Rutschman vs Witt

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

15 more “tough blocks” last year than this year out of 3000+ opportunities.  I’m not gonna let that ruffle my feathers or point to that as a significant (or really any)drop off in performance.  

Yes and last year, his blocks above average on tough pitches was +5. This year, it’s -1.

The point is, your claim that this staff is harder to catch this year doesn’t seem to be supported. His block chances are easier this year than last year. On top of that, he is doing less with those chances than last what.

This is an Adley issue, not a pitching staff issue…and it’s ok to say that out loud. It doesn’t mean you don’t think he’s great. It doesn’t mean you want him gone. It doesn’t mean you don’t think he can be great behind the plate again. But for right now, this year, he isn’t what he was last year and that sucks.

[emmett16]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That's 1.4% of opportunities. So he is getting as many tough opportunities as anyone (although fewer than last year, 1.9%). Basically it appears last year he had a crazy high number of tough opportunities and made a crazy good number of them. I am not going to call him awful or anything but I agree they should be looking at tape comparing this year and last year and see if there is anything he could do better. 

I’d be flabbergasted if that process isn’t well underway and isn’t a continuous process.  I guess my point is that we are squabbling over % points of % points.  One bounce here, one block there, one pitch that doesn’t hit the screen, etc. and we are even.  We are talking about 8 blocks over the span of 3000+ opportunities.  Seems silly.  

 

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’d be flabbergasted if that process isn’t well underway and isn’t a continuous process.  I guess my point is that we are squabbling over % points of % points.  One bounce here, one block there, one pitch that doesn’t hit the screen, etc. and we are even.  We are talking about 8 blocks over the span of 3000+ opportunities.  Seems silly.  

 

And you are 100% right here but when you are trying to push a narrative that perhaps he’s worse because the pitching staff is harder, that doesn’t seem to be supported. If you want to say these numbers are within some kind of margin for error from last years stats, the staff is no worse/harder than last year.

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea and the number was 1.9% last year and he did a better job.

This suggests to me that Statcast changed its methodology for classifying what a tough block is.  Last year Adley supposedly had 1.9% tough block opportunities, but there were four others at 1.5% or higher. Nobody is over 1.4% this year.   Seems unlikely that there would have been that drastic a change in the percentage of tough blocks that catchers actually handle league-wide.  More likely, the criteria for a tough block opportunity were tweaked.  

Also, last year there were 7 catchers who were +10 or higher on blocks above average.  This year there are only 2 on pace  to do that (another 2 are close).  So that’s another indication that the way these stats are generated may have been tweaked.  

I’m not saying any of this to argue that Adley’s pitch blocking hasn’t declined a bit from last year.  I think it has declined some.  I’m just saying these numbers may have a bit of variance based on changes in how they’re calculated.  But I don’t actually know if there have been changes, it just looks like there might have been.  

 

[Aristotelian]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This suggests to me that Statcast changed its methodology for classifying what a tough block is.  Last year Adley supposedly had 1.9% tough block opportunities, but there were four others at 1.5% or higher. Nobody is over 1.4% this year.   Seems unlikely that there would have been that drastic a change in the percentage of tough blocks that catchers actually handle league-wide.  More likely, the criteria for a tough block opportunity were tweaked.  

 

I noticed the same thing. Makes you wonder with a lot of these "stats" what the underlying inputs are and where they come from. Garbage in, garbage out, as they say. Even in this day of AI, I can't imagine a computer accurately determining something as complex as hard from easy catcher chances. But if ia human codes each pitch, that introduces subjectivity. Certainly, I don't agree with a lot of the PB/WP calls made by the scorekeeper. I would imagine easy/medium/hard is even harder to determine. 

[Jim'sKid26]

@Sports Guy So you would have rather drafted Witt over Adley? 

Are you opposed to drafting a catcher 1:1?

When you take into consideration the impact of wear and tear on a catcher over his career should you anticipate less overall value when compared to other position players?

Finally, given that it takes catchers a bit longer to master their trade, example is Jonah Heim who was drafted (by the O's) in 2013 but didn't become a star until 2022, are we too early to accurately compare these two prospects?

Just trying to understand your logic here.

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Jim'sKid26

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I noticed the same thing. Makes you wonder with a lot of these "stats" what the underlying inputs are and where they come from. Garbage in, garbage out, as they say. Even in this day of AI, I can't imagine a computer accurately determining something as complex as hard from easy catcher chances. But if ia human codes each pitch, that introduces subjectivity. Certainly, I don't agree with a lot of the PB/WP calls made by the scorekeeper. I would imagine easy/medium/hard is even harder to determine. 

