Kyle Stowers called up

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

30 teams x 3 outfielders = 90 starting outfielders.  So at 55/64, he’s a slightly below average starting OF this year.  Which is pretty much exactly what his WAR would tell you even if you hadn’t given those numbers.  

Last year he was 45th, so pretty much exactly average for a starting OF.  rWAR liked him a little better than that.

So then the question is, what is he next year at 27 years old?   Better, worse, the same?   Is his second half decline the result of lingering injuries, or the pitchers making adjustments and him not adjusting back, or just one of those random fluctuations that happens over 162 games?   Look at Mancini, who had a poor year at age 26 after a good rookie season, then had his best year at age 27.   You just don’t know exactly how these things will go.  I could easily see Hays having a 4+ WAR season next year, or he could play poorly and be relegated to the bench.   
 

 

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

30 teams x 3 outfielders = 90 starting outfielders.  So at 55/64, he’s a slightly below average starting OF this year.  Which is pretty much exactly what his WAR would tell you even if you hadn’t given those numbers.  

Last year he was 45th, so pretty much exactly average for a starting OF.  rWAR liked him a little better than that.

So then the question is, what is he next year at 27 years old?   Better, worse, the same?   Is his second half decline the result of lingering injuries, or the pitchers making adjustments and him not adjusting back, or just one of those random fluctuations that happens over 162 games?   Look at Mancini, who had a poor year at age 26 after a good rookie season, then had his best year at age 27.   You just don’t know exactly how these things will go.  I could easily see Hays having a 4+ WAR season next year, or he could play poorly and be relegated to the bench.   
 

I actually think Hays can produce a higher WAR if he gives you 350 at bats vs 550.

But the defense is declining and that’s an issue for him.

I don’t how you can say he could easily be a 4+ WAR guy.  That would be pretty shocking imo.  You are basically saying he will double his career output in one season.  It certainly can happen but it would be pretty shocking if it did.  That would mean not only has he stayed healthy and hit at a level he hasn’t before but also the defense gets better.  I know you love the guy, so I think that emotion is getting the best of you here.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, no. Remember, WAR is a counting stat and how much you play matters.

Hays is 25th in PA amongst OFers.

Take a guy like McKenna. He has a 1 WAR, not far from Hays but he has 30% the PA Hays does.  Keirmaier is .3 WAR away and has less than half the PA. Brantley is .2 WAR away in half the PA.  These are just a few examples.

So, there is more to it than just the number.  I think he’s a borderline starting OFer and should be a 4th OFer because he’s just not reliable.  He shouldn’t be a guy you are depending on.

Well, yeah, but presumably major league front offices and managers are playing their best players the most.  The reason Hays has more ABs than McKenna for instance is because he's a better option.

I won't dispute your take on Hays.  I'm higher on him than you are, but I don'tn think your take is unreasonable, just that's it's extremely pessimistic.

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, RZNJ said:

How did he make them look tougher?  First one was a line drive fly over his head.  Made a nice back hand outstretched catch.  In the 9th, he was getting close to the wall and went into a slide and never took his eye off the ball.  Excellent catch. Last out was a catch on the run and he went into a slide like all outfielders.   He deserves credit for 3 nice plays, not some faint praise like he turned ordinary plays into tough looking catches.

Well, as I pointed out in the other thread, baseball savant actually tracks all that stuff and while the last catch was a 2-star catch (90% success rate expected), the other in the corner was a 95%. At 90 and 95%, you would not expect a slide/dive catch for most outfielders.

But let's dig into more. I was looked at his defense very closely yesterday and noticed his poor reaction (-1.8)  and burst (-2.2) and feet covered at 28.8 ft/sec were all pretty terrible. I went and looked today and he actually lost reaction (-2.0) and burst (-2.4) and feet covered/sec (28.4) after yesterday's game including the two catches in the 9th.

So while he was effective in catching everything hit his way, it's fair to say he made the catches looked harder than they should have been. 

To be fair, Stowers has rated a 0 OAA in RF making him average, and after his 90% catch last night, he actually has a 92% success rate but has had most of his problems in LF where he's struggling to go to his right on flyballs and has been -2 OAA, mostly from that one terrible read where he didn't get to the ball in Washington for a double. 

So despite his bad jump and feet/covered numbers, he's been effective out in RF success wise.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I actually think Hays can produce a higher WAR if he gives you 350 at bats vs 550.

But the defense is declining and that’s an issue for him.

I don’t how you can say he could easily be a 4+ WAR guy.  That would be pretty shocking imo.  You are basically saying he will double his career output in one season.  It certainly can happen but it would be pretty shocking if it did.  That would mean not only has he stayed healthy and hit at a level he hasn’t before but also the defense gets better.  I know you love the guy, so I think that emotion is getting the best of you here.

