 2.6 era ….FB 65, CB 60, Change 55, and control 50. And Robert Dominguez 20 years old at A ball FB 65 (100 mph), slider 50, change 40…. But he’s only 20

 

Thoughts?

I doubt Mancini could get both those guys.  I would throw in a prospect to get Allen. 

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I doubt Mancini could get both those guys.  I would throw in a prospect to get Allen. 

You don’t trade a major leaguer and a prospect for a prospect. It doesn’t happen or is extremely rare. You trade a MLB talent for prospects. Even the Mets writer admits they will have to overpay. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

You don’t trade a major leaguer and a prospect for a prospect. It doesn’t happen or is extremely rare. You trade a MLB talent for prospects. Even the Mets writer admits they will have to overpay. 

Well then the O's will have to add someone like Tate.  O's fans are drastically overvaluing Mancini.  I think he gets more like a #10 prospect and a #20 prospect in an average farm system. 

[SteveA]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Well then the O's will have to add someone like Tate.  O's fans are drastically overvaluing Mancini.  I think he gets more like a #10 prospect and a #20 prospect in an average farm system. 

If that's true, I would just as soon not trade him.   

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Well then the O's will have to add someone like Tate.  O's fans are drastically overvaluing Mancini.  I think he gets more like a #10 prospect and a #20 prospect in an average farm system. 

As @Frobbysaid, he’s undervalued here……in regards to trade value. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Steve Adams

1:13

A pretty marginal one. He's a good hitter but he's not dirt-cheap, he's a pure rental (it's extraordinarily rare for both sides to pick up a mutual option), and there's no real defensive value there. It'll be a return that pisses off O's fans in all likelihood -- especially now that they're improbably back to the .500 mark in mid-July.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/mlbtr-live-chat-710.html

[Roll Tide]

32 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Steve Adams

1:13

A pretty marginal one. He's a good hitter but he's not dirt-cheap, he's a pure rental (it's extraordinarily rare for both sides to pick up a mutual option), and there's no real defensive value there. It'll be a return that pisses off O's fans in all likelihood -- especially now that they're improbably back to the .500 mark in mid-July.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/mlbtr-live-chat-710.html

People have been arguing here that Canha is a solid comp in regards to a DH/1B contract. He’s making 13.275 million. That means he’s owed 6.625 for the second half. Mancini has like 3.75 million left on his second half contract. Pretty cheap for a guy who will likley be a difference maker in your lineup. It’s not the minimum but nobody is trading for a minimum salary guy. So I’m not sure his point, The Orioles could also pay part or all of that remaining money.

The Mets writer understands that he won’t be cheap in a trade. Elias said he’s not giving away players and I believe him. How much do you know about Steve Adams? We can agree to disagree, he either will be dealt or he won’t. If traded we can debate the return. If he’s not there was not enough value or Elias decided to chase the Wild Card. I guess we can have a better idea based on where we are. You said above that you thought a #10 and #20 from a middling system. So maybe Elias can negotiate #6 and some 18 year old DR players that he likes or #6 and #30. I suggested #6 amd #18 and you are saying 10 and 20.  So maybe that #9 Hamel and #21 Vasil. Or #6 Allan and #26 Suarez….I was looking for guys that they have playing in A ball since we are pretty top heavy with 16 of 17 of our top prospects are in AA or AAA

[oh-wee-ohs]

The romantic in me wants to think if it's a coin flip, on-the-fence offer, Elias asks Mancini straight up what he wants to do. Stay here and see what happens with our 5% chance or go play with a team basically guaranteed to go to the post season. Private convo so no one knows he was asked. What do you think? I think he votes to stay.