Here’s what Baseball Savant says:

“How this works: Every pitch is assigned a probability of being a passed ball or wild pitch based upon several inputs, most notably: pitch location, pitch speed, pitch movement, catcher location, and batter/pitcher handedness. Based on that knowledge, each pitch a catcher receives (or fails to) is credited or debited with the appropriate amount of difficulty. For example, if a catcher blocks a pitch that is a PB + WP 10% of the time, he will receive +0.10. If he blocks a pitch that is a PB + WP 90% of the time, he will receive +0.90.”

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-blocking?players=672386-2023-141&selected_idx=0

Seems like that has to be computer generated rather than judged by humans.  Still, they may have tweaked their criteria for labeling the difficulty.

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes and last year, his blocks above average on tough pitches was +5. This year, it’s -1.

The point is, your claim that this staff is harder to catch this year doesn’t seem to be supported. His block chances are easier this year than last year. On top of that, he is doing less with those chances than last what.

This is an Adley issue, not a pitching staff issue…and it’s ok to say that out loud. It doesn’t mean you don’t think he’s great. It doesn’t mean you want him gone. It doesn’t mean you don’t think he can be great behind the plate again. But for right now, this year, he isn’t what he was last year and that sucks.

 

I'm not sure what you're even arguing?  That Adley is a bad defensive catcher?  Because no one else here believes that, and I don't think you do either.  That Adley is just average defensively this year?  Everyone is in agreement with that.  That Adley is worse than last year?  Everyone is in agreement with that.

 

He's basically at -15 blocks, and -6 hard blocks for 2023 vs 2022.  I think that he's unquestionably looked worse, but the explanation for why that's the case is certainly not as cut-and-dry as what you're presenting, and given that we're talking about over 3000 attempts here, it certainly seems plausible that at least some of the variation on +/- 15 blocks could come from random variation or "hot/cold" streaks.

 

He's still grading above average as a pitch blocker, so even if he's a downgrade from the 2022 version, I don't know why you're claiming he's lazy?  Because he doesn't look as good as last year?  That seems like an unreasonable standard.  Additionally, catcher blocking seems highly volatile - since statcast started measuring in 2018, only 3 players appear in the top 25 more than once.

Edited August 16, 2023 by Hallas

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

@Sports Guy So you would have rather drafted Witt over Adley? 

Are you opposed to drafting a catcher 1:1?

When you take into consideration the impact of wear and tear on a catcher over his career should you anticipate less overall value when compared to other position players?

Finally, given that it takes catchers a bit longer to master their trade, example is Jonah Heim who was drafted (by the O's) in 2013 but didn't become a star until 2022, are we too early to accurately compare these two prospects?

Just trying to understand your logic here.

 

At the time of the draft, I 100% would have taken Witt.

I also think Witt will end up the better player.

That said, if I used hindsight and knowing what else we did since then, I would say for us, Adley is the guy to have.

Not sure if that actually answers your questions since it’s different answers. 

I would have had no issue taking Witt and Henderson.

The other fascinating discussion is between Lawlar and Holliday. I would definitely rather have Holliday than Lawlar but I would also definitely rather have Lawlar than Cowser. However, if we have Lawlar (and Witt and Henderson), do we take Holliday? 
 

Like I said before, one move just changes so many things.

Edited August 16, 2023 by Sports Guy

[survivedc]

To be filed in the “searching for explanations” camp:

Is it possible that Adley is selectively deciding when to actively go after pitches with his best effort? Something of an energy saving and career lengthening move? Don’t go all out on blocking a pitch with the team up or down by 5 runs, for example. 
 

No clue, just a thought.

[Sports Guy]

53 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

@Sports Guy So you would have rather drafted Witt over Adley? 

Are you opposed to drafting a catcher 1:1?

When you take into consideration the impact of wear and tear on a catcher over his career should you anticipate less overall value when compared to other position players?

Finally, given that it takes catchers a bit longer to master their trade, example is Jonah Heim who was drafted (by the O's) in 2013 but didn't become a star until 2022, are we too early to accurately compare these two prospects?

Just trying to understand your logic here.

 

And btw, plenty of people were fine to slam me last year when Adley was “mastering his craft” at a high level and Witt was further behind and saying how much better Adley was and how much of a better pick he was so no, I don’t think it’s too early although I agree that it is likely to keep changing for a few more years until we have a much larger sample size for each player.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

I'm not sure what you're even arguing?  That Adley is a bad defensive catcher?  Because no one else here believes that, and I don't think you do either.  That Adley is just average defensively this year?  Everyone is in agreement with that.  That Adley is worse than last year?  Everyone is in agreement with that.

