Do we actually need a TOR starter?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I don't expect Grayson to be anything close to a TOR next year.   I expect growing pains.   I think you should expect him to pitch like a #5 starter.   Patience will be required.   But he'll certainly be good enough to keep us in most games and look special at times.

I think Grayson was very ready to be an above average major league pitcher almost from the jump when his season got sidetracked.   He was absolutely dominating AAA hitters.   I would never expect a rookie pitcher to be a TOR starter right from the start, but it happens often enough.   TORs tend to show themselves pretty quickly.  Look at Alex Manoah, for example.  

However, I don’t think an aspiring contender can go into the offseason with a rookie TOR as Plan A.
 

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Grayson was very ready to be an above average major league pitcher almost from the jump when his season got sidetracked.   He was absolutely dominating AAA hitters.   I would never expect a rookie pitcher to be a TOR starter right from the start, but it happens often enough.   TORs tend to show themselves pretty quickly.  Look at Alex Manoah, for example.  

However, I don’t think an aspiring contender can go into the offseason with a rookie TOR as Plan A.
 

He had two starts where he went 6 and 7 respectively that I would call dominant.   The rest were 5 innings or less.  Some were good.  Some were very good.   Is 5.1 IP with 3 hits and 3 walks along with 11 strikeouts dominant?   I'm not sure.    Starts where he was lights out with low walks totals and high strikeout totals were not that many.    Personally, I see two starts I consider dominant at Norfolk.   One he completed 6 and gave up 2 runs but walked 1 and struck out 9.   His best start, IMO, was 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 walks, 0 runs, and 10 strikeouts.   There aren't many like that one.   In fact, there really isn't another one like that one.

[pdiddy]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I think a lot of this is correct.  As you said, great talent is always welcomed.

The question is, what should you be willing to pay for that knowing that you have outside variables that allow guys to be better than perhaps they really are.

Given the considerations you put forward, I’d pay a lot of money in FA but not in prospects. At least not going into the season. Trade deadline is another matter if there’s a crying need.

Edited September 23, 2022 by pdiddy

[Jammer7]

I still want that TOR. I want the the guy that everyone knows gives us a leg up against the TOR in a playoff game.

I suppose it depends on whether or not you believe that Kremer and Bradish are who they appear to be the past six weeks or so. And can Lyles continue to compete with his mediocre stuff? None of those three are what I consider potentially TOR kind of guys. Means can be a 2-3 type when he comes back, but Grayson is the only guy I see who can be a legit #1.

My problem is not winning games as much in the regulars season. I want to go in and dominate game 1 and 4 of a series in the post season. Set the tone with seven strong innings and keep the pen fresh. A reliable arm like that makes up for other mediocrities and youthful inexperience. Spend the money. 

[Jim'sKid26]

The ToR guys are most useful in short playoff series and in the WS when they can cover 30+% of the innings. Once you are in the playoffs starting pitching is king. The ToR guys really earn their money matching up against the other teams SPs and beating them. 

Now, to answer the question asked in the OP; yes, if you think you are a playoff team next year you need one. Especially if you think you can take all the chips at the end of the season. It's worth the money, IMHO. 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Jim'sKid26
spelling and punctuation

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He had two starts where he went 6 and 7 respectively that I would call dominant.   The rest were 5 innings or less.  Some were good.  Some were very good.   Is 5.1 IP with 3 hits and 3 walks along with 11 strikeouts dominant?   I'm not sure.    Starts where he was lights out with low walks totals and high strikeout totals were not that many.    Personally, I see two starts I consider dominant at Norfolk.   One he completed 6 and gave up 2 runs but walked 1 and struck out 9.   His best start, IMO, was 7 IP, 2 hits, 0 walks, 0 runs, and 10 strikeouts.   There aren't many like that one.   In fact, there really isn't another one like that one.

Before the injury, Grayson had thrown 56 innings, 33 hits, 13 runs (all earned), 14 walks, 80 strikeouts, 1 home run allowed, .478 OPS against.  If that’s not dominant, I guess I don’t know what is.  The only issue was how he’d do if the team let him go deeper in games.  But limiting his innings was the organization’s decision, not anything relating to how he was pitching. In my opinion, they were conserving his innings for Baltimore.   But it didn’t work out due to the injury.

