Marlins Open to Trading from Pitching Surplus

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't see any O's CF near the majors that has the ability to replace Mullins without a big drop off.

Of course you don’t.

That said, even without outside help, the Os could have an OF next year of Cowser (and I’m assuming Cowser can’t play CF at a high enough level although he might be able to) and Stowers on the corners with McKenna and Phillips platooning in CF and Hays being your other OFer playing all 3 positions and getting time at DH.

Im guessing that is an overall improved OF with up defensive drop off in CF…and you have (in theory) used Mullins to improve your starting rotation.

[jabba72]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't see any O's CF near the majors that has the ability to replace Mullins without a big drop off.

McKenna and Cowser could fill in when he gets promoted next year. Fabian in 2 years maybe. 

[Jim'sKid26]

I think the two "untouchables" are actually the guys the O's should be targeting. Alcantara is the type of pitcher that moves the needle the most for the O's at a time when the window to compete is opening.  A package of established ML'ers and prospects could get it done and the O's have both. That's where I would start.

[Yardball85]

55 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Who is the replacement for Mountcastle?   I think he is currently losing his grip on a starting role.  I can see him demoted to start next season at AAA to work on his plate discipline if he does not turn it around in the next month.   

A free agent like Jose Abreu. 

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, vab said:

We got bats, they got arms - seems like a good match. It would probably be easier to list the folks I wouldn't give up for Lopez which would be Rutchsman, Henderson, G-Rod, Holliday and possibly Cowser. I think he would be a great piece going forward. 

+1, this would be my approach. Cowser would be on my list which means the deal probably falls apart like 99% of internet trade proposals, but you never know. 

[LookinUp]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I do think the Os trading froM their depth to acquire a top end starter is something they will and should be doing this offseason.

I don't think you target a Cease or Alcantara type without knowing you're giving up a real headliner in the deal. It would be Henderson, Holliday or GRod. I'm not even sure Cowser would be enough of a headliner.

I don't think you get those guys with Westburg, Mayo or Hall as a headliner. It would be interesting to see what we get in return for a package including one of Mateo/Westburg + Hall, and then like a Kjerstad.

[drdelaware]

I don't like the idea of trading Mullins at all.  He may not be 30-30 this year but I still like what he brings to the table.

[LTO's]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That said, even without outside help, the Os could have an OF next year of Cowser (and I’m assuming Cowser can’t play CF at a high enough level although he might be able to) and Stowers on the corners with McKenna and Phillips platooning in CF and Hays being your other OFer playing all 3 positions and getting time at DH.

McKenna/Phillips platoon is a clear downgrade from Mullins. I don't understand the fascination with trading Mullins when he's the second best player on the team. Guy is easily a top 10 CF in baseball. They should do the smart thing and keep the talent in the org and spend money on FA starter. Hays is the guy they should be moving on from and that's my guess as to who Cowser will replace. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, LTO's said:

McKenna/Phillips platoon is a clear downgrade from Mullins. I don't understand the fascination with trading Mullins when he's the second best player on the team. Guy is easily a top 10 CF in baseball. They should do the smart thing and keep the talent in the org and spend money on FA starter. Hays is the guy they should be moving on from and that's my guess as to who Cowser will replace. 

I’m not sure it’s a clear downgrade.  It’s not likely a downgrade defensively.

Offensively, I think a downgrade is likely but I also think they could be average or better as a platoon compared to the average CF OPS.

Now, with that said, the rest of your post is accurate.  The Orioles have a lot of ways they can go to build a win team.  Keeping Mullins is clearly one of those ways.

The issue is, how long do you expect Mullins to be a 2.5-4 WAR CFer who plays above average defense. Last year was clearly an aberration.  In his pro career, outside of 2021, he has struggled Vs LH pitching.  Speed generally peaks at a young age and that could start to decline some as well.

Mullins is not a guy I have any interest in giving a long term deal to.  That said, he definitely could be our best option for CF for the next 2-3 years and we could use other resources to bring in pitching.

For me, I would rather get ahead of what I feel is an inevitable drop off in production as he gets closer to 30, even if it is trading him a year too early.

[LTO's]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not sure it’s a clear downgrade.

It definitely is. I feel like your underrating Mullins offensive output pretty heavily. He's obviously not having the year he did last year but a  111 wRC+, 108 OPS+ and 30+ steals will play with elite defense. Phillips is basically unplayable and Mckenna isn't reaching that level. You can improve the team and maybe move Mullins from the leadoff spot but there's no reason to get out in front of something that may or may not happen 3-4 years down the line. I don't think his decline is going to happen during his rookie deal here. He's still in his prime and in terms of speed/defense I don't see any signs of this decline being particularly imminent. I wouldn't give him a long term deal either but you can't just take 4+ WAR out of your team and expect to replace it with a platoon of two below average regulars. 

