2022 Prospect Rankings by wRC+ (>95)

[Master Guns]

Pulled some data from Scout the Statline and thought others may be interested in seeing.  Their version doesn't allow you to sort and filter which is why I created a separate version. This list is filtered to only show those with wRC+ 95 and above. 

 

2022 Orioles Prospect's Ranking wRC+

 

Source:

Scout the Statline - 2022 Prospect Leader Board

More info on Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+)

 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Master Guns
URL

[Master Guns]

The next tier of prospects that didn't make the list above  (Criteria = between wRC+ 85 - 95)

Name (Age) - wRC+

Angel Tejada (18) - 93.2

Anderson De Los Santos (18) - 92.7

John Rhodes (21) - 92.6

Heston Kjerstad (23) - 92.2

Elis Cuevas (17) - 87.7

Julio Herrera (21) - 87.4

Joseph Ortiz (23) - 86.6

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Master Guns said:

The next tier of prospects that didn't make the list above  (Criteria = between wRC+ 85 - 95)

Name (Age) - wRC+

Angel Tejada (18) - 93.2

Anderson De Los Santos (18) - 92.7

John Rhodes (21) - 92.6

Heston Kjerstad (23) - 92.2

Elis Cuevas (17) - 87.7

Julio Herrera (21) - 87.4

Joseph Ortiz (23) - 86.6

Just so I’m clear, is this projected wRC+ at the major league level?   I’m pretty confused how Ortiz could be below several other guys on this list, and where his 86.6 wRC+ comes from.  

[owknows]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just so I’m clear, is this projected wRC+ at the major league level?   I’m pretty confused how Ortiz could be below several other guys on this list, and where his 86.6 wRC+ comes from.  

Just quickly checked Joey Ortiz's WRC+ because I thought that number (and the rest) looked remarkably unremarkable.

 

Ortiz's actual WRC+ according to Fangraphs, is 116

[Master Guns]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just so I’m clear, is this projected wRC+ at the major league level?   I’m pretty confused how Ortiz could be below several other guys on this list, and where his 86.6 wRC+ comes from.  

That’s a great question. I have inquired with the owners of the data set. 
 

I thought he was an outlier as well. Odd based on current production. 

[Master Guns]

1 hour ago, Master Guns said:

That’s a great question. I have inquired with the owners of the data set. 
 

I thought he was an outlier as well. Odd based on current production. 

 @Frobby Their response 

“Projected peak production at the MLB level based on 2022 MiLB production, relative to player age/level.”

I responded and asked specifically about Joey Ortiz, but nothing yet. 

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, Master Guns said:

 @Frobby Their response 

“Projected peak production at the MLB level based on 2022 MiLB production, relative to player age/level.”

I responded and asked specifically about Joey Ortiz, but nothing yet. 

Thanks!   Personally, I think their algorhythm is probably very crude.  Obviously, by the above it only takes 2022 MiLB production into account.  It doesn’t seem to account for sample size.  To be ranking Jud Fabian over Gunnar Henderson based on his three weeks in the minors is essentially insane.  

[Master Guns]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Thanks!   Personally, I think their algorhythm is probably very crude.  Obviously, by the above it only takes 2022 MiLB production into account.  It doesn’t seem to account for sample size.  To be ranking Jud Fabian over Gunnar Henderson based on his three weeks in the minors is essentially insane.  

Yeah, 100% agree. However, their actual “rankings” don’t include Jud. I’m sure they require a minimum number of ABs, but not sure what that is. 
 

Also, their response regarding Joey Ortiz stated his age weighed heavily in their algorithm. Adding that he only has a few years to reach typical player peak. Curious how Fangraphs takes age into their calculations. 

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, Master Guns said:

Yeah, 100% agree. However, their actual “rankings” don’t include Jud. I’m sure they require a minimum number of ABs, but not sure what that is. 
 

Also, their response regarding Joey Ortiz stated his age weighed heavily in their algorithm. Adding that he only has a few years to reach typical player peak. Curious how Fangraphs takes age into their calculations. 

What Fangraphs calculations are we talking about?  They show his actual wRC+ for the leagues he played in, and a Steamer projection for what his wRC+ would be for 2022 if promoted.   They also show some ZiPS projections for 2022-24 that don’t include wRC+.   As I recall, the ZiPS projections for future seasons aren’t updated during the season, so they aren’t too meaningful for a guy like Ortiz who has 485 PA in AA/AAA in 2022 compared to 384 PA in short-season A, high A and AA prior to 2022.  

Their point about Ortiz’s age makes sense.  You do need to look at the fact that there was no minor league baseball in 2020, and he missed most of 2021 with shoulder surgery and apparently was still feeling the affects at the beginning of this season.  You can’t really expect any algorhythm that is being applied to all minor league players to take all that into account.   (They may have factored in the missed 2020 season in some way, I don’t know.)

[LookinUp]

I don't know enough about the details, but when I looked at that data I thought to myself "now we discuss why this data is wrong."

lol. This stuff is so hard to do algorithmically, or any other way for that matter.