 

He's basically at -15 blocks, and -6 hard blocks for 2023 vs 2022.  I think that he's unquestionably looked worse, but the explanation for why that's the case is certainly not as cut-and-dry as what you're presenting, and given that we're talking about over 3000 attempts here, it certainly seems plausible that at least some of the variation on +/- 15 blocks could come from random variation or "hot/cold" streaks.

 

He's still grading above average as a pitch blocker, so even if he's a downgrade from the 2022 version, I don't know why you're claiming he's lazy?  Because he doesn't look as good as last year?  That seems like an unreasonable standard.  Additionally, catcher blocking seems highly volatile - since statcast started measuring in 2018, only 3 players appear in the top 25 more than once.

I’m arguing simply that people want to make every excuse for Adley and are afraid to simply say, it’s his fault.

It’s not just here. I see it everywhere. The excuses are rampant. So many just seem like they can’t formulate the phrase…Adley is underperforming in 2023. He’s off by at least 3 WAR right now, in the eyes where most thought he would be.

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

And you are 100% right here but when you are trying to push a narrative that perhaps he’s worse because the pitching staff is harder, that doesn’t seem to be supported. If you want to say these numbers are within some kind of margin for error from last years stats, the staff is no worse/harder than last year.

 

I’m not claiming that is in fact the case or pushing a narrative.  I simply posed the question if that could be the case.  I dont know if that is in fact the case and haven’t suggested that is the only  reason, I’m just wondering if that could play into it.  With GRod & Bradish at the top of the stuff+ leader board, Bautista throwing 103 & a splitty, and Cano throwing frisbees (earlier in the year) it seems to me that may be a plausible reason why the stats are down slightly.  I’m not stating that as a fact and the only reason.  I do agree with you that fatigue very likely has played into it as well and that is one thing that needs to be monitored and managed moving forward this year and into the future.  The fact does stand that he has had more tough chances compared to anyone else in the league this year.  Why is that?  Is that not, at least in part, a function of the pitching staff? I dunno and can’t say for certain.  
 

I sure don’t think the slight down tick I’m performance is from lack of effort, poor technique, or him being lazy.  I think suggesting that is off base.  

Edited August 16, 2023 by emmett16

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

@Sports Guy So you would have rather drafted Witt over Adley? 

Are you opposed to drafting a catcher 1:1?

When you take into consideration the impact of wear and tear on a catcher over his career should you anticipate less overall value when compared to other position players?

Finally, given that it takes catchers a bit longer to master their trade, example is Jonah Heim who was drafted (by the O's) in 2013 but didn't become a star until 2022, are we too early to accurately compare these two prospects?

Just trying to understand your logic here.

 

And there is another element to this equation and that is our player development vs others.

If I go back to the Lawlar vs Holliday argument, it really basically becomes Cowser and Holliday vs Lawlar and Jones.

Now, thus far, Jones has been injured and hasn’t done much. You can’t help the injuries and we don’t know that they occur here but the development may be better here.
 

It’s kind of the same thing with Witt and Adley. Maybe Witt would have been a 4+ WAR guy LAST YEAR. The Orioles are excelling at developing positional talent, to the point where we just aren’t even seeing guys regress pretty much at all as they move up MiL levels..in fact, most have gotten better.

So, would Jones and Witt look better here? Would Holliday look worse somewhere else? Who knows.

This is a concept talked about in the NFL all the time. Where you get drafted, who coaches you, what system you get in, etc…it all matters and it all helps determine if you make it. A player who is a bust on team X May have gone to team Y and been a stud but you obviously can never know that. 

[emmett16]

10 minutes ago, survivedc said:

To be filed in the “searching for explanations” camp:

Is it possible that Adley is selectively deciding when to actively go after pitches with his best effort? Something of an energy saving and career lengthening move? Don’t go all out on blocking a pitch with the team up or down by 5 runs, for example. 
 

No clue, just a thought.

Also, who was on first at the time? Is there a burner on 1b who is going to take off on any ball in the dirt?  If so, the only move to be able to throw out the runner is a quick pick and release.  
 

I’ve been trying to find a way to find the WPs/PBs and see the situation.  My theory is that when some of these are happening it’s a do or die situation.  If the guy is gonna get to 2b even if you block it, who cares?  I think he’d prefer to go for an out vs. pad his block stats.