Potential trade for Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Fair enough.  We may have a better chance of getting someone considered a little more risky.    We can also afford to take some risk.  Is he the perfect target?  No.    

Well, I think a lot of teams are going after him despite that risk.

We have people talking about 30+M a year and signing him for several years. 
 

Sure, you may take the chance on a 2 year deal but no way he’s only signing for 2 years this time around.

He will very likely sign a regrettable contract. 

[Rbiggs2525]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I think a lot of teams are going after him despite that risk.

We have people talking about 30+M a year and signing him for several years. 
 

Sure, you may take the chance on a 2 year deal but no way he’s only signing for 2 years this time around.

He will very likely sign a regrettable contract. 

I agree with Rondon but was giving a comparison to Burnes in terms of cost of money and prospects. One name I keep coming back to is Lucas Giolito as a buy low option. White Sox defense is horrid and we may be able to include Hays, Mateo, or Urias.

[Jim'sKid26]

For me, Burns is more valuable and really is the one to target. He'll be 28 all of 2023. He's been healthy this year and is likely to pitch more than 200 innings when it's all said and done.

11-8, 3.11, 10.9Ks/9, 2.4W/9; xFIP= 2.94, FIP/xFIP= 3.27/2.94

He made $6.5M in ARB1 year, he's Arb2 in 2023 and a FA in 2025. So he's going to get about $12-13M next year in ARB2, No telling in 2024. 

He's a ToR guy who is at his peak. The O's should be in "win now" mode in 2023. He makes a ton of sense for this team.

I'm not good at prospect packages so I won't guess what it would take. But if he's available, get it done.

[Just Regular]

Spot-checked Baseball Trade Values and was a little surprised they guess Burnes around 3X Woodruff.

MIL Arms Median Surplus Values: Burnes 95, Peralta 70 (four years for him), Woodruff 35

CLE Arms: Bieber 60, Espino 50, McKenzie 30

BAL Bats: Adley 140*, Gunnar 80, Mullins 40, Holliday 40, Cowser 20, Mayo 15, Hays 15, Westburg 15, Mountcastle 15, Santander 10

BAL Arms: Grayson 50, DL Hall 30

Cowser and Mountcastle for Woodruff?

Adley for Burnes and Woodruff?!

*The Adley $140mm surplus value guess presumes 6 more years, so chop 15-25% off if that reduces to 5 more years as seems likely.     If Adley misses Super Two and remains near MLB minimum in 2025, I suppose he might end up with "only" two Arb years before his Club control expires.   

[btdart20]

For what it's worth, I don't think anything less than a package around Holliday will get it done.  

Are we in a 'win now' mode?  If this is the only goal, I can see a trade with a Holliday package.

Or a 'build a perennial contender' mode?  If this is the bigger goal (and it's been stated), then no way the O's trade with a Holliday package.  We will be stacking talent at the bottom of the conveyer belt for the foreseeable future.  Not trading away top tier talent before it gets to the MLB.

Anything in a tier below is likely part of the discussion.  Hall and Mayo get dicey for me because I'm a sucker for controllable upside.  But Hall is a better fit trading pitching for pitching.  Brewers made out pretty well on the Hader trade, so maybe they'll consider a package around Hall.

[Moose Milligan]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35674271/corbin-burnes-arbitration-hurt-relationship-brewers

Here's hoping that Burnes hits the free agency market next year and, uh...well, we're not going to completely botch the offseason like we did this year.

Quote

"Obviously, it's tough to hear. It's tough to take. They're trying to do what they can to win a hearing,'' Burnes told reporters at spring training in Phoenix. "There's no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what [transpired] over the last couple weeks. There's really no way of getting around that."

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35674271/corbin-burnes-arbitration-hurt-relationship-brewers

Here's hoping that Burnes hits the free agency market next year and, uh...well, we're not going to completely botch the offseason like we did this year.

 

Imagine being worried about 750k to the point where you damage the relationship with arguably the best pitcher in baseball.

Dollar wise and penny foolish.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Imagine being worried about 750k to the point where you damage the relationship with arguably the best pitcher in baseball.

Dollar wise and penny foolish.

It'd be the Orioles that would do it if given the opportunity.  

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35674271/corbin-burnes-arbitration-hurt-relationship-brewers

Here's hoping that Burnes hits the free agency market next year and, uh...well, we're not going to completely botch the offseason like we did this year.

 

He’s two years from free agency.   Wouldn’t be surprised to see Milwaukee trade him at the deadline if they’re not in the race.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

It'd be the Orioles that would do it if given the opportunity.  

How much did they go to arbitration over with Caleb that one time?  300K?

[Moose Milligan]

I'm assuming that they know they can't re-sign him and trade him at the deadline for a rental.  Whether his new team picks him up will be remain to be seen.  

If he hits the market, he's my #1 choice.  I should know better than to get my hopes up but this is the type of talent we need.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Frobby said:

He’s two years from free agency.   Wouldn’t be surprised to see Milwaukee trade him at the deadline if they’re not in the race.  

Whoops, you're right.  

[Just Regular]

Does the man bun change anyone's take?    I saw one report the Brewers winning number was $10.01 million, so they were triangulating by the $10,000 to work for their favored outcome with a Cy Young.

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Does the man bun change anyone's take?    I saw one report the Brewers winning number was $10.01 million, so they were triangulating by the $10,000 to work for their favored outcome with a Cy Young.

 

Wow. Utter stupidity.  You wonder if he demands a trade now.

 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How much did they go to arbitration over with Caleb that one time?  300K?

Different situation.  But it happens all the time all over the league.  Just today there were two cases decided involving a $300 k dispute.

I am not someone who believes that teams should just cave in to whatever a player wants, or should always meet a player halfway.   You go as far as you think is reasonable, and draw a line.   If the player is being unreasonable, go to arbitration and beat him.  

Saying that, I don’t think Burnes’ demand was all that unreasonable.  I would have tried to settle this one without a hearing.  Of course, they may have tried.