Jorge Lopez traded to Twins for pitching prospects (edit)

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, DEOriolesfan said:

Elias is trying to build us into perennial contender. You don't do that by making short-sided moves that may get into the playoffs as the 2nd or 3rd WC team. You can't sell the farm to add a player or 2 when you are multiple players away. 

This is the key piece IMO.  Maybe we could have made the playoffs as a wildcard with a few moves IF we went big and IF they panned out.  Going into the trade deadline, we weren't in the top third in pretty much any team stat.  In fact, we were below average in many (most? vast majority?) team measures.  We would have needed to go for big moves (Soto, Bell, Castillo, Mahle...) to make a real run in the playoffs.

If ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas!

I have no qualms with the decision not to buy.  This season was house money.  

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't necessarily disagree with you on your conclusion that Elias basically let this team run it's course, but my issue is that his lineups didn't line up to that bottom line of looking towards the future this season.

The scary part for me is that he felt Aguilar and Odor were the players who should be playing instead of guys like Stowers or Vavra and giving them that experience. 

In my mind, his trades of Lopez and Mancini signaled that he was still looking into the future and not worried about 2022. I was fine with his trades as i didn't believe this team was a true contender either.

Flash forward a month and the Orioles were certainly a contender despite the moves, so what do he do to "sure up a lineup that struggled against lefties?" He signs a washed up Jesus Aguilar who had been terrible all season and particularly terrible against left-handed pitching. then he takes PAs away from Stowers who mashed AAA lefties because he happened to bat left-handed.

So yes, in one hand, he decides this team would play as is and it over achieved to the point it was a legitimate contender until about about the second week in September. Once it was, Aguilar was his answer to "help". 

He allowed Stowers to be a part-time platoon player and then when Vavra screwed up a dp opportunity he allowed him to get buried for weeks while Aguilar and Odor played and the Orioles sank. 

 

I agree with this .. I was wondering though as to your take as to where Hyde’s input came in, or comes in during these decision points.. how does this move fit or not fit… is there a discussion and valuing of his input or is it just Elias and Mejdal etc saying .. this is who is going to get these at bats in this series or going forward ? 

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, deward said:

Losing the depth certainly came home to roost in September. It depends, I guess, on if you think Lopez would have pitched better here than he did in Minnesota. I could see an argument that a familiar environment and coaching staff would have made it more likely that he stayed on track. If you're in the camp that he was pitching over his head all along, and the regression he showed in Minn was inevitable, then he would have been part of the problem in September too. 

I think the more interesting question is, if you assume that Lopez would have continued to pitch well, and that he would have prevented a couple of meltdowns that made the difference in securing a playoff berth or not, was acquiring Cade Povich worth giving up that opportunity? I would argue that no chance at the post-season should passed on lightly.

Elias' strategy is not about having a window to compete.  It's about competing for and being a playoff team most years.  It's about building a team that can win the World Series.  I think we can all agree the Dodgers, Braves and Yankees have a better chance at winning the World Series at the beginning of the playoffs than the Guardians or Mariners as an example.  Mortgaging the future for 1 playoff run is how this franchise ended up in 2018 with the worst ML team and maybe the worst farm.

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I agree with this .. I was wondering though as to your take as to where Hyde’s input came in, or comes in during these decision points.. how does this move fit or not fit… is there a discussion and valuing of his input or is it just Elias and Mejdal etc saying .. this is who is going to get these at bats in this series or going forward ? 

I'll be honest, I do not know. And since the Orioles removed any press that they could not control the narrative from including me, I can't even get a feel for how the decisions are made on the lineup and pitching. 

Maybe ask one of the media to actually ask Hyde or Elias instead of all the softball questions they get asked.

[bpilktree]

We probably had a better chance to make the playoffs if we kept Mancini more then keeping Lopez.   We didn't make the playoffs because we couldn't score and a lot of that was the lack of production from the right side in Hays, Mountcastle, and we even tried Aguliar in some games.  

