Holliday at 1 overall

[StatusDC]

1 hour ago, tinman said:

Not knocking this kid, but can somebody explain to me why he was drafted 1 overall? With Adley it was an obvious pick. He was a college player. Exceptional plate discipline. Above average MLB hitter and above average MLB defensive catcher. A rare find.

 

Holliday is a high school Shortstop. But does he really have MLB caliber SS talent? Does he really have the tools to be an above average defensive SS at the MLB level? His arm isn't that great according to the scouting reports. Does he have the quickness and athletic ability to truly play SS? Most top high schoolers start at SS, but then have to move to 3B because they can't cut it as a pro level SS. Hell, many of them even have to move off 3B because they can't cut the mustard at 3B either. End up moving to corner outfield or 1B once they make it to AA. An above league average defensive shortstop is one hell of a find at the MLB level. I don't know, from reading the scouting reports it sounds as though he won't be a plus MLB defender at SS or he will have to move off SS. What about his hitting. We will see. He's not projected to be a big power hitter. 

 

Wishing him all the luck as an O's fan, but these high school kids are risky picks.

 

 

These aren't your father's HS kids. Some of these guys look more developed than college players. With tech, nutrition and training, the gap is closing quickly. Once he fills in, the future is bright.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

11 minutes ago, StatusDC said:

These aren't your father's HS kids. Some of these guys look more developed than college players. With tech, nutrition and training, the gap is closing quickly. Once he fills in, the future is bright.

Plus Jackson is the son of an accomplished major league player. He’s definitely had access to high end training.

[Pruke]

1 hour ago, tinman said:

Not knocking this kid, but can somebody explain to me why he was drafted 1 overall? With Adley it was an obvious pick. He was a college player. Exceptional plate discipline. Above average MLB hitter and above average MLB defensive catcher. A rare find.

 

Holliday is a high school Shortstop. But does he really have MLB caliber SS talent? Does he really have the tools to be an above average defensive SS at the MLB level? His arm isn't that great according to the scouting reports. Does he have the quickness and athletic ability to truly play SS? Most top high schoolers start at SS, but then have to move to 3B because they can't cut it as a pro level SS. Hell, many of them even have to move off 3B because they can't cut the mustard at 3B either. End up moving to corner outfield or 1B once they make it to AA. An above league average defensive shortstop is one hell of a find at the MLB level. I don't know, from reading the scouting reports it sounds as though he won't be a plus MLB defender at SS or he will have to move off SS. What about his hitting. We will see. He's not projected to be a big power hitter. 

 

Wishing him all the luck as an O's fan, but these high school kids are risky picks.

 

 

Do you not like Bobby Witt Jr?

[PHRESH]

1 hour ago, Chaka Garcia said:

I agree on all these points. However, did anyone think he looked smaller than his listed height of 6’1? I understand Elias is 6’3, but he looked small next to him - seemed more like 5-10 or 5-11.

I took a photo with Elias once. He's a serial tippy-toer. Does it right before the flash every time. Don't read too closely into that photo. 

[PHRESH]

Kinda crazy reading all these posts doubting the Holliday pick. Seems like there's a few ppl here with some buyer's remorse just based on a couple of photos of the kid. Meanwhile, the guy many wanted at #1 is out for the year with a shoulder injury. I'm not second guessing just yet. 

[Remember The Alomar]

15 minutes ago, PHRESH said:

I took a photo with Elias once. He's a serial tippy-toer. Does it right before the flash every time. Don't read too closely into that photo. 

Elias is the founder of Barstool Sports?! (if this makes one person laugh, I've done my job).

[Jagwar]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Holliday should have a growth spurt once he hits puberty.

He looks like he's 12 years old

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, tinman said:

Wishing him all the luck as an O's fan, but these high school kids are risky picks.

Let's look at the list of most productive non-pitchers since 2000:

Albert Pujols - Went to community college
Alex Rodriguez - High school
Adrian Beltre - Signed out of high school in the Dominican
Mike Trout - High school
Miguel Cabrera - Signed out of high school in Venezuela
Robinson Cano - Signed out of high school in the Dominican
Carlos Beltran - high school
Joey Votto - high school
Chase Utley - college
Ichiro - went from high school to the NPB in Japan
Bonds - two years at Arizona State
Chipper - high school
Longoria - college
Goldschmidt - college
Helton - college
Mauer - high school
Ortiz - Dominican
Rolen - high school
Kinsler - college
Betts - high school

So six of the top 20 non-pitchers this century attended a four-year college.  I think you might be able to find some value in high school players.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

So all the hundreds of scouts who have seen and analyzed players for the last year are all wrong and the OP is right because he doesn’t think he “looks like” a 1/1.  Give me a break. 

More importantly, what kind of name is Jackson Holliday?  Sounds like an extra on Gunsmoke, not a ballplayer like Hayden Penn.

[TheWall]

3 hours ago, tinman said:

 

I get it. But he was #1 overall. 1! As in nobody picked before him. An entire nation full of players and he was the guy picked. So given that he was picked before everybody else I was expecting a cannon for an arm and potential for if not already showing some serious pop in the bat.

Does anyone in the draft class meet your criteria? It's pretty much consensus that the high school bats were the top prospects in the class. All of them have question marks, but Holliday supposedly has the best hit tool next to Johnson and a great shot at sticking at SS. I'd love to know which scouting reports you've looked at, because everything recent about him is glowing. 

If it makes you feel better Fangraphs has Holliday as the #17 prospect in all of baseball right now ahead of everyone that was drafted in '21. Jones is #14, but they also have him as a High risk prospect whereas they see Holliday as a Medium risk. 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

More importantly, what kind of name is Jackson Holliday?  Sounds like an extra on Gunsmoke, not a ballplayer like Hayden Penn.

Sounds like a vacation near the Grand Tetons.   Which I’d love to do sometime.  

[OriolesMagic83]

Imagine if Elias had drafted Jones.  Posters would say Elias should have known he would hurt his shoulder.  Some scouts/analysts think that Holliday's hit tool is as good as Termarr's.  The question about Jones is his bat.  Might as well let him get a few at bats before pronouncing him a failure.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Imagine if Elias had drafted Jones.  Posters would say Elias should have known he would hurt his shoulder.  Some scouts/analysts think that Holliday's hit tool is as good as Termarr's.  The question about Jones is his bat.  Might as well let him get a few at bats before pronouncing him a failure.

I'm sick of this narrative already.

The O's picked a player 1-2 in 2020 that immediately missed a season and a half and no one blamed Elias for the injury.

This is insulting.  

Players get hurt and it's a shame.

[OriolesMagic83]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sick of this narrative already.

The O's picked a player 1-2 in 2020 that immediately missed a season and a half and no one blamed Elias for the injury.

This is insulting.  

Players get hurt and it's a shame.

I remember a couple of posters proclaiming him a failure before he even had an at bat.  Elias not only needs 22nd century analytics, he needs to be able to predict the future.  Let's give Holliday a chance before proclaiming he won't make it. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I remember a couple of posters proclaiming him a failure before he even had an at bat.  Elias not only needs 22nd century analytics, he needs to be able to predict the future.  Let's give Holliday a chance before proclaiming he won't make it. 

Not liking a pick and blaming Elias for not being able to predict injury/illness are wildly different things.