The Pitching Prospects

[Frobby]

I was just looking at Tony’s last power rankings to remind myself who the top pitching prospects are.   Here’s the list and where they currently sit in the power rankings.  

2.  Grayson Rodriguez - dominant in AAA but rehabbing from a lat strain that has sidelined him for 2.5 months.  

4. DL Hall - flashes dominance in AAA but struggles mightily with command at times.  

15. Cade Povich - Twins 2021 3rd rounder acquired in the Lopez trade.  The 21-year old had two dominant performances for Aberdeen and then a solid debut at Bowie.  

16. Seth Johnson - Rays 2019 supplemental 1st rounder (40th overall), acquired in the three-way Mancini trade, was doing well in HiA at 23 but just underwent TJ surgery and may not pitch in 2023.  

17.  Carter Baumler - Drafted in 2020, underwent TJ surgery and looked good at Delmarva but was shut down with shoulder issues after only 11.2 innings.  

21. Chayce McDermott - 23-year old Astros 2021 4th rounder acquired in the Mancini trade, he was recently promoted to Bowie and has struggled with commend and been hit hard there in two starts.   The promotion may have been premature IMO.

24.  Noah Denoyer - an undrafted free agent, the 24-year old debuted in 2021 and made it as far as Bowie this year, pitching mostly long relief but also as a starter.  Was shut down briefly and should be back at Bowie soon.

29.  Drew Rom - the 22-year old 2018 4th rounder has progressed steadily through our system and had a solid debut in AAA last week after a solid though unspectacular year at Bowie.  Has been younger than average wherever he’s pitched.

30.  Michael Baumann - the 26-year old 2017 3rd rounder has been inconsistent in a mix of starting and relief at Norfolk, as well as in 12 innings of relief in Baltimore.

31. Justin Armbruester - a 23-year old 2021 12th rounder, he’s done a solid job at Aberdeen and then Bowie this year, displaying excellent BB rates and solid K rates.

33.  Nick Vespi - 26 year old 2015 18th round pick.  Very dominant at Norfolk this year, but inconsistent in Baltimore.  AAA lefties literally couldn’t hit him (0 for 29), but have an .865 OPS against him in the majors.

34. Juan De Los Santos - a 20-year old international signee (19 by “baseball age”), he’s had a solid year at Delmarva as a starter and should move up to Aberdeen next year  

38. Juan Rojas - an 18-year old international signee acquired in the Lopez trade, Rojas had thrown well in the FCL, throwing to a 2.79 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9.   

40. Jean Pinto - this 21-year old international signee acquired in the Jose Iglesias has had a solid year at Aberdeen but walk rates are a bit up from last year.  Has been limited to 4-5 inning outings.

Bubble: Luis De Leon - 19 year old showing big K rates in the DSL

Bubble: Ryan Watson - 24-year old undrafted free agent had a solid year at Bowie and got promoted to Norfolk recently.

Bubble: Yennier Cano - 28-year old former Twins signee out of Cuba acquired in the Lopez trade, Cano struggled initially for Norfolk but has looked better in his last three outings.

Bubble: Ignacio Feliz - a 22-year old former international signee we picked up after he was released, Feliz has piled up impressive strikeout totals for Aberdeen, mostly in long relief, but struggles with command.  Certainly an interesting arm.

There are a few pitchers not listed in the Power Rankings who are interesting to me:

Zach Peek - had a solid year at Aberdeen and Bowie before needing TJ surgery the same day as Seth Johnson.

Brandon Young - was doing well for Bowie but was shut down with some kind of injury, not sure what.

Deivi Cruz - 18 year old promoted to Delmarva and holding his own there.

Overall impressions: Rodriguez is a stud, but there’s a lot of question marks with everyone behind him.  Granted, we have a top-ranked overall system, but it’s pretty concerning to see only two pitchers in our top 10, five in our top 20, nine in our top 30.   

Personally, I’m higher on Rom, Armbruester, Pinto and Cruz than the Power Rankings reflect.   I always like the guys who perform well at levels where they are younger than average, even if their stuff isn’t overwhelming.   

[oh-wee-ohs]

I wonder if they are having Chayce work on some things and that's why he's had some issues at AA. Different grips, larger percentage of off speed, etc etc

[LookinUp]

Outside of Rodriguez and maybe Baumann, it's a list that still needs to mature. The rankings will change a lot over time.

We need to hope that a couple of these guys take major steps forward so they can be a future #2/3. I do think we can be comfortable in knowing we have a lot of guys who can eventually be back end of the rotation types.

[Sports Guy]

It’s a bad list.  No doubt.  

[RZNJ]

It's not a super impressive list.   Again, my feeling is that within the next 2 years, we are going to see some interesting arms emerge from the Latin program.   There are a ton of raw arms that were force fed to Delmarva and the FCL and a bunch more signed this year and in the DSL program.

Unfortunately, I can only see numbers and it's impossible to know which ones have great arms but need refinement.   Moises Chace and Raul Rangel and mostly a lost year this year but both are potential top 20 type of guys along with Del Los Santos.   I watched Jeffrey Portes last night a bit.   Looks like he throws hard but not much else.   Alejandro Mendez is a Felix Bautista type who has a big arm but no command/control reliver only type.   There's a guy named Solano, a 6'6" pitcher who really struggled in FCL but had some moments.   Gut feeling is that's he's a somebody.

Baumler's shoulder injury is a concern as well.   Not much to hang our hat on right now.

[Aristotelian]

Would anyone here not trade DL Hall for Colton Cowser right now? I think 4 is generous for him. 

It is certainly a weaker group than our position players. Getting back Povich as the top prospect in our trade deadline moves I think is an indicator that Elias understands this. Fortunately we have tremendous payroll flexibility as well as assets to trade. 

We do have a decent group of young pitchers at the MLB level, including Kremer, Akin, Wells, and Bradish. I believe everyone other than Lyles has multiple years of team control. I think Povich has some potential to exceed his ranking and I like Rom and Denoyer as potential value guys to be the next Voth/Watkins types. 

[CharmCityHokie]

3 hours ago, oh-wee-ohs said:

I wonder if they are having Chayce work on some things and that's why he's had some issues at AA. Different grips, larger percentage of off speed, etc etc

He's had control issues going back to college, where he had a BB/9 of 4.4 and 139 innings pitched had 7 wild pitches and 17 Hit-by-pitches. In the minors so far his BB/9 is 5.5 and he's racked up 16 wild pitches and 5 HBPs. I don't think this is a result of him working on something particular (though maybe they are, I have no idea), but it shouldn't be a surprise that he's been wild in AA, because that is his track record. 

[LookinUp]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s a bad list.  No doubt.  

In the spirit of John Means, Jorge Lopez, Felix Bautista and Tyler Wells, I don't think it's a bad list. The question is not whether these guys are capable of taking up pitching spots 4-13, it's whether a few can fill spots 1-3 over time, or be useful chips in a trade for such a guy.

[sportsfan8703]

Kyle Brnovich was looking good and made it to AAA before having TJ surgery this year.