Home vs. road in 2021 and 2022, and the real improvement in all aspects of the team

[Frobby]

The 2022 team improved by 15 runs on offense, 268 on pitching/defense.   Obviously, that’s a huge step up for the pitching/defense, just a modest improvement for the offense.   But how much of that is affected by the new LF dimensions in Baltimore?   The home/road splits give us some clues.

The 2021 Orioles at home had a .760 OPS, 122 HR, and scored 362 runs.   On the road, they had a .652 OPS, 73 HR, and scored 297 runs.

In 2022, the O’s at home had a .689 OPS, hit 79 homers, and scored 343 runs.   On the road, they had a .701 OPS, hit 92 homers, and scored 331 runs.

So, if we just look at road games, which were unaffected by the new OPACY dimensions, the O’s offense scored 34 more runs, hit 19 more homers, and had an OPS 49 points higher in 2022 vs. 2021.   That’s a pretty significant improvement.  Meanwhile at home they scored 19 fewer runs, hit 43 fewer homers, and had an OPS 71 points lower than last year.   It stands to reason that the new dimensions at OPACY were a large factor in that decline.   

Now let’s look at the pitching/defense side of things.   In 2021, at home the O’s allowed an .841 OPS against, 155 homers and 507 runs.  On the road, they allowed a .793 OPS against, 103 homers and 449 runs.   

In 2022, at home the O’s allowed a .710 OPS against, 74 homers and 335 runs.   On the road, they allowed a .739 OPS against, 97 homers and 353 runs.

So again, comparing road vs. road where the new OPACY dimensions were not a factor, the O’s pitching/defense allowed 96 fewer runs, 6 fewer homers and OPS against was 54 points lower.  That’s a really good improvement, but the home numbers are way more dramatic: 172 fewer runs, 81 fewer homers, and an OPS allowed 131 points lower.  

So what are we to make of this?   My takeaways are:

1.  Both the offense and the pitching/defense made significant real improvements in 2022 compared to 2021.

2.  The pitching/defense improved more than the offense did.  

3.  However, the new dimensions at OPACY skewed the amount of improvement to make it look more lopsided towards the pitchers/defense than it actually was.   On the road where the new dimensions weren’t a factor, the offense was better by 34 runs while the pitching was better by 96 runs.  At home, the offense was worse by 19 runs while the pitching/defense was better by 172 runs.  Obviously the dimensions had a lot to do with that.  

4.  At the same time, it’s clear that the new dimensions benefitted our pitchers more than it hurt our offense.  So, the move helped the Orioles on balance, as reflected in their 45-36 home record.   

There are two other things worth noting.  League-wide, runs were down by 61-62 runs per team on average. So in that sense, the O’s had a 76-run improvement in runs scored relative to the league average, despite playing in a significantly less favorable home environment than before.  The pitching/defense had a 207-run improvement vs. league average, a portion of which related to the new dimensions.   

Finally, there’s a reason why I’ve been alluding to the runs allowed by the “pitching/defense.”   It wasn’t just the pitchers, the defense was much improved.   How much?  It depends which flavor of defensive metric you like.  By Rtot, the defense improved by 54 runs (-48 to +6); by Rdrs, it improved by 67 runs (-30 to +37); by Fangraphs defense, it improved by 40 runs (-23.4 to +16.5); by OAA, it improved by 33 outs (-30 to +3); and by UZR, by 29 runs (-3.8 to +25.4).    Any way you slice it, the improved defense helped a lot.   

My ultimate conclusion is that the 2022 Orioles improved significantly in all facets of the game - offense, pitching and defense.   There’s lots of credit to go around.  

Edited October 12, 2022 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

Frobby just wrote a 1000 word essay with the conclusion being that the team significantly improved after winning 30 more games than last year.

In Frobby’s next post, he’s going to tell us about the science that he used to discover that water is wet.  

[DrungoHazewood]

I've seen numerous posts on Twitter lately saying things like "it's amazing that the O's had the same offense as last year but the pitching got way, way, way better." I've subtly reminded a few of them of the new park configuration and the league-wide humidor.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I've seen numerous posts on Twitter lately saying things like "it's amazing that the O's had the same offense as last year but the pitching got way, way, way better." I've subtly reminded a few of them of the new park configuration and the league-wide humidor.

I’m sure you were “subtle”.  

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Frobby just wrote a 1000 word essay with the conclusion being that the team significantly improved after winning 30 more games than last year.

In Frobby’s next post, he’s going to tell us about the science that he used to discover that water is wet.  

 

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m sure you were “subtle”.  

SG's got jokes!  Who is this guy?

@Frobbythank you for the breakdown. 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

The 2022 team improved by 15 runs on offense,

Thanks as always!    Do you have handy in your files how many of the 30 Clubs were able to improve on offense at all considering league-wide down 61-62 runs was par for the course?    

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Thanks as always!    Do you have handy in your files how many of the 30 Clubs were able to improve on offense at all considering league-wide down 61-62 runs was par for the course?    

I only looked at the AL, which for this purpose is appropriate because the NL instituted the DH this year so any comparison to last year would be distorted by that.  In the AL, I think the only other teams that improved offensively were the Yankees (+96 runs) and the Rangers (+82).   Every other AL team except the Orioles was down.