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Elias' strategy is not about having a window to compete.  It's about competing for and being a playoff team most years.  It's about building a team that can win the World Series.  I think we can all agree the Dodgers, Braves and Yankees have a better chance at winning the World Series at the beginning of the playoffs than the Guardians or Mariners as an example.  Mortgaging the future for 1 playoff run is how this franchise ended up in 2018 with the worst ML team and maybe the worst farm.

Look what we got in return for two players who didn’t move the needle.   Did anyone want to trade Westburg, Norby, Kjerstad, Ortiz, in deals that MIGHT have helped?

[Moose Milligan]

Lol are you guys still talking about this?

[deward]

52 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Elias' strategy is not about having a window to compete.  It's about competing for and being a playoff team most years.  It's about building a team that can win the World Series.  I think we can all agree the Dodgers, Braves and Yankees have a better chance at winning the World Series at the beginning of the playoffs than the Guardians or Mariners as an example.  Mortgaging the future for 1 playoff run is how this franchise ended up in 2018 with the worst ML team and maybe the worst farm.

Is not trading Lopez "mortgaging the future"? I don't think anyone is arguing they should have traded GrayRod for a 5th starter, or something silly like that. Elias could have found ways to help this team try and win a wild card spot that didn't involve significant sacrifices for the future, if he had wanted to. I don't take issue with him not wanting to blow everything out in chase of a playoff berth this year, I take issue with him making no effort towards it at all. This team was winning, and he didn't care. I have a problem with that. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Why are you baking a cake anyway? Pies are way better.

Because the person you are cooking for wants a cake.

Or, it's a cheesecake which is actually pie.

[deward]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because the person you are cooking for wants a cake.

Or, it's a cheesecake which is actually pie.

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Lol are you guys still talking about this?

Of course.   Everyone has yet to admit that Sports Guy is right.   Thus the thread must continue.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, deward said:

Is not trading Lopez "mortgaging the future"? I don't think anyone is arguing they should have traded GrayRod for a 5th starter, or something silly like that. Elias could have found ways to help this team try and win a wild card spot that didn't involve significant sacrifices for the future, if he had wanted to. I don't take issue with him not wanting to blow everything out in chase of a playoff berth this year, I take issue with him making no effort towards it at all. This team was winning, and he didn't care. I have a problem with that. 

Elias made the determination that this team wasn't good enough for the playoffs.  He had to make this determination by late July w/ about 60 games left.  The O's seemed to run out of steam in late August w/ 30+ games left.  Maybe if Elias had traded for Castillo and Bell it would have made a difference, but maybe it wouldn't have.  A trade for a 5th starter or just another arm for the pen wouldn't have done it.  The Padres largely made the playoffs in spite of the trade for Soto, Bell and Hader, not because of it.  I think he made the right choice.  Who knows, maybe the O's could have missed the playoffs by one game. 

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, deward said:

Is not trading Lopez "mortgaging the future"? I don't think anyone is arguing they should have traded GrayRod for a 5th starter, or something silly like that. Elias could have found ways to help this team try and win a wild card spot that didn't involve significant sacrifices for the future, if he had wanted to. I don't take issue with him not wanting to blow everything out in chase of a playoff berth this year, I take issue with him making no effort towards it at all. This team was winning, and he didn't care. I have a problem with that. 

You don’t have any evidence he “didn’t care”.  Drama diminishes the argument.  Mike Elias made a different assessment and decision than you.  But I would suspect he could defend his decision in ways that involve many things, but “not caring” is not one of them, imho. 

[Jagwar]

52 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

You don’t have any evidence he “didn’t care”.  Drama diminishes the argument.  Mike Elias made a different assessment and decision than you.  But I would suspect he could defend his decision in ways that involve many things, but “not caring” is not one of them, imho. 

I agree. Elias made a decision based on a longer term goal of having a team that competes year after year. He made the determination that trading away prospects this year was not aligned with the long term goal.  

[jcaponio]

Don’t let this thread distract you from the fact that Aguilar and Phillips combined for a higher WAR after the trade deadline than Mancini and Lopez did.