I've made my decision

[Aristotelian]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are a lot of ways they could go about the starting IF next year that would make me happy.

I do think you have to consider what it could do to Henderson if you put him at SS and move him for Holliday.  Does that bother him knowing it could hurt him in negotiations?  I’m not saying it’s a reason you don’t do it, just saying I think it deserves consideration.

You also wonder how many rookies they are willing to put out there from day one?

For me, the only things I feel confident about are not wanting Mateo as the everyday SS and not spending money or making trades for an IFer of any kind.

Are you suggesting starting Gunnar at SS then moving to 3B would be worse for his ego or negotiation leverage than never letting him play SS?

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Are you suggesting starting Gunnar at SS then moving to 3B would be worse for his ego or negotiation leverage than never letting him play SS?

Yes clearly.  He would get paid more, in all likelihood, as a SS.  There is more positional value there.  

Holiday will be here by 2025.  By the time Henderson is a FA, it will have been 3-4 years since he had played SS. No one would consider him a SS in all likelihood at that point.  
 

Now, if you sign him long term this doesn’t matter but it’s something that could cause an issue.  Remember, Manny didn’t really like being viewed as third baseman.  He wanted to be a SS.  It can cause issues.  Again, not saying it will and not saying you don’t make this move because of this but it’s something to keep in the back of your mind imo.

The Orioles didn’t draft Holliday to play other positions.

[wildcard]

Elias doesn't have to make a decision between Gunnar and Mateo this off season.   He can have both.  And knowing the way Hyde plays his players both will likely play SS next season if they are both with the O's.

Elias/Hyde may want to see Ortiz and Westburg in ST before they make a decision.  Both have options.  

Mateo and Urias are out of options.  I am sure Elias will listen to trades on both this offseason.  But he does not have to pull the trigger.   He can take in information in ST and then decide whether to trade an infielder.

Sulser and Scott were traded by Elias last spring on April 3rd.  Just before the season began.

Edited September 25, 2022 by wildcard

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Orioles didn’t draft Holliday to play other positions.

No one knows if this is true.   Holliday has the arm  and speed to play CF.  Mullins will be his walk year in 2025.

Elias may have drafted Holiday as the best player available that they wanted to pay.

Edited September 25, 2022 by wildcard

[Jim'sKid26]

I think a case can be made that Mateo is an excellent defensive SS.

According to Fangraphs:

He's 3rd in DRS at 14, behind only Miguel Rojas (15) and Jeremy Pena (15).

He's tied for 5th in UZR at 3.7 with Ha-Seung Kim. He's behind Amed Rosario (7.4), Rojas (5.2), Xander Bogaerts (4.6) and Willy Adames (4.4).

He's tied for 4th in OAA (10) with Rojas. Behind Dansby Swanson (17), Francisco Lindor (14) and Nico Hoerner (13).

He's 4th in RAA at 8. Behind Dansby (17), Lindor(14) and Nico (13).

It doesn't seem likely he wins a GG but he's in the neighborhood. 

He leads the league in SB with 33.

If we rank these SS by OPS+:

Bogaerts -136

Lindor - 127

Adames 120

Swanson 113

Hoerner - 112

Rosario 107

Kim 103

Pena 95

Mateo 81

Rojas 72

So in that context of elite defensive SS, Mateo is in the top 10 by offensive metrics. I think you keep Mateo at SS next year unless you get overwhelmed with a trade proposal.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes clearly.  He would get paid more, in all likelihood, as a SS.  There is more positional value there.  

Holiday will be here by 2025.  By the time Henderson is a FA, it will have been 3-4 years since he had played SS. No one would consider him a SS in all likelihood at that point.  
 

Now, if you sign him long term this doesn’t matter but it’s something that could cause an issue.  Remember, Manny didn’t really like being viewed as third baseman.  He wanted to be a SS.  It can cause issues.  Again, not saying it will and not saying you don’t make this move because of this but it’s something to keep in the back of your mind imo.

The Orioles didn’t draft Holliday to play other positions.

Gunnar's value won't be higher at short if he isn't very good at short, but he's excellent at third.  Remember the year Manny was a shortstop?  That's the one with the -10 rField on bb-ref.  Now, I think Henderson is going to be a more than passable shortstop, but we haven't seen a lot of him there yet, and he's very young.

Nobody drafts a high-round shortstop like Holliday to play somewhere else.  But it happens all the time. Just don't know how an 18-year-old is going to mature and fill out.  Mountcastle played 226 games at short in the minors.

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I think a case can be made that Mateo is an excellent defensive SS.

According to Fangraphs:

He's 3rd in DRS at 14, behind only Miguel Rojas (15) and Jeremy Pena (15).

He's tied for 5th in UZR at 3.7 with Ha-Seung Kim. He's behind Amed Rosario (7.4), Rojas (5.2), Xander Bogaerts (4.6) and Willy Adames (4.4).

