Reminder of what Orioles did in August 2012 to try to win a playoff spot.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Did they?  I guess this site could be wrong, but they say the Astros' payroll was 30th in 2013 (51 wins), 30th in 2014 (70 wins), 29th in 2015 (86 wins), 30th in 2016 (84 wins), and 18th in 2017 (101 wins).  Total payroll went up from '13-15, was flat in '16 then up significantly in '17.

Where are the Orioles in this chronology?  I'd say they're somewhere in the '14-15 timeframe where the Astros were last or 2nd-to-last in the majors in payroll.

Anyway, if you want to use this as a record of deceit, sure, why not.

Oh so we are going by ranking compared to other teams and not expenditures?

So spending 40 million to finish 28th is more spendy then spending 60 million and finishing 29th?

The 2015 Astros that finished 29th in spending spent 70M, the 2016 Astros which finished last in spending spent 69 million.  Heck the 2014 team spent almost twice what the Orioles are spending this year.

 

[SteveA]

It's so funny... a widely held attitude around here about 5 or 6 months ago was that the rebuild was going too slowly, this team was far from contention, etc.

If you had told me then where the Orioles would be today, I would have said wow, I'll bet a lot of people would be praising Elias for the incredible turnaround and things happening faster than expected.   I would have  figured if we were significantly over .500 in mid to late August we'd be nominating Elias for Time Man of the Year.  

But here we are, and if anything, people are more negative on Elias after he has pulled off what he has so far this year!   

[ChuckS]

Just now, SteveA said:

It's so funny... a widely held attitude around here about 5 or 6 months ago was that the rebuild was going too slowly, this team was far from contention, etc.

If you had told me then where the Orioles would be today, I would have said wow, I'll bet a lot of people would be praising Elias for the incredible turnaround and things happening faster than expected.   I would have  figured if we were significantly over .500 in mid to late August we'd be nominating Elias for Time Man of the Year.  

But here we are, and if anything, people are more negative on Elias after he has pulled off what he has so far this year!   

I don’t think people are more negative on Elias than they were at the beginning of the season or last year.  I would argue the opposite.

But it’s one thing not to add to a team in need of improvement through trade or free agency. It’s another not to call up your own guys from Triple A when they are clear upgrades to your big league roster and could make all the difference between being in or out of the playoffs.

So it’s a new and different kind of frustration and one that many of us are having a difficult time understanding. 

[DrungoHazewood]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Oh so we are going by ranking compared to other teams and not expenditures?

So spending 40 million to finish 28th is more spendy then spending 60 million and finishing 29th?

The 2015 Astros that finished 29th in spending spent 70M, the 2016 Astros which finished last in spending spent 69 million.  Heck the 2014 team spent almost twice what the Orioles are spending this year.

 

Feel free to frame it however it makes the Orioles look worst.

[maybenxtyr]

12 minutes ago, SteveA said:

It's so funny... a widely held attitude around here about 5 or 6 months ago was that the rebuild was going too slowly, this team was far from contention, etc.

If you had told me then where the Orioles would be today, I would have said wow, I'll bet a lot of people would be praising Elias for the incredible turnaround and things happening faster than expected.   I would have  figured if we were significantly over .500 in mid to late August we'd be nominating Elias for Time Man of the Year.  

But here we are, and if anything, people are more negative on Elias after he has pulled off what he has so far this year!   

I don't think the group is all that large. Most folks are enjoying what has happened this year and would like to see a couple of guys that could help out get an opportunity. 

 

There shouldn't be any doubt that he's done a great job as the head of the team. There's just a couple of tweaks that I would like to see. 

[ScGO's]

I think the rebuild is right on time. I hope the O's can pull it out, but I feel like we just don't have the depth or top tier talent to catch up.  Again, maybe these young guys join us in a couple weeks and we pull off another 10 game winning streak.  Even if they don't win a WC spot, I hope they are competitive and we see bright spots in the young guys.

[Just Regular]

One note on next week as we pass the magic date...I have a feeling Stowers could run ~10 days ahead of Gunnar.

Stowers can be one of the 26 (later, 28) guys all 5.5 weeks and he will probably play like ~50-75% of the games and not threaten 130 at-bats.

Gunnar I expect to play hopefully nearly everyday, and even with some projected walks, 35 games could be plenty to get 130 at-bats.    I think risk management wise the Club will opt to avoid the possible pickle if he starts his career all Trevor Story or Jeremy Pena like next week, and then entering games 158-162 he has 115 at-bats and a .900 OPS.    A few years back you could anonymously sit Austin Hays in game 161 or 162, but this year with some luck those games will be higher profile. 

If nothing else Toronto in games 160-162 at OPACY will probably still be competing in the AL4-AL5-AL6 race, and I believe the AL4 vs. AL5 winner gets the All 3 Games home field advantage.