No, I don’t think emotion is a part of it.  I’d say it of lots of players who haven’t done it yet.   Hays was worth 2.0 rWAR in the second half of last season.   He was worth 2.4 rWAR in the first half of this season.  That’s 4.4 rWAR over 162 games.  Now, could he do all that in the same season?   I think it’s possible.  As I said, it’s also possible he’s on the bench. It’s just been my experience watching baseball for 55+ years that players have a  lot of peaks and valleys.   They’re not metronomes, unless you’re Eddie Murray.   

Now, I do wonder why Hays’ defense seemed to deteriorate a bit.  In the first half, he played really well I thought, even though some of the advanced metrics didn’t agree.  The second half, he’s seemed a step slower and less certain of himself.   Could be nagging injuries as some have speculated, could just be wearing down over 162 games.  

As to your comment that Hays might produce more value in 350 at bats than 550, I certainly won’t dismiss that out of hand.  We’ll see what options Hyde has next spring and how he deploys them.  
 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, I don’t think emotion is a part of it.  I’d say it of lots of players who haven’t done it yet.   Hays was worth 2.0 rWAR in the second half of last season.   He was worth 2.4 rWAR in the first half of this season.  That’s 4.4 rWAR over 162 games.  Now, could he do all that in the same season?   I think it’s possible.  As I said, it’s also possible he’s on the bench. It’s just been my experience watching baseball for 55+ years that players have a  lot of peaks and valleys.   They’re not metronomes, unless you’re Eddie Murray.   

Now, I do wonder why Hays’ defense seemed to deteriorate a bit.  In the first half, he played really well I thought, even though some of the advanced metrics didn’t agree.  The second half, he’s seemed a step slower and less certain of himself.   Could be nagging injuries as some have speculated, could just be wearing down over 162 games.  

As to your comment that Hays might produce more value in 350 at bats than 550, I certainly won’t dismiss that out of hand.  We’ll see what options Hyde has next spring and how he deploys them.  
 

It’s not that he can’t do it.  Steve Pearce did it.  It’s your use of the word “easily”.  That’s a bit much.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, no. Remember, WAR is a counting stat and how much you play matters.

Hays is 25th in PA amongst OFers.

Take a guy like McKenna. He has a 1 WAR, not far from Hays but he has 30% the PA Hays does.  Keirmaier is .3 WAR away and has less than half the PA. Brantley is .2 WAR away in half the PA.  These are just a few examples.

So, there is more to it than just the number.  I think he’s a borderline starting OFer and should be a 4th OFer because he’s just not reliable.  He shouldn’t be a guy you are depending on.

Well, I see your point, but I don’t think you can go strictly by WAR/PA in all cases.   Specifically, I think McKenna benefits from the way he is used, and would do far worse than Hays in a starting OF role.  Brantley and Kiermaier are another story.   

Of course, you’ve suggested that Hays might produce more WAR/PA if he played less.  As I said, I’m open to that idea.  
 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I see your point, but I don’t think you can go strictly by WAR/PA in all cases.   Specifically, I think McKenna benefits from the way he is used, and would do far worse than Hays in a starting OF role.  Brantley and Kiermaier are another story.   

Of course, you’ve suggested that Hays might produce more WAR/PA if he played less.  As I said, I’m open to that idea.  
 

That’s the true but my point is that you can’t look at his WAR and immediately assume he is a starting OFer just because of the ranking.  
 

There is more to it than that.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Sports Guy

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, Brooks The Great said:

And I think Stowers' minor league track indicates that he'd be more productive than Hays has been if Stowers were to be given everyday at bats.

“More productive than Hays has been,” in terms of how Hays has played over the last 60 games? Sure. Pretty much anyone could be better than Hays has been since the very end of June, and Stowers’s MiL track record does indicate he’d likely manage better than a .581 OPS, so I would have to agree with you there. 

But when you think about other players whose track record would suggest they’re going to post better than a .581 OPS? Austin Hays. We’re talking about a guy who, immediately prior to cratering in July, had posted a combined slash line of .274/.325/.478/.803 over his last 200+ MLB games (from September 2020 to June 2022). Which, as track records go, is more impressive than anything Stowers or Vavra has ever done. And it’s absolutely not clear that either would out-produce that version of Austin Hays.

