Mateo's Bottom of the Eighth (Infield in 2023 talk)

[LookinUp]

I understand the logic of those who say the O's should go for the best defensive alignment of Henderson (3b), Mateo (SS) and Ortiz (2B). I certainly get it and think it could work.

But Mateo's wRC+ is 83. His OBP is .267. His total WAR is 2.3 and heavily carried by defense. The guys behind him all project to be good to very good defensively. Urias has a wRC+ of 96 and plays a position where his likely replacement is a better defender (even though he's good). Urias is less good at 2B, so the averagish bat isn't going to hold up there.

We also have tremendous depth in the infield with real upside. Westburg supposedly has good range and certainly a better bat at 2b. Ortiz, according to Tony, has jumped Westburg as a prospect. Norby has 26 HRs in ~115 games. Hernaiz has had a good year. One of our best prospects (Mayo) is a 3B. We just drafted another 3B with real upside and the #1 overall pick was a SS.

I don't see the O's playing Mateo and Urias over guys who will get on base much more often and still play good defense. I see them trading high rather than diminishing their value by making them utility guys. 

The only questions for me are 1) exactly where they all play, 2) whether we trade any young guys in big deals and 3) whether we try to squeeze another year of service time out of Ortiz specifically. 

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Will you understand the eagerness when Keith Law puts Ortiz in his top 50 prospects and projects him to be an above average ML SS?

I'm not equating him to Gunnar Henderson, but his season has been beast for the last 3 months and his glove is supposed to be superb. He doesn't have Mateo's range (who does), but he has the rest of his defensive game from what I've heard.

Won't change much for me.

He's a guy with minimal AAA time, who has missed time over the last few years, and really only has performed as an elite prospect for a few months now.

Now that's not to diminish what he has done, and his potential, but I'm not handing over a starting spot to him in a year I want to make the playoffs.

Honestly, at this point in the organization's development, where I expect to compete for the playoffs every year, I don't expect a ton of rookies to be handed starting spots on Opening Day.  Because they're going to have to be really, really good prospects to be better than what they're replacing, and if they're that good as prospects, they're probably good enough to manipulate their service time.

[LookinUp]

Barring injury, the rookies won't be handed spots. They'd be the better options, IMO.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Barring injury, the rookies won't be handed spots. They'd be the better options, IMO.

I guess that's kind of the point.  Just for example, Mateo and Urias are being discussed in this thread.  BWAR has them both over 3 WAR for this year, and neither is doing anything to suggest they can't replicate that next year.

Do I look at a guy like Ortiz and just say he's for sure to get 3 WAR next year?  No, I don't.

About the only prospect I would have said that about that's come up through our farm system recently is Rutschman.

Now, if Urias hits like he has the last few months early next season and Ortiz continues to rake in AAA, the equation starts to change.  But I'm not going to start "demoting" 3 WAR players over 100 ABs in AAA.

Now, again, a guy like Adley or Gunnar has a different equation.  And if the player being replaced is Rougned Odor or Pedro Sandaval that's a different story too.

[Tony-OH]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know this thread has been used as a jumping off point for another discussion of the 2023 defensive alignment, but I would like to take a ten second pause just to admire what Mateo did in that half inning.  It really was a spectacular sequence of plays.  

Here’s the third great play he made that inning:

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/akil-baddoo-lines-out-to-shortstop-jorge-mateo

I'll be honest, I had no idea what McDonald meant by "He covers more ground than kudzu!" 

In case others were wondering:

"Known as “mile-a-minute” and “the vine that ate the South,” this creeping, climbing perennial vine terrorizes native plants all over the southeastern United States and is making its way into the Midwest, Northeast, and even Oregon."

https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/united-states/indiana/stories-in-indiana/kudzu-invasive-species/
 

But yes, that is covering some serious ground. 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, I had no idea what McDonald meant by "He covers more ground than kudzu!" 

In case others were wondering:

"Known as “mile-a-minute” and “the vine that ate the South,” this creeping, climbing perennial vine terrorizes native plants all over the southeastern United States and is making its way into the Midwest, Northeast, and even Oregon."

https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/united-states/indiana/stories-in-indiana/kudzu-invasive-species/
 

But yes, that is covering some serious ground. 

If Big Buck Hunter taught me anything, it's that a Kudzu is an African animal, similar to a gazelle.

[maybenxtyr]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I guess that's kind of the point.  Just for example, Mateo and Urias are being discussed in this thread.  BWAR has them both over 3 WAR for this year, and neither is doing anything to suggest they can't replicate that next year.

