Elias speaks from Texas

[seak05]

Elias flew down to Texas to meet with members of the team, and he made some interesting comments in meeting with reporters 

Also apparently Grayson is throwing from 120ft, and he spoke to DL Hall this morning to say they were counting on him 

[NedFromYork]

That's awesome leadership and attention to culture.

[Gurgi]

Nice bunt by Mullins

[justD]

Need to see the other thread on this. 

[Roll Tide]

 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

 

But what is the plan?  I mean, I thought the plan was to build a consistent winner.  This year, they are WINNING!  They have an excellent farm system.  They have a ton of payroll flexibility.  
 

Is trading Lopez really helping with that long term plan?  Is it really crucial to add the players they did while hurting the team?  
 

It’s pretty easy to find these types of arms.  I mean, you can argue that the Phillies gave up as good, if not a better arm than Povich, for David Robertson.  These guys are always readily available.

Acquiring them isn’t some byproduct of rebuilding or anything else.  You likely could have just drafted 3 arms like Povich.  
 

I’m not saying he is some worthless player or that the package is filled with worthless players but i keep thinking that the point of being a GM is to win and here you are, winning, and you are going to trade a big reason why for guys who can’t help you for at least 2 years and quite frankly are likely to never help you.  
 

In starting to really wonder what Elias values here.  Is it winning or is it building a farm system.  Right now, it’s building a farm system.  That’s obvious.  Winning isn’t the priority in 2022.  He isn’t bringing up better players.  He still has bad players on the roster getting real playing time.  
 

They didn’t go out and get anyone.  Elias claims they tried but they failed.  Failure is all that matters.  Trying means nothing.  His recent quote is, they will try to sign players.  How reassuring is that to you guys?  
 

Ownership is in shambles.  Do we really think they are going to bring in anyone that matters?  He is all of a sudden going to start taking away from his precious farm system?  
 

[Daddy-O's]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But what is the plan?  I mean, I thought the plan was to build a consistent winner.  This year, they are WINNING!  They have an excellent farm system.  They have a ton of payroll flexibility.  
 

Is trading Lopez really helping with that long term plan?  Is it really crucial to add the players they did while hurting the team?  
 

It’s pretty easy to find these types of arms.  I mean, you can argue that the Phillies gave up as good, if not a better arm than Povich, for David Robertson.  These guys are always readily available.

Acquiring them isn’t some byproduct of rebuilding or anything else.  You likely could have just drafted 3 arms like Povich.  
 

I’m not saying he is some worthless player or that the package is filled with worthless players but i keep thinking that the point of being a GM is to win and here you are, winning, and you are going to trade a big reason why for guys who can’t help you for at least 2 years and quite frankly are likely to never help you.  
 

In starting to really wonder what Elias values here.  Is it winning or is it building a farm system.  Right now, it’s building a farm system.  That’s obvious.  Winning isn’t the priority in 2022.  He isn’t bringing up better players.  He still has bad players on the roster getting real playing time.  
 

They didn’t go out and get anyone.  Elias claims they tried but they failed.  Failure is all that matters.  Trying means nothing.  His recent quote is, they will try to sign players.  How reassuring is that to you guys?  
 

Ownership is in shambles.  Do we really think they are going to bring in anyone that matters?  He is all of a sudden going to start taking away from his precious farm system?  
 

Fan Graphs gives the Orioles a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs.  I think Elias and his team have come to the same conclusion and have decided not to invest.  He is a numbers guy and will not stray.  He will make vague statements about supporting this team and fly down to Texas to pat them on the back but he has no intention of helping the major league team until the numbers say otherwise.

[osfan83]

2 minutes ago, Daddy-O's said:

Fan Graphs gives the Orioles a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs.  I think Elias and his team have come to the same conclusion and have decided not to invest.  He is a numbers guy and will not stray.  He will make vague statements about supporting this team and fly down to Texas to pat them on the back but he has no intention of helping the major league team until the numbers say otherwise.

What do you think Fan Graphs % to make the playoffs for the Orioles will be for 2023? If it's less than 10% in April do we go for it, or continue to build the farm system? 

[Daddy-O's]

I think statistical projections carry more weight in August then they do in April

2 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

What do you think Fan Graphs % to make the playoffs for the Orioles will be for 2023? If it's less than 10% in April do we go for it, or continue to build the farm system? 

 

[Sports Guy]

54 minutes ago, Daddy-O's said:

Fan Graphs gives the Orioles a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs.  I think Elias and his team have come to the same conclusion and have decided not to invest.  He is a numbers guy and will not stray.  He will make vague statements about supporting this team and fly down to Texas to pat them on the back but he has no intention of helping the major league team until the numbers say otherwise.