He's tied for 4th in OAA (10) with Rojas. Behind Dansby Swanson (17), Francisco Lindor (14) and Nico Hoerner (13).

He's 4th in RAA at 8. Behind Dansby (17), Lindor(14) and Nico (13).

It doesn't seem likely he wins a GG but he's in the neighborhood. 

He leads the league in SB with 33.

If we rank these SS by OPS+:

Bogaerts -136

Lindor - 127

Adames 120

Swanson 113

Hoerner - 112

Rosario 107

Kim 103

Pena 95

Mateo 81

Rojas 72

So in that context of elite defensive SS, Mateo is in the top 10 by offensive metrics. I think you keep Mateo at SS next year unless you get overwhelmed with a trade proposal.

There's no question Mateo is a very fine defensive shortstop.  The question is whether the O's would be better off with him playing there and OPSing .650, or Henderson's (likely) less impressive glove there with an OPS potentially 200 points or more higher.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes clearly.  He would get paid more, in all likelihood, as a SS.  There is more positional value there.  

Holiday will be here by 2025.  By the time Henderson is a FA, it will have been 3-4 years since he had played SS. No one would consider him a SS in all likelihood at that point.  
 

Now, if you sign him long term this doesn’t matter but it’s something that could cause an issue.  Remember, Manny didn’t really like being viewed as third baseman.  He wanted to be a SS.  It can cause issues.  Again, not saying it will and not saying you don’t make this move because of this but it’s something to keep in the back of your mind imo.

The Orioles didn’t draft Holliday to play other positions.

Right wouldn't playing SS and moving to 3B be better than never playing SS?

Unless we are going with Mateo, I would go with Gunnar at SS, see how it goes, and go with whomever makes the team best when Holiday is ready. 

[Can_of_corn]

20 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Gunnar's value won't be higher at short if he isn't very good at short, but he's excellent at third.  Remember the year Manny was a shortstop?  That's the one with the -10 rField on bb-ref.  Now, I think Henderson is going to be a more than passable shortstop, but we haven't seen a lot of him there yet, and he's very young.

Nobody drafts a high-round shortstop like Holliday to play somewhere else.  But it happens all the time. Just don't know how an 18-year-old is going to mature and fill out.  Mountcastle played 226 games at short in the minors.

Jeter wasn't very good at short.

[tntoriole]

40 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There's no question Mateo is a very fine defensive shortstop.  The question is whether the O's would be better off with him playing there and OPSing .650, or Henderson's (likely) less impressive glove there with an OPS potentially 200 points or more higher.

It also could mean Urias 690 OPS will play third rather than Gunnar’s 200 points more. 
 

The bat comparison for the overall team is not between Henderson and Mateo, it is between Mateo and Urias. 
 

[vab]

This is dependent on how much they can upgrade the offense overall. If they can do enough at other spots to upgrade then you can afford to carry Mateo's bat at short. If not, then you have to sacrifice some defense. 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

No one knows if this is true.   Holliday has the arm  and speed to play CF.  Mullins will be his walk year in 2025.

Elias may have drafted Holiday as the best player available that they wanted to pay.

Elias has made it clear, many times, that they view him as a SS and that was a big reason they took him.  If he wanted a CFer, they take Jones.

[Sports Guy]

54 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Gunnar's value won't be higher at short if he isn't very good at short, but he's excellent at third.  Remember the year Manny was a shortstop?  That's the one with the -10 rField on bb-ref.  Now, I think Henderson is going to be a more than passable shortstop, but we haven't seen a lot of him there yet, and he's very young.

Nobody drafts a high-round shortstop like Holliday to play somewhere else.  But it happens all the time. Just don't know how an 18-year-old is going to mature and fill out.  Mountcastle played 226 games at short in the minors.

Well, all indications are he will be good at SS, so I don’t think that’s an issue and certainly won’t be for him.

And yes, it can happen.  But you have to consider it here.  You are dealing with a potential generational talent in Henderson and you have to think of things like this imo.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, tntoriole said:

It also could mean Urias 690 OPS will play third rather than Gunnar’s 200 points more. 
 

The bat comparison for the overall team is not between Henderson and Mateo, it is between Mateo and Urias. 
 

There are more choices than that.  They could acquire someone else to play third.

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, tntoriole said:

It also could mean Urias 690 OPS will play third rather than Gunnar’s 200 points more. 
 

The bat comparison for the overall team is not between Henderson and Mateo, it is between Mateo and Urias. 
 

You're right, assuming Urias is the 3B.  Right now the difference in OPS between the 2 is 50 points.  Career wise it's 90 points.  No one can predict the future but I have more confidence in Urias putting up the same or better numbers than I do Mateo.  Moving forward I am hoping for better offensive numbers from every infield spot.  I think Mateo's value is highest right now.  We'll see what Elias thinks.  Henderson is either going to be the 3B or SS.