Do I look at a guy like Ortiz and just say he's for sure to get 3 WAR next year?  No, I don't.

About the only prospect I would have said that about that's come up through our farm system recently is Rutschman.

Now, if Urias hits like he has the last few months early next season and Ortiz continues to rake in AAA, the equation starts to change.  But I'm not going to start "demoting" 3 WAR players over 100 ABs in AAA.

Now, again, a guy like Adley or Gunnar has a different equation.  And if the player being replaced is Rougned Odor or Pedro Sandaval that's a different story too.

Not that your opinions are wrong, but if they keep pretty much the same team where does the offense get upgraded?

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, maybenxtyr said:

Not that your opinions are wrong, but if they keep pretty much the same team where does the offense get upgraded?

Full seasons from Rutschman and Henderson.  Hopefully, bounceback/growth from Mountcastle/Hays.  Getting Odor off the team, and one of Urias/Henderson/Ortiz the majority of ABS at 2nd.  Maybe a better back up catcher.

There's plenty of room for growth for the guys in house.  That's why it's nice to be a young team.

I, personally, if I'm looking to upgrade from outside of the organization, I'm looking much more on the pitching side.

[maybenxtyr]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Full seasons from Rutschman and Henderson.  Hopefully, bounceback/growth from Mountcastle/Hays.  Getting Odor off the team, and one of Urias/Henderson/Ortiz the majority of ABS at 2nd.  Maybe a better back up catcher.

There's plenty of room for growth for the guys in house.  That's why it's nice to be a young team.

I, personally, if I'm looking to upgrade from outside of the organization, I'm looking much more on the pitching side.

I don't disagree about the pitching.

 

The last 2 weeks has shown to me that the offense really needs improvement to get in the conversation with Toronto and NY. It's hard to compare anything to Tampa because they seem to win no matter what.

 

I think there's going to be some jostling of the roster this winter.  I guess they could trade young prospects but that doesn't seem like something that Elias would do unless it's for a top flight pitcher. 

 

It would be difficult to replace Odor and not be better.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest, I had no idea what McDonald meant by "He covers more ground than kudzu!" 

In case others were wondering:

"Known as “mile-a-minute” and “the vine that ate the South,” this creeping, climbing perennial vine terrorizes native plants all over the southeastern United States and is making its way into the Midwest, Northeast, and even Oregon."

https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/united-states/indiana/stories-in-indiana/kudzu-invasive-species/
 

But yes, that is covering some serious ground. 

We have a ton of kudzu around the DC area.  You’ve probably got it where you live, you just haven’t noticed it.  

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We have a ton of kudzu around the DC area.  You’ve probably got it where you live, you just haven’t noticed it.  

I picked up a new sickle just a couple of weeks ago for mine.

[RZNJ]

44 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Won't change much for me.

He's a guy with minimal AAA time, who has missed time over the last few years, and really only has performed as an elite prospect for a few months now.

Now that's not to diminish what he has done, and his potential, but I'm not handing over a starting spot to him in a year I want to make the playoffs.

Honestly, at this point in the organization's development, where I expect to compete for the playoffs every year, I don't expect a ton of rookies to be handed starting spots on Opening Day.  Because they're going to have to be really, really good prospects to be better than what they're replacing, and if they're that good as prospects, they're probably good enough to manipulate their service time.

Urías certainly isn’t playing 3B with Henderson and Mateo on the team.   His value probably is diminished at 2B.  What is your plan?

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Not that your opinions are wrong, but if they keep pretty much the same team where does the offense get upgraded?

Magic fairy dust!  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Magic fairy dust!  

Bleier took it with him.

[Pickles]

12 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I don't disagree about the pitching.

 

The last 2 weeks has shown to me that the offense really needs improvement to get in the conversation with Toronto and NY. It's hard to compare anything to Tampa because they seem to win no matter what.

 

I think there's going to be some jostling of the roster this winter.  I guess they could trade young prospects but that doesn't seem like something that Elias would do unless it's for a top flight pitcher. 

 

It would be difficult to replace Odor and not be better.

Look if they consolidate and trade Hays and Westburg for example for a "big bopper" in LF, I'm not inherently opposed to such a thing.  I'd probably cheer it on.

But I'm not sure if those kinds of deals are out there, and I'm all for maximizing the assets currently in the organization, and, again just for example, taking a 3 WAR Gold Glove SS and turning him into a super utility guy, so I can fast track a prospect, doesn't do it for me.