Listen, I don’t think they make the playoffs this year either partly because they decided not to do anything in the offseason and failed to make moves this deadline.

That said, I’m speaking more about the idea that you are winning and you are now in position for sustained winning.  I don’t care about dealing Mancini (who helps you win now) but I have an issue with Lopez.  The pen has been our best weapon and he is a big part of that.  More than that though, Lopez will be worth more later and/or he helps you win next year too.  
 

If we had added a top prospect to go along with things, that’s different.  But to value this package over Lopez now and Lopez later is wrong imo.  
 

And even if you get away from this deal, he is keeping good players in the minors.  He is keeping bad players on the ML roster and they are playing a lot.  That is not prioritizing winning.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Sports Guy

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

But what is the plan?  I mean, I thought the plan was to build a consistent winner.  This year, they are WINNING!  They have an excellent farm system.  They have a ton of payroll flexibility.  
 

Is trading Lopez really helping with that long term plan?  Is it really crucial to add the players they did while hurting the team?  
 

It’s pretty easy to find these types of arms.  I mean, you can argue that the Phillies gave up as good, if not a better arm than Povich, for David Robertson.  These guys are always readily available.

Acquiring them isn’t some byproduct of rebuilding or anything else.  You likely could have just drafted 3 arms like Povich.  
 

I’m not saying he is some worthless player or that the package is filled with worthless players but i keep thinking that the point of being a GM is to win and here you are, winning, and you are going to trade a big reason why for guys who can’t help you for at least 2 years and quite frankly are likely to never help you.  
 

In starting to really wonder what Elias values here.  Is it winning or is it building a farm system.  Right now, it’s building a farm system.  That’s obvious.  Winning isn’t the priority in 2022.  He isn’t bringing up better players.  He still has bad players on the roster getting real playing time.  
 

They didn’t go out and get anyone.  Elias claims they tried but they failed.  Failure is all that matters.  Trying means nothing.  His recent quote is, they will try to sign players.  How reassuring is that to you guys?  
 

Ownership is in shambles.  Do we really think they are going to bring in anyone that matters?  He is all of a sudden going to start taking away from his precious farm system?  
 

I hear you on Lopez.   I really depends on if Elias is right on Povich.  Elias says he is a top of the rotation starter.  If that is true he belongs in the O's top 10 prospects.    Jim Callis ranks Povich 26th.  The is a back end starter at best.  

Trading a closer for a top of the rotation starter is probably a good deal if we believe the rest of the pen is solid including Bautista, Perez, Tate, Krehbiel, Baker, Akin, Vespi and they added Cano who may be ready soon.

So it kind of depends on who you believe.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, wildcard said:

I hear you on Lopez.   I really depends on if Elias is right on Povich.  Elias says he is a top of the rotation starter.  If that is true he belongs in the O's top 10 prospects.    Jim Callis ranks Povich 26th.  The is a back end starter at best.  

Trading a closer for a top of the rotation starter is probably a good deal if we believe the rest of the pen is solid including Bautista, Perez, Tate, Krehbiel, Baker, Akin, Vespi and they added Cano who may be ready soon.

So it kind of depends on who you believe.

Elias thinks he has that upside, not that he is.

OToH, who the hell knows if he actually believes that.  He has to be positive about these guys publicly for PR reasons.  
 

I have no doubt he likes him.  But that is irrelevant to me. Cade Povich and guys like him are always available in trades.   Maybe you are getting him before he reaches untouchable status.  That’s always possible.  Pitching prospects come out of nowhere a lot. But right now, he’s a readily available arm that has good upside but that’s not what you get for a higher echelon closer with a lot of service time left…not as your main piece.

[DirtyBird]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That said, I’m speaking more about the idea that you are winning and you are now in position for sustained winning.  

How are we in position for sustained winning with the starting pitching currently in the organization?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

How are we in position for sustained winning with the starting pitching currently in the organization?

Well you are winning right now in spite of it.

You have GRod coming back.  We will see on Hall.  Means at some point next year.

Wells has a chance to stay as a starter.

But you are in position because you have assets..money and players, to go get pitching.

[DirtyBird]

"winning right now in spite of it" is not "sustained winning"

G Rod is the only legit starting pitching prospect in the minor league system. He is currently injured/rehabbing. This happens with most pitchers, which is why you need depth.

Means is coming off TJ surgery - who knows what he will be like when he returns.

DL Hall - is very shaky, although talented. Not a guy I would rely on being a piece in the rotation.

What players do you think we have that will get us reliable, controllable starting pitching? You think positional players who aren't good enough to be starters on our big league team are going to bring us reliable starters?