So it’s a weird position Hyde and Elias have been in, and I can at least understand why their choice has been to stand pat and stick with Hays through this parched desert of a drought. That a 26-year-old guy would post nearly 1.5 full seasons of an .800+ OPS and then suddenly collapse to become Rougned Odor’s slightly less potent twin for a couple months is — unexpected. Given that he was clearly battling through significant pain for the team’s benefit when the floor disappeared on him, I can see why they’d probably want to give him some significant time to right the ship. 

At this point, I’d probably just shut him down for the season. He’s had a decent last 10 days or so, and he can walk away feeling positive about a little uptick (especially in the BB-taking department). Give him a chance to rest his body and give these kids a full-scale shot to try to show out and set themselves up for next spring. 

[Just Regular]

Hays 2022 has basically become Santander 2021.

On weak 2021-2022 type teams, compromised decent regulars get to keep their jobs like they are Cal Ripken or Adam Jones, in part because there's no one better.    Sure, 3-win guy, go right ahead and have a replacement half season.

Anecdotally, I think in the second half Hays benefitted from that awful at Detroit series early when both he and Mountcastle had short-term things.     Those lineups were pathetic.     Next year the depth will be deeper, and I hope Elias-Hyde are more proactive when stuff happens.     

The ballplayer's in season to offseason sequence of "I'm good, Skip", "I'm good, Skip", "I was hurt." is a classic.    I'm sure we'll hear a remix sometime soon.

Clubs aspiring to climb the Dodgers scale have to grow their ruthlessness on stuff like this.    

Like Santander, I feel the Austin Hays glass is mostly full, and am interested to see him as a down lineup regular opening next season.     He'd better clearly outplay Kyle Stowers and the Phillips/McKenna 5th outfielder platoon while Cowser puts on the finishing touches though.

33. Fri,5/13 at DET L (2-4)#	Mullins-CF	Mateo-SS	Mancini-DH	Santander-RF	Nevin-1B	Odor-2B	Bannon-3B	Chirinos-C	Owings-LF
34. Sat,5/14 at DET L (0-3)	Mullins-CF	Mancini-DH	Santander-RF	Urias-3B	Odor-2B	Nevin-1B	McKenna-LF	Bemboom-C	Owings-SS
35. Sun,5/15 at DET L (1-5)#	Mullins-CF	Urias-2B	Mancini-1B	Santander-RF	Mateo-SS	Nevin-3B	McKenna-LF	Chirinos-C	Bannon-DH

[emmett16]

That HR last night looked like a 4 iron tee shot.  

[Hank Scorpio]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, as I pointed out in the other thread, baseball savant actually tracks all that stuff and while the last catch was a 2-star catch (90% success rate expected), the other in the corner was a 95%. At 90 and 95%, you would not expect a slide/dive catch for most outfielders.

But let's dig into more. I was looked at his defense very closely yesterday and noticed his poor reaction (-1.8)  and burst (-2.2) and feet covered at 28.8 ft/sec were all pretty terrible. I went and looked today and he actually lost reaction (-2.0) and burst (-2.4) and feet covered/sec (28.4) after yesterday's game including the two catches in the 9th.

So while he was effective in catching everything hit his way, it's fair to say he made the catches looked harder than they should have been. 

To be fair, Stowers has rated a 0 OAA in RF making him average, and after his 90% catch last night, he actually has a 92% success rate but has had most of his problems in LF where he's struggling to go to his right on flyballs and has been -2 OAA, mostly from that one terrible read where he didn't get to the ball in Washington for a double. 

So despite his bad jump and feet/covered numbers, he's been effective out in RF success wise.

1st base!!!!!!

[Spy Fox]

Take on Stowers from last week's Eric Longenhagen chat at Fangraphs:

Quote

April Stowers: Kyle Stowers is getting a taste of the bigs. Does he look like more than a 4th OF to you?

Eric A Longenhagen: He does not, but that 4th OF/platoon guy is a hugely important role player. Still think he’ll mash righties enough to have a long, important big league career.

 

[Moose Milligan]

LMAO, Eric Longenhagen didn't care that "April Stowers" was the one that asked that question, he just straight up told her that he doesn't look like more than a 4th outfielder and then tried to sugarcoat it.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

LMAO, Eric Longenhagen didn't care that "April Stowers" was the one that asked that question, he just straight up told her that he doesn't look like more than a 4th outfielder and then tried to sugarcoat it.

I wouldn’t interpret that name as suggesting any family relation to Stowers.  These Fangraphs readers frequently adopt pen names relating to the player they are asking about.  Sometimes they even sign in under the player’s name and phrase their questions in the first person. 

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

LMAO, Eric Longenhagen didn't care that "April Stowers" was the one that asked that question, he just straight up told her that he doesn't look like more than a 4th outfielder and then tried to sugarcoat it.

I thought April Stowers brought May flowers.