[StottyByNature]

I think the calculus here is fairly simple.  Is it worth burning a year of a top prospect to attempt to strike while the opportunity is here, albeit with a flawed roster?  Or do we exercise restraint, understanding that while nothing is guaranteed, the "window" being a year longer with a more complete team may result in greater chances of reaching the ultimate goal?

Elias has chosen the latter and I respect his discipline and commitment to his plan.  It has obviously worked so far.  I completely understand the former as the future is always an unknown no matter how well laid the plans may be.  A bird in hand and all that.  But, do we really think we have the horses (especially the #1 starter) to feel reasonably confident in a single-elimination format?  The playoffs should not be the goal, the World Series is.  Our chances are much greater when we have aligned as many of the pieces as possible first and then make a multi-year run at it.

[SteveA]

7 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

I think the calculus here is fairly simple.  Is it worth burning a year of a top prospect to attempt to strike while the opportunity is here, albeit with a flawed roster?  Or do we exercise restraint, understanding that while nothing is guaranteed, the "window" being a year longer with a more complete team may result in greater chances of reaching the ultimate goal?

Elias has chosen the latter and I respect his discipline and commitment to his plan.  It has obviously worked so far.  I completely understand the former as the future is always an unknown no matter how well laid the plans may be.  A bird in hand and all that.  But, do we really think we have the horses (especially the #1 starter) to feel reasonably confident in a single-elimination format?  The playoffs should not be the goal, the World Series is.  Our chances are much greater when we have aligned as many of the pieces as possible first and then make a multi-year run at it.

Do you think those are the only factors he is considering?

Or do you think that he has certain benchmarks -- which are unknown to us -- that he wants guys to complete at AAA before being promoted?    And he is sticking to THAT regardless of the pennant race.    That's a little different than just thinking about years of control, extra draft picks, etc and weighing that against competing this year.

Now you can argue his benchmarks are too strict... other teams promote guys faster, and he has constantly slow played our top prospects more than most want.    But to me, having some sort of minor league development plan that he won't deviate from for legitimate prospects is just as believable as it being all about service time, draft picks, etc.

I'm not saying I agree with slow playing prospects, just that perhaps it isn't all about service time games.   We know, for example, that the team in Aberdeen is treated as sort of a lab where guys work on things.   Maybe he has development goals that have to be met at each level before moving a guy up.   I know Gunnar is killing it at Norfolk but I'm not talking about statistical outcome goals as much as working on specifice things for a specific amount of time or showing the coaches mastery of things in a way not measured by outcome-based stats.

I don't know, just putting that out there.   I know Can and others think it's all about the service time.   But I wonder if there isn't more.   Clearly he slow plays the top prospects more than most other teams do.

 

[Sports Guy]

55 minutes ago, SteveA said:

It's so funny... a widely held attitude around here about 5 or 6 months ago was that the rebuild was going too slowly, this team was far from contention, etc.

If you had told me then where the Orioles would be today, I would have said wow, I'll bet a lot of people would be praising Elias for the incredible turnaround and things happening faster than expected.   I would have  figured if we were significantly over .500 in mid to late August we'd be nominating Elias for Time Man of the Year.  

But here we are, and if anything, people are more negative on Elias after he has pulled off what he has so far this year!   

Do you think Elias has done everything he could to make this team better and more sustainable over the past month?

Edited August 19, 2022 by Sports Guy

[NCRaven]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you think Elias has done everything he could to make this team better and more sustainable over the past month?

He certainly didn't add to the current major league roster at the deadline.  But, I think that the additions of Povich and Seth Johnson help to make the team more sustainable in the future.  The promotion of Rutschman was earlier than the past month (an arbitrary date to be sure) but it has made the current team much better.  Hopefully, Stowers will help, as well.  The injuries to Rodriguez and Wells didn't help and weren't Elias's fault.

You can make an argument for adding ML talent at the deadline.  Elias has said that they tried.  If that's true, he obviously didn't get an offer that he considered fair value for what they would have needed to give up.  I'd like to see Gunnar and hope he'll be up soon, i.e., after the 23rd.  I "hope" that Wells will make it back.  There are still improvements to be made that will help if this group can stay close for a bit longer.

[SteveA]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you think Elias has done everything he could to make this team better and more sustainable over the past month?

Probably not.   But of course you didn't think did what he needed to do to make the team competitive in 2022, you said that loudly and frequently.   And obviously you were dead wrong, and you have never once admitted it, but just plowed ahead with more criticism of what appears to be an incredibly successful rebuild that is succeeding beyond what most of us hoped for.

Some people were following blindly and saying they trusted the plan when the team was struggling, and that was a difficult statement to make.   But now that the plan seems to be a resounding success, I think perhaps Elias deserves a bit more respect than he is getting from this board right now, or at least a vocal portion of it.

