I've made my decision

[Sports Guy]

Here’s the thing I think that is being overlooked and it’s a very simple thought.

The guys in the minors are better than the guys in the majors.

I know that sounds like a simple thing to say but let’s really think about that for a moment.

For most of the last 25 years, the Orioles have been an organization that struggled with talent.  The minors haven’t been good and the ML Rosters have been very limited.  
 

But now, we have some capable, perhaps even above average guys in the majors and players in the minors that are better than those guys.  We aren’t used to this.  So what happens?  We overrate the talent on the field because it’s what we see and we don’t believe in the talent in the minors and find reasons why.

Before being called up, people on here said don’t call up Henderson because he’s so young.  Why does that matter?  You are ready when you are ready. The DBacks got Lawlar to AA this year.  He’s young.  So what?  If he’s checking boxes and he’s ready, no reason to wait.

I just think Os fans, generally speaking, have this “we cant have nice things” mantra in the back of their heads and don’t want to believe we actually have something better than what we see right now.

 

[LookinUp]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am not commenting of who should be moved.  (Not just yet.)   Just pointing out that what they are making should not be the reason they are moved.   None of these guys are so expensive that the O's can't afford them.

Its more about how to put a championship team together.

Right. I'd agree that it wouldn't be a factor if the existing options were clearly better, but the only potentially clearly better aspect of their games is defensive and/or speed. The offensive profile of all of our young guys is superior to Mateo's, and likely superior to Urias'.

Bottom line, if I'm forced to choose, I'd take all of Henderson, Ortiz, Westburg and Norby above Mateo and Urias. Vavra's another story, but his left handedness could be an attribute since all but Henderson are RH hitters.

A real luxury would be to have Mateo as a util guy, but I just think he has more value in a trade than as a util guy.

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Here’s the thing I think that is being overlooked and it’s a very simple thought.

The guys in the minors are better than the guys in the majors.

I know that sounds like a simple thing to say but let’s really think about that for a moment.

For most of the last 25 years, the Orioles have been an organization that struggled with talent.  The minors haven’t been good and the ML Rosters have been very limited.  
 

But now, we have some capable, perhaps even above average guys in the majors and players in the minors that are better than those guys.  We aren’t used to this.  So what happens?  We overrate the talent on the field because it’s what we see and we don’t believe in the talent in the minors and find reasons why.

Before being called up, people on here said don’t call up Henderson because he’s so young.  Why does that matter?  You are ready when you are ready. The DBacks got Lawlar to AA this year.  He’s young.  So what?  If he’s checking boxes and he’s ready, no reason to wait.

I just think Os fans, generally speaking, have this “we cant have nice things” mantra in the back of their heads and don’t want to believe we actually have something better than what we see right now.

 

Who said don't call up Henderson?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Who said don't call up Henderson?

There were people, both on here but also on social media.  
 

And also, a lot of us wanted him called up several weeks before.  Not a lot wanted that either.  “He wasn’t ready”, stuff like that.  
 

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There were people, both on here but also on social media.  
 

And also, a lot of us wanted him called up several weeks before.  Not a lot wanted that either.  “He wasn’t ready”, stuff like that.  
 

You know as well as I do that Orioles twitter is by and large, a complete dumpster fire.  Uneducated fans who don't know much.  

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There were people, both on here but also on social media.  
 

And also, a lot of us wanted him called up several weeks before.  Not a lot wanted that either.  “He wasn’t ready”, stuff like that.  
 

People may have been saying that in May. Once he was proclaimed the top prospect and we were still contending in August, all I remember is the speculation about whether today would be the day, leaking his whereabouts etc. I literally do not remember anyone at the time in OH or Twitter saying he was too young. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

You know as well as I do that Orioles twitter is by and large, a complete dumpster fire.  Uneducated fans who don't know much.  

That’s true but that’s true when you have any group of people talking about things like this.  Just some spots are better and more intelligent than others.

That said, my post is about Os fans in general. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Here’s the thing I think that is being overlooked and it’s a very simple thought.

The guys in the minors are better than the guys in the majors.

I hope that will prove true, but we don’t know if it’s true or not.  We certainly have some guys putting up good numbers in AA and AAA.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I hope that will prove true, but we don’t know if it’s true or not.  We certainly have some guys putting up good numbers in AA and AAA.

I can almost guarantee it isn't true as a blanket statement.

I find it odd that a lot of the same people who have said "You can't build strictly through the farm system" have simultaneously the least amount of doubt concerning the prospects' transition to the majors.

I hate to be Nostradamus: But some of those prospects, and yes even top 100 guys, are going to wash out.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

 

I find it odd that a lot of the same people who have said "You can't build strictly through the farm system" have simultaneously the least amount of doubt concerning the prospects' transition to the majors.

 

These things have nothing to do with each other.  Just an awful comparison.

 

[foxfield]

My reaction to this conversation is that the Orioles have some really nice problems and like many areas of baseball, how they choose to maximize value on the field is going to take Elias' grade to the next level.  There are so many factors in this that it is impossible to know today.  This offseason will be the most important offseason in quite awhile.  Will the Orioles lock up any of the kids?  Will they trade any?  Will we be able to tell what they think of say Holliday?

I can see all of this impact the decisions facing the future infield.  

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I hope that will prove true, but we don’t know if it’s true or not.  We certainly have some guys putting up good numbers in AA and AAA.

It’s 100% true.  They are definitely more talented players.  I agree it’s not 100% that they will be more successful.  Lots of things come into play when talking about success and some of it has nothing to do with ability and talent.

[MCO'sFan]

By the end of 2023 I want our INF to be 3B - Henderson, SS - Ortiz, 1B - Westburg and 2B - Norby. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s 100% true.  They are definitely more talented players.  I agree it’s not 100% that they will be more successful.  Lots of things come into play when talking about success and some of it has nothing to do with ability and talent.

How do you know they’re more talented? Mateo was a top 100 prospect three years in a row, for example.  

My point is simply this — if you have a player who is around major league average or better, replacing him with a successful minor leaguer carries some significant risk that the replacement won’t be as good.   I’m not saying there aren’t several circumstances where you take that risk.  But it’s foolish to pretend the risk isn’t there.
 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How do you know they’re more talented? Mateo was a top 100 prospect three years in a row, for example.  

My point is simply this — if you have a player who is around major league average or better, replacing him with a successful minor leaguer carries some significant risk that the replacement won’t be as good.   I’m not saying there aren’t several circumstances where you take that risk.  But it’s foolish to pretend the risk isn’t there.
 

Rankings only mean so much and they sure as hell don’t trump performance.

Look at what these guys are actually doing. I agree that Mateo is talented but so are lots of guys.  He can’t hit. He’s just not good at it and he really never has been.

Look at what Ortiz and Norby and Westburg, etc…are doing.  It’s not like they are doing fairly well..they are dominating. Maybe they don’t have 80 speed or a 70 arm like Mateo but so what?  Flashy, shiney things like that are nice but are only part of the equation.

The all around talent and performance of these guys has been great.