Farm System - End of 2023

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Alasdaire said:

I have freely admitted multiple times that I'm speculating. But it seems like they actively wanted to go underslot. And it has become pretty clear they're not interested in drafting pitchers that early. So I'm speculating that their philosophy here involved going into the draft actively targeting an underslot position player at 1:2 because they wanted to take Mayo/Baumler later and because they think pitchers are too risky as a rule.

Was Kjerstad a good pick? We don't have data to properly evaluate Kjerstad. But we have data to show that other position players that signed for less $ than Kjerstad and were highly regarded at that time are good: Veen, Hassell, and Crow-Armstrong.

Fair enough. I just think they're going into every draft trying to maximize value rather than trying to go under slot so they can get other guys later. 

Heck, I'm not convinced they didn't do that this draft with Holliday even though he got paid more than Jones. I'm not sure Jones didn't demand something like slot and the O's had a better deal.

I obviously don't know, but the point is value, not going under slot on purpose.

[geschinger]

2 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

Fair enough. I just wonder whether they even tried to get a number from these prep bats. There were so many good HS position players in this class that I scratch my head at coming away from the 1:2 pick with Kjerstad even if you are trying to go underslot. Hopefully Mayo makes it all worth it.

While they've shown a preference for college bats Elias has shown a willingness to go HS for the right players.  He did it before in Houston and he did it with JH this year.  

1 hour ago, Alasdaire said:

Maybe they legitimately thought that Heston Kjerstad was better than Jordan Walker, Zac Veen, Robert Hassell, Pete Crow-Armstrong, etc. That would put them in the minority. We can't say whether they were wrong because of Kjerstad's time off.

That is only true for Veen.  He's the only one the majority usually had well above Kjerstad.  On several of the rakings Hassell and Kjerstad would be one after another.  Walker wasn't even in round 1 for a lot of the pre draft analysis and Crow-Armstrong was almost always ~5-10 picks later than the Kjerstad/Hassell.    I can't say I remember Crow-Armstrong ever being mentioned on Orioles Hangout as someont the O's should consider at #2 even in the underslot context.  I do remember Walker as someone to look at for the pick that became Westburg.

[btdart20]

I'll play...  Here's my top 15.

1. Holliday 

2. Mayo - basically attrition ahead of him

3. 2023 #1 - Another prep SS?  (I get the security/projectability of position players, but it sure would be nice to slot an SP in here!)

4. Povich - He could push Mayo and Holliday IF 1) he adds velo, 2) they don't take the next step, 3) we completely disregard TANSTAAPP...  but we can't.  So, here he sits.

5. Basallo - How's only 20 days over 18?  Is he the next 1B prospect?

6. Beavers - 6-8 were tough for me.  I saw the Delmarva game last night and they all had really good ABs.

7. Fabian - Fabian probably has the highest floor considering his defense.

8. Young - May have the most untapped talent.

9. Johnson

10. 2023 #2 - Another rep OF?

11. Kjerstad

12. Baumler

13. Hernaiz - Ortiz-lite? 

14. Bencosme - Vavra 2.0?  Looking for more power next year.

15. McDermott

 

[Frobby]

I don’t expect perfection in draft choices.  Elias’ hit rate appears to be very high so far.  That’s good enough for me.  As to Kjerstad, yes I think next year is make or break for him.  I won’t be surprised if he starts next year at Bowie even though he’s been subpar at Aberdeen.