So, do I expect Grayson to make a lot of 7 inning starts next year?   No, because the team won’t let him.   Do I think he could post an ERA below 3.00 and strike out 11-12 batters per 9 IP?   I think that’s very possible.   

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Before the injury, Grayson had thrown 56 innings, 33 hits, 13 runs (all earned), 14 walks, 80 strikeouts, 1 home run allowed, .478 OPS against.  If that’s not dominant, I guess I don’t know what is.  The only issue was how he’d do if the team let him go deeper in games.  But limiting his innings was the organization’s decision, not anything relating to how he was pitching. In my opinion, they were conserving his innings for Baltimore.   But it didn’t work out due to the injury.

So, do I expect Grayson to make a lot of 7 inning starts next year?   No, because the team won’t let him.   Do I think he could post an ERA below 3.00 and strike out 11-12 batters per 9 IP?   I think that’s very possible.   

No fault of his own but dominating for 5 innings is easier than doing it for 6 and 7.

[Orioles0615]

Yes we need a TORish arm and an impact bat. Elias didn’t do his job if we don’t get both this offseason. 
 

resigning Lyles and bringing back Mancini is not acceptable 

[Roll Tide]

Maybe they trade for Alcantara

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

No fault of his own but dominating for 5 innings is easier than doing it for 6 and 7.

Of course.  

[EddeeEddee]

Obviously right now this team needs more hitting than pitching, but that could change fast.  

This team needs one or two more starters -- especially if Lyles leaves; especially if Means, Grayson and Wells need more recovery time; especially Hall is nowhere near being ready.  Does have to be  TOR guys?  Not necessarily.  But even if Lyles stays -- because Lyles is an effective innings eater and not a difference maker -- I can't see how they can't add at least one good starter.  

If we're happy with the O's being a really good 4th place team then we don't need to pursue more pitching.  The teams that go deep into the playoffs have pitching depth.  They may not have a Verlander or Scherzer, but they don't wonder who is starting tomorrow -- and, barring injuries, they don't wonder if they have enough decent arms to take them further into October.  

 

[Hallas]

The 2012-2016 Orioles won a lot of games with 2 good starters but without 1 ace.  So I guess the answer is we don't need an ace, but without one we probably need 2 starting pitchers that can give us what Tillman and Chen gave us.

 

At the end of the day there a lot of approaches to team building that can be successful.  I think there's merit to both approaches.

 

I also think the playoff advantages of an ace are overblown.  Even in a short series without a need for a 5th starter,  I'd say it's good to have 2 good pitchers.  If there is a huge drop-off between your ace and the #2 pitcher, your team might be favored over 2 games if you have a good pitcher that keeps the game close against their ace, and a second good pitcher that's better than the opposing team's #2.  The #1 and #2 pitchers are likely pitching twice anyway in a competitive series.  Maybe with an ace in a 7 game series, your ace gets to pitch a 3rd time, but unless it's the world series that hinders his availability for the next round.

 

Also, in the playoffs, weird things happen.  Like the shadow of Joe Saunders out-dueling prime Yu Darvish in a 1 game do or die wild card game.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Hallas

[jrobb21613]

I’d like to see us target guys that are young and coachable with years of control. 

[Roll Tide]

So I think we need to figure it out.  I think they minuet decide if they need to upgrade from Lyles.

Trying to figure out what the regular 5 man rotation looks like.

Bradish, Kremer, G Rod, ____________, and Lyles or his replacement.

I kinda think they should move Wells back to the pen to try to keep him healthier. It would give us another dominant pen arm to go along with Tate, Perez, and the mountain. I guess Hall becomes the Akin role and Akin gets a bump up. Hall could also go back to AAA. 
 

You also have Means coming back and Watkins who is preArb. 
 

Im wondering if they move anybody in a deal.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Roll Tide

[Roll Tide]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

So I think they need to figure it out.  I think they might decide if they need to upgrade from Lyles.

Trying to figure out what the regular 5 man rotation looks like.

Bradish, Kremer, G Rod, ____________, and Lyles or his replacement.

I kinda think they should move Wells back to the pen to try to keep him healthier. It would give us another dominant pen arm to go along with Tate, Perez, and the mountain. I guess Hall becomes the Akin role and joins Akin. Hall could also go back to AAA. 
 

You also have Means coming back and Watkins who is preArb. 
 

Im wondering if they move anybody in a deal.