[sportsfan8703]

2023 realistic replacements,

Mullins - none

Tate - Baker taking a step forward, or one of the current SP that goes to the pen when GR is added, and eventually Means.  

Santander - Rotational DH, Stowers, Vavra, Adley

Hays - Stowers, Vavra, Cowser post ASB

Mountcastle - Westburg, Adley, Vavra

 

I'm not saying we should replace all of these guys in one offseason.  However, I do not see them on the 2024 roster.  I don't think we'll trade them directly for MLB ready SP, but we'll take the best packages we can get of MILB'ers.  When we're ready to target a SP we will do so in a seperate/not complicated by moving these guys, type of deal that involves prospects.  

Or... we could just give Verlander big money over 2 years and keep our prospects.  Roll into next year with Verlander, Grayson, Wells, Kremer, and Voth.  Means at the ASB.  Then we could really try and go for a WS and buy another TOR SP next deadline with our wealth of hitting prospects.  

[Just Regular]

I feel like the 2023 lineup might be kind of set.    If Jorge Mateo stays the 2023 starting shortstop, I think Opening Day the Nine starting position players are clearly:

C Adley, 1B Mountcastle, 2B Westburg, SS Mateo, 3B Gunnar, LF/RF Cowser, CF Mullins, LF/RF Hays, DH Santander

<gap>

Urias, Vavra, a catcher, and take your pick of Stowers/McKenna for offense/defense in the OF4 position for the Bench.

Of course Elias will hunt arbitrage opportunities, but for 2023 I think I see some separation between Westburg/Cowser and Urias/Stowers for the two spots that are less clear.    I am trusting Ryan Mountcastle will circle the wagons well enough not to lose his job while still near MLB minimum salary.

September it will be interesting to see how Hyde/the Club allocate revolving DH time to Stowers/McKenna/Vavra as leading indicator for who might have best shot at a bigger 2023 role.

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course you don’t.

That said, even without outside help, the Os could have an OF next year of Cowser (and I’m assuming Cowser can’t play CF at a high enough level although he might be able to) and Stowers on the corners with McKenna and Phillips platooning in CF and Hays being your other OFer playing all 3 positions and getting time at DH.

Im guessing that is an overall improved OF with up defensive drop off in CF…and you have (in theory) used Mullins to improve your starting rotation.

That's a complete turnover in the outfield.    That usually doesn't happen, especially for a team that contended the year before.  We'll see.   I do expect a lot of turnover in both the infield and outfield, just not to that degree.

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, LTO&#x27;s said:

It definitely is. I feel like your underrating Mullins offensive output pretty heavily. He's obviously not having the year he did last year but a  111 wRC+, 108 OPS+ and 30+ steals will play with elite defense. Phillips is basically unplayable and Mckenna isn't reaching that level. You can improve the team and maybe move Mullins from the leadoff spot but there's no reason to get out in front of something that may or may not happen 3-4 years down the line. I don't think his decline is going to happen during his rookie deal here. He's still in his prime and in terms of speed/defense I don't see any signs of this decline being particularly imminent. I wouldn't give him a long term deal either but you can't just take 4+ WAR out of your team and expect to replace it with a platoon of two below average regulars. 

Phillips is one of the best defensive players in the sport.  Can he give you a 680ish OPS vs righties?  
 

4+ WAR is overstating things a bit.  His current fWAR is 2.9.  Saying he is a 4+ WAR guy is inflating him some.  I think it’s fair to say 3+ WAR guy. 
 

He has been worth 1.7 more fWAR than these 2 in far more games.  Can the 2 of them scrape together a 2.5 WaR platoon?  I think it’s possible.

My biggest apprehension is that Phillips would play more of that platoon.  
 

The defense would remain top level.  The offense is where the questions are. Is Mullins a 700-740 OPS guy or a 730-780 OPS guy?  That’s the big question for me.

Either way, I think we have enough options at CF to be ok there if trading Mullins means we get good young pitching and we keep our best prospects.

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That's a complete turnover in the outfield.    That usually doesn't happen, especially for a team that contended the year before.  We'll see.   I do expect a lot of turnover in both the infield and outfield, just not to that degree.

I think, to truly contend, there needs to be a lot of turnover on this team.

The good news is that a lot of that can come from within and that is going to happen anyway.