The automatic assumption that Henderson would drastically improve the team isn't necessarily true.   OBVIOUSLY he is better than Nevin, whom he would probably replace on the roster.   But the question is would he be better than the peopele who he would actually be taking playing time away from (maybe Urias, maybe Mateo, maybe Odor).   Because even though he'd be taking Nevin's spot on the roster, he wouldn't be replacing Nevin's role of a 1-to-2 day a week spot player.   Maybe he would be an improvement over those guys who have had ups and downs but have gotten us where we are today.   I don't think it's 100% given.

[StottyByNature]

31 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Do you think those are the only factors he is considering?

Or do you think that he has certain benchmarks -- which are unknown to us -- that he wants guys to complete at AAA before being promoted?    And he is sticking to THAT regardless of the pennant race.    That's a little different than just thinking about years of control, extra draft picks, etc and weighing that against competing this year.

Now you can argue his benchmarks are too strict... other teams promote guys faster, and he has constantly slow played our top prospects more than most want.    But to me, having some sort of minor league development plan that he won't deviate from for legitimate prospects is just as believable as it being all about service time, draft picks, etc.

I'm not saying I agree with slow playing prospects, just that perhaps it isn't all about service time games.   We know, for example, that the team in Aberdeen is treated as sort of a lab where guys work on things.   Maybe he has development goals that have to be met at each level before moving a guy up.   I know Gunnar is killing it at Norfolk but I'm not talking about statistical outcome goals as much as working on specifice things for a specific amount of time or showing the coaches mastery of things in a way not measured by outcome-based stats.

I don't know, just putting that out there.   I know Can and others think it's all about the service time.   But I wonder if there isn't more.   Clearly he slow plays the top prospects more than most other teams do.

 

I think it can be both, meaning, he has his benchmarks for each level and once that last one is reached he then looks at service time.  For example, I think Henderson's progression this year has been more rapid than anyone anticipated.  The plan was probably for him to be in AA and then hopefully graduate to AAA next year.  He has exceeded that and seems fairly obviously "ready" (although none of us are privy to the specific benchmarks.).  At that point it would seem to make sense to start measuring service time manipulation versus immediate impact on the team.

[Sports Guy]

39 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Probably not.   But of course you didn't think did what he needed to do to make the team competitive in 2022, you said that loudly and frequently.   And obviously you were dead wrong, and you have never once admitted it, but just plowed ahead with more criticism of what appears to be an incredibly successful rebuild that is succeeding beyond what most of us hoped for.

Some people were following blindly and saying they trusted the plan when the team was struggling, and that was a difficult statement to make.   But now that the plan seems to be a resounding success, I think perhaps Elias deserves a bit more respect than he is getting from this board right now, or at least a vocal portion of it.

The automatic assumption that Henderson would drastically improve the team isn't necessarily true.   OBVIOUSLY he is better than Nevin, whom he would probably replace on the roster.   But the question is would he be better than the peopele who he would actually be taking playing time away from (maybe Urias, maybe Mateo, maybe Odor).   Because even though he'd be taking Nevin's spot on the roster, he wouldn't be replacing Nevin's role of a 1-to-2 day a week spot player.   Maybe he would be an improvement over those guys who have had ups and downs but have gotten us where we are today.   I don't think it's 100% given.

Yes, you are right.  Myself, basically everyone on here and everyone in the world didn’t see the Orioles as contenders.  Yep, you got me!

And btw, if they had done more in the offseason or during the year, maybe they would actually be easily into the playoffs instead of hoping to sneak in.

You are whining that people aren’t giving Elias respect, which is completely absurd and a really dumb thing to say.

What people are saying, since the team is surprising everyone and winning that he should be doing more.  That maybe he doesn’t trade guys.  Maybe he calls guys up earlier, etc…that’s not giving him respect?  That’s absurd.  That’s people wanting to win and make the playoffs.  
 

And sure, as has been said a million times, there are no sure things.  But if you have an ounce of knowledge and ability to judge talent, you would know that greatly increasing the talent with Stowers (now up) and Henderson and playing them everyday greatly increases the talent of the team, which gives them a better chance at winning.  This isn’t a difficult concept to figure..at least for most people.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

47 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

He certainly didn't add to the current major league roster at the deadline.  But, I think that the additions of Povich and Seth Johnson help to make the team more sustainable in the future.  The promotion of Rutschman was earlier than the past month (an arbitrary date to be sure) but it has made the current team much better.  Hopefully, Stowers will help, as well.  The injuries to Rodriguez and Wells didn't help and weren't Elias's fault.

You can make an argument for adding ML talent at the deadline.  Elias has said that they tried.  If that's true, he obviously didn't get an offer that he considered fair value for what they would have needed to give up.  I'd like to see Gunnar and hope he'll be up soon, i.e., after the 23rd.  I "hope" that Wells will make it back.  There are still improvements to be made that will help if this group can stay close for a bit longer.

So Seth Johnson, who is out for over a year and likely won’t be able to go full blast until 2025 at the earliest is a key to us contending long term?  Really?

I mean, I loved that trade and glad they did it but that’s going way overboard.