Orioles Trade Deadline Rumors and Predictions

[RVAOsFan]

2 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

How long will it take for the O's to be a contender again?

Next year?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RVAOsFan said:

Sounds like Hosmer went to the Red Sox and they picked up some of his salary.  They also traded Gore so I don't how much surplus pitching they would still have to trade if they are going to make a run at it.

Ahh ok didn’t see that although they are paying most of his salary.

Of course, they may also not care about the luxury tax, contrary to reports.

[RVAOsFan]

6 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I don't think it's ridiculous, but I would love to see a surprise trade for a Pablo Lopez to set us up more for 2023. I'm on record saying (even last week before we dealt Mancini and before we lost 2 of 3 to the Reds that I see this team as a 78ish win team right now. I don't think you trade away prospects for now on a team that's not quite there yet. That said, you can certainly trade prospects for 2023 and 2024 and get the benefit of now while you're at it. 

Still, I do think our record has prevented more trades from Elias. I think had we been 10 games worse in the standings right now, we would have seen Santander gone, Tate gone, Urias gone, Lyles gone, and maybe even one of Hays or Mullins gone. And, of course, there's still a couple hours to go....but...

We are still sellers, but we are more limited sellers. We are trading away guys for the best package available. We are only trading guys for packages that Elias likes. And while we aren't all sure on the Lopez deal, there were certainly things about the guys we got that Elias and Sig were targeting. 

What do you think we would have to give up to get Lopez?

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Ahh ok didn’t see that although they are paying most of his salary.

Of course, they may also not care about the luxury tax, contrary to reports.

Does it matter that they are paying his salary.    Their payroll still gets lowered by having his contract on another team doesn't it?

[scbalt52]

I must be one of the only ones who really doesn't think we lost much in these deals. Trey and Lopez were solid, sure. Lopez was about as good as a reclamation project could go. But I really don't view our chances at the playoffs this year differently. Maybe it went from a 10% chance to a 9. With a few call ups and maneuvering, we could actually end up increasing it, even with these trades. Plus, they're hopefully helping the future. 

[sportsfan8703]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has no value.  You need his innings the rest of the year with the injuries and inning limits on guys.

Lyles has a lot of "value".  He's still owed about 2.5 million this year and a 1 million buyout for next year.  I'm sure he's not traded till 5:58 pm, but I think he brings a Cashner type return.  

We're already playing for next year.  You're rotation is Watkins, Voth, Matt Harvey, Bradish, and Zimmerman.  Wells could come back.  Maybe Vallimont makes some starts.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Lyles has a lot of "value".  He's still owed about 2.5 million this year and a 1 million buyout for next year.  I'm sure he's not traded till 5:58 pm, but I think he brings a Cashner type return.  

We're already playing for next year.  You're rotation is Watkins, Voth, Matt Harvey, Bradish, and Zimmerman.  Wells could come back.  Maybe Vallimont makes some starts.  

Cashner return is basically no value.

[geschinger]

19 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

How long will it take for the O's to be a contender again?

2024.

Best case scenario is 2023 is like in Houston in 2015 - exceed expectations and sneak into playoffs but not really a contender.

But realistically if they stick to what I think the plan is next year they see what they have with all the prospects and then in the offseason after the 2023 season they start dipping into the inventory built up during all the losing to add pieces they think they need to legitimately contend.   

They've been executing a plan that is remarkably similar to the one Houston executed and I just don't see Elias making a significant divergence from that plan when (A) it's proven it can work and (B) it seems to be working in Baltimore.

[ScGO's]

A few things

I think the only other player that will potentially be moved is Anthony Santander.

I also believe that this isn't necessarily a full sell off by any means and the O's could still linger in the WC Race. Both players traded have prospects in the pipeline that can immediately replace them and could realistically match or exceed their outcome. Same goes for Santander

I don't think Hays or Mullins will be traded. Yes they do get raises next year, but I don't see anyone in the immediate pipeline that can come in and take their spots. They are also positive WAR contributors whose peak value may happen when someone in the pipeline is ready to come take their OF spot. I also see Hays and Mullins taking the torch from Trey and carrying the leadership/community ambassador role for awhile which is an important quality beyond analytics.

If there was one more player that could possibly be traded, it could be Tate, but that's only if Elias is confident that Krehbiel and Baker can establish themselves more as end of the bullpen guys. Or if he plans on bringing up a DL Hall to get BP innings, or if Tyler Wells returns in a bullpen role later this season. Its important to maintain pitching staff stability at the end of the season, even in the bullpen, so its entirely on Elias' confidence to replace Tate.

This is also why I believe Lyles will not be traded. I like the return on Mancini, but it also hints at how light a Lyles return would be.  He's more valuable burning up innings for us.

[sportsfan8703]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cashner return is basically no value.

Tons of value. Why pay 3.5 million for 60 games. 12 starts. If he stays healthy. He’s leading the league in starts. 
 

Why would you keep him?

[sportsfan8703]

Elias should be trying to trade Santander and Tate for the rumored package with the Mets. Robertson and the two pitching prospects. 

[RVAOsFan]

Sure is quiet, couple hours to go and no one's brothers friends cousin has seen a text message from someone in the warehouse or Santander hugging someone in the tunnel? What is going on here!

[jamalshw]

2 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Sure is quiet, couple hours to go and no one's brothers friends cousin has seen a text message from someone in the warehouse or Santander hugging someone in the tunnel? What is going on here!

If it's making you uncomfortable, I can make up something completely unsubstantiated. 

[RVAOsFan]

Just now, jamalshw said:

If it's making you uncomfortable, I can make up something completely unsubstantiated. 

I appreciate the offer but I already have a twitter account.

[Hank Scorpio]

2 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I appreciate the offer but I already have a twitter account.

I'